Ukraine’s efforts to recruit more troops in its ongoing war with Russia intensified this summer, with signs that kyiv’s highly questionable mobilization efforts may be taking a turn.
Ukrainian army spokesman Bohdan Senyk told Reuters that recruiters had noticed a “positive trend” in May and June, with recruitment levels doubling from the last two months, providing figures.
And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a press convention on Monday that mobilization efforts were going “as planned,” even as he said educational services would be expanded to accommodate them.
While Ukraine welcomes any reinforcement of its troops, analysts say Kyiv’s task is limited to sending more troops to the front.
“What the Ukrainians are showing us now is not a surprise,” said George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D. C. , adding that some estimates recommend that Ukraine will generate at least 10 brigades through conscription. Each brigade comprises 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers.
Barros said the question for Ukraine is whether it can locate enough recruits but whether it can supply them with the equipment they need on the battlefield.
Mathieu Boulègue, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, said the effective deployment of incoming troops will be key.
He told Reuters that Ukraine wants to “smartly and successfully invest human capital where it’s needed. Because to the extent that you can drive a truck or empty toilets, you won’t be able to locate effective fighters as easily. “
Before the summer, Ukraine took steps to create a pool of potential recruits that it can draw on following the Russian invasion in February 2022.
The government has lowered the conscription age, limited exemptions from service, and forced living Ukrainian men to reflect on their obligations at home. He also allowed some prisoners to enlist in the army, a move he had not taken before.
But the procedure for deciding who can be forced to participate in the war effort has been controversial. Now in its third year, tensions have not eased over the issue.
On Monday, Ukrainian police in the western region of Lviv reported that someone threw a grenade at a conscription workplace in the city of Busk overnight. There were no injuries in the incident.
Media reports recommend that some men in Ukraine hide from recruiters, in an effort to be recruited.
Alyssa Demus, a foreign defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, a U. S. global policy think tank, said mobilization remains “a moot question” in Ukraine, as does the similar question of how to provide a replacement in service to the soldiers who have been in service for a long time.
Some Ukrainians have been fighting on the front lines since the start of the total war.
At this point, those veterans possess and enjoy important skills that cannot be easily replaced by recruits, a truth that Demus says has led Zelensky to think about how to meet the challenge of demobilization.
“There are new recruits who have no military training,” he said, adding that they also have no combat experience.
However, veterans spent years away from their families and antebellum life, and suffered intense stress.
“It costs a lot,” Demus said.
Despite the collective burden placed on this group, there is no express date for when these veterans will return home.
The US elections in November may simply mean a replacement of leadership in the White House, and that may just be for Ukraine.
The outgoing president of the Oval Office, Joe Biden, supported Ukraine’s fight against Russia.
His Republican rival and predecessor in the presidency, Donald Trump, could prove less trustworthy for Ukraine, as he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin at the start of the invasion and has continually claimed that he can end the conflict quickly.
Zelensky hopes on Monday that Ukraine will work with Trump if he wins the US election.
“I’m afraid of that,” he said, adding that he believes the “majority” of Trump’s Republican Party supports Ukraine.
Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War, said Ukraine has lately enjoyed “very bipartisan support” among U. S. lawmakers.
“I have to remain hopeful that we will continue toward Ukraine,” Barros said.
He said uncertainty over who will be the candidate for the White House in November could prompt European countries to invest more in defense.
The RAND Corporation’s Demus said what Ukraine is getting from the United States and other allies is part of a series of interconnected problems that Kyiv will have to deal with in terms of mobilization.
The military wants to be well supplied for troops to do their jobs, he said, and the public’s confidence in the quality of its troops influences people’s willingness to sign up for military service.
Barros said what the United States has promised to send to Ukraine will not include enough heavy equipment, such as tanks and armored personnel carriers, to equip all the expected brigades.
If that doesn’t change, incoming troops will be limited in what they can do for Ukraine, he said.
Geoff Nixon is editor of CBC’s national virtual bureau in Toronto. He has covered a multitude of topics, from real estate to generation to global events.
With Reuters
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