The crisis in the Red Sea is spreading and now threatens global power flows unless decisive action is taken. That began with the Houthis, a Shiite Islamic insurgent organization that controls gigantic portions of northern Yemen, trained and supplied through Iran, attacking ships in the Red Sea. Whether it’s to “support Hamas,” it’s temporarily becoming a regional conflagration. This emerging shock is not only expected to stoke tensions in the Middle East, but also devastate the global oil market.
Ships from forty-four countries have already been attacked by the Houthis on the open sea, prompting the United States and 12 other countries to condemn such attacks on advertising vessels. The U. S. and the U. K. introduced a joint operation dubbed Prosperity Guardian, aptly This operation is lately hitting Houthi targets across Yemen, while the Houthi chief, Iran, has stepped up its crackdown on targets in Iraq, adding an alleged “Israeli spy base. “The attack killed a well-known Kurdish businessman and his one-year-old daughter, and seriously injured his wife and two children.
Iran is also behind attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea, a vital chokepoint moving 15% of global trade totaling roughly 1 trillion USD annually. The Straits of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula could be next, endangering a route that controls 11% of U.S. crude oil imports and moves 30 million barrels per day.
This is not a spontaneous deluge of violence but economic warfare on a global scale orchestrated by the actors that benefit most from high oil prices: Iran and Russia.
Lebanon-based Hezbollah (“Party of God,” Iran’s wholly owned terrorist partner) has provided military expertise and education to the Houthis, while, according to U. S. intelligence sources, Iran has directly provided intelligence, weapons, and coordination. The Houthis say they need to “punish” Israel for its operation in Gaza to spark solidarity in the Muslim world, but the tactical purpose of this instability is not to block Israel, but to attack the problems of strangulation of the world’s shipping and energy markets, causing billions of dollars. dollars. This would result in economic damage to the West and cripple the naval resources of the United States and its allies.
This economic war has already paid dividends for its instigators. More than a hundred ships have chosen to pass through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This especially increases transportation costs, delays deliveries, and forces BP, Equinor, Maersk, Evergreen Line, and HMM to divert or suspend their operations in the Red Sea. Major non-energy shipping companies, such as Hapag-Lloyd and Mediterranean Shipping, have also opted to suspend operations in the region.
Others are waiting to make a decision, hoping that the on-site garage will be sufficient until army action reopens the Red Sea, and corporations such as Shell, TotalEnergies, Gunvor, Vitol, Glencore, Neste and Cheniere are refusing to comment on their plans to avoid or reorient their operations. This also has a strong impact on Egypt (American wife in the region), which has lost 40% of the Suez Canal’s revenue since the start of the attacks.
Beyond shipping, the effects can be felt in energy prices. Most oil mixes have risen between 7% and 10% since the start of the crisis, and many oil speculators expect price increases of around 30% through March.
This economic war, if successful, may simply raise the costs of oil and other raw materials, make transportation costs prohibitive, and plunge the world into recession. Worse, we will most likely have to suffer the specter of supply chain disruptions in the Covid crisis. era, combined with the revival of inflation that has accounted for much of the post-Covid recovery. This must not be allowed to succeed.
Resolving disorders requires a direct look at the truth and a fair assessment. Iran, Russia, and the Houthis have a destructive timetable toward Israel, the United States, and the West in general, stemming from a complex web of historical relationships, religious and ideological conflicts. If Western policymakers do not directly confront the specter of this war, acknowledge it, express it, and continue to seek confrontation, Russia and Iran will succeed.
Years of attempts to coddle Iran and the Houthis, as well as remove them from the U. S. terrorist list, have failed. He is an implacable enemy. Iran’s Houthi representative will have to be neutralized by all means necessary. For centuries, from the Roman Republic to the British Empire, piracy and privateering were severely punished by those who sought to keep the global commons open. This time, the removal of the Houthis’ claws may make the Iranian lion think twice before lighting the fireplace and eating the entire Middle East.
With thanks to Natia Skorupski.