A review of the current state of the global wind energy industry, one of the major composites markets with the most significant expansion prospects, by Andrew Mafeld, founder and CEO of Connectra Global. This article published in the journal JEC Composites N°152.
7 minutes, 60 seconds
The use of wind turbine blade compounds has grown to become a giant and, indeed, global market, with a significant contribution to achieving global net-zero emissions targets by 2050. Let’s take a look at the state of the market, the demanding situations faced by players, and the recent expansions of the capabilities of turbines based on longer composite blades.
The Role of Wind Energy in Generating Electricity from Renewables Energy think tank Ember reported in April 2023 that in 2022, about 39% of the global electricity generated came from renewables, of which about 4% came from wind power. More than 60 countries now generate electric power from wind and solar power, and in some countries, wind power is a major contributor to electric power generation. For example, in the first quarter of 2023, electricity from onshore and offshore wind accounted for 32% of electricity. power generation in Germany and the largest source of electric power generation in the country.
The overall expansion outlook for the wind power market is strong. In its recently released 2023 annual report, the World Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicts that the cumulative capacity of global installed wind power will reach the 1 terawatt (TW) point by the end of 2023. It took 40 years to get there, but GWEC expects this figure to double in just seven years, reaching 2 TW by 2030. Even at this rate of immediate expansion, the point achieved is only about two-thirds of what would be needed. To meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s goals of “net zero by 2050,” expansion customers can potentially be even above if the source chain can deliver on its promises.
China leads in terms of capacity The geographical breakdown of the cumulative capacity of global installed wind power in 2022 is shown in the chart. China’s leading position, with 41% of installed capacity on both land and offshore, is due to large investments over the past decade. Europe has a share of around 28%, followed by the United States with 16% and the rest of the world (ROW) accounts for the remaining 15%.
Offshore wind capacity is expected to grow in 2022, at 64 GW, and accounts for less than 10% of total installed capacity in 2022. However, the percentage of marine capacity is expected to increase over the next five years from a projected global rate. 16%. The percentage of newly installed capacity in 2023 will increase to around 23% in 2027. Within offshore capacity, significant floating wind power capacity will begin to be installed from 2027 and is estimated through Bloomberg to reach five GW by 2030 and 25 GW by 2035.
Accelerating the growth of wind power capacity in ROWASWhy there will be a significant expansion in wind power capacity in the 3 largest existing regions (China, Europe, and the United States), the percentage of newly installed capacity in countries in the rest of the world is expected to be installed in the rest of the world. and the same is expected only in China.
Five-Year Growth Scenario GWEC’s expansion forecast for wind power capacity installation shows an average compound annual expansion rate of 8%, with annual installation set to expand from 115 GW in 2023 to 157 GW in 2027. If we allocate more, this leads to 1 TW of installs. Historically, the installation of wind capacity has not been a smooth curve. There have been ups and downs depending on a number of factors, in addition to government policy affecting subsidies and licensing. In 2022, the industry also faced major supply chain disruptions that affected turbine manufacturers’ ability to fulfill their ongoing tasks. The industry also faces a number of primary demanding situations for planned capacity increases.
Supply Chain Challenges A gigantic proportion of raw fabrics and parts for the wind industry come from China. China’s lockdown and the Covid-19 pandemic created many source issues that are now being resolved. But, on a more strategic level, a giant amount of raw fabrics, such as the rare earth metals neodymium and praseodymium, used in high-strength magnets in wind turbines, are mostly mined in China. Due to the expected increase in its use globally, shortages are expected until 2030. Similarly, the availability of composite raw materials can come under pressure if new investments are not made in glass and carbon fibers. Pultruded reinforcement stringers for wind blades have now become the most important application of carbon fiber, but blade manufacturers are somewhat wary of potential source issues traditionally similar to carbon fiber. Technical advances are being made to keep functions open, for example through the use of high-modulus glass fibers.
Turbine brands and wind farm installers face a shortage of installation expertise in terms of hard work and specialized apparatus, limiting the number of projects they can work on. In particular, there appears to be very limited availability of specialised vessels for the installation of offshore wind turbines.
Achieving Electric Power Load Parity with the Grid “Grid parity” occurs when wind power can produce electrical energy at a level load electrical energy (LCOE) less than or equivalent to the value of grid electrical energy. It is about achieving grid parity so that the industry can stand on its own without the need for subsidies. Wind turbines reached grid parity in parts of Europe in the mid-2000s and in the United States around the same time. According to the latest electricity rate study from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global weighted average LCOE of new onshore wind projects added in 2021 decreased by 15% year-on-year, from €0. 036/kWh ($0. 039) in 2020 at €0. 03. /kWh ($0. 033). In the offshore wind market, which experienced unprecedented expansion in 2021 (21 GW added), the global weighted average load of electrical energy fell by 13% year-on-year, from €0. 78 kWh ($0. 086) to €0. 068/kWh ( $0. 075). Array Achieving rate parity for offshore farms is one goal and the apparent solution lies in increasingly robust turbines with increasingly longer blades, thus reducing the number of turbines needed for a given wind farm size.
Achieving recyclability of wind turbine blades Producers of composite wind turbine blades are well aware that a sustainable solution will need to be found for the disposal of gigantic volumes of wind turbine blades from the decommissioning of older and older wind turbines. little. Industry estimates estimate that volumes are expected to reach around 25,000 tonnes through 2025. Various responses have been considered, such as changing blades in creative ways, such as to make bridges or bicycle shelters, for example, but a physically more powerful has to be discovered. In February 2023, a primary progression initiative, called CETEC (Circular Economy for Thermoset Epoxy Composites), was announced involving Vestas and epoxy manufacturer Olin, as well as other components to expand new reused fabric technologies to build turbines. wind. This will allow raw fabrics to be extracted that can be used to make epoxy resin. The objective of the order is to supply the generation shown on a commercial scale within a period of three years. Siemens-Gamesa installed its first recyclable blade in 2021. Their goal is to have a completely recyclable turbine available by 2040. In 2022, GE component LM Wind Power produced a fully recyclable 62 m blade at its Ponferrada (Spain) plant, Elium recyclable liquid polyurethane thermoplastic resin from Arkema, and high-performance glass fabrics from ‘Owens Corning. This was carried out as part of the ZEBRA (Zero waste Blade ReseArch) consortium launched in 2020. The blade is currently undergoing extensive testing at the LM test site in Denmark.
Green Composites and Tea ReductionAlong with recyclability, wind turbine blade manufacturers are turning to green raw materials such as bioresins and plant fibers. An example of this is the production of a “green” demonstrator gondola based on plant fibres/bioresin that he produced and installed in the Netherlands, commissioned through the DOT (Delft Offshore Turbine), one of the leading innovators in R
China leads the progression of wind power with increasingly longer blades In January 2023, MingYang Smart Energy presented an 8. 5 MW onshore turbine, with a blade length of 108 m. This turbine reaches a nominal power higher than the 7 MW turbines recently presented by Vestas and Siemens-Gamesa. Industry insiders see the option of creating onshore turbines with a capacity of 10 MW or more in the future. The offshore sector is where a lot of growth activity is happening, and Chinese turbine manufacturers have once again pushed the boundaries. Mingyang Smart Energy also introduced its MySE 18. X-28X offshore style in January 2023, moving to the top position replacing CSSC Haizhuang’s H260-18MW that it announced 2 weeks earlier. The MySE 18. X-28X has 140 meter long blades, compared to the 128 meter long CSSC Haizhuang style. In March 2023, Siemens-Gamesa’s 14 MW SG 14. 236 DD offshore wind turbine prototype, which is the company’s largest and most robust wind turbine to date, began supplying electrical power to the national control center grid in Østerild, Denmark. Its blades measure 115 meters long. In December 2022, at the same location, Vestas installed its V236-15. 0 MW marine turbine, also with 115 meter long blades.
Composites continue to allow for longer wind turbine blades. Composites remain the preferred option for building longer wind turbine blades. The Netherlands’ TNO, in its 2021 study on future wind blades to 2040, estimates that maximum blade life is likely not dictated by hardware limitations, but rather by the ability to care for the product. They consider blade life to reach 145 m and recommend that blades now be built on a segmented base to address handling issues. As blade life has increased, carbon fiber mast caps have seen significant expansion and are now used by many manufacturers for blades over 70m in length. However, wind turbine blade designers have been able to expand viable designs for blades of all lengths using only fiberglass. This is due to considerations about the load and capacity of the carbon fiber. Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie MAKE estimates that the percentage of turbines equipped with carbon fiber stringers installed in 2021 was 24%, remaining more or less constant since 2016. Development work will continue on both blade design and optimization. of resin selection. and fibers. either for functionality and hardness. Manufacturing innovations will also be aimed at ensuring consistent quality and the lowest cost imaginable.
Meeting the demanding situations of the wind energy industry Wind energy plays a key role in the decarbonization of our world. Over time, the industry has discovered technical answers to become cost-competitive and will continue to do so even when faced with demanding situations. ranging from their supply chain to the transport and installation of the largest turbines and the integration of a sustainable approach. In fact, the market demand is there and the next few years will show how the prospects of offshore wind can be exploited. This sector is set to become increasingly vital to the composites industry.
Sources: ember-climate. org www. irena. org www. lmwindpower. com www. siemensgamesa. com
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