Global stocks will remain obese as the fourth quarter approaches, regardless of the uncertainties and tensions surrounding the way governments are now handling the pandemic, and an election that is almost now well contested.
Thanks to the help of central banks, of course, and the fact that everyone also sees the coming year as a return to life, economically speaking, stocks are in the best position, Barclays Capital tells its clients.
The economy has returned strongly, led by China in the emerging world and the United States in the evolved world.
“WE. Election uncertainty is a major risk, but with the approval of the vaccine most likely until the end of the year and a strong recovery, we continue to prefer global actions to constant revenue,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of securitised rates and products. at BarCap.
Who buys bonds that pay a percentage part? One of the reasons the dollar is so strong is that Europeans and Japanese buy us constant source of income securities. But it’s not the first time And, of course, stocks, once the investor industry buys securities in Mexico, Turkey and Brazil.
So far, the magnitude of the uptick has been positive and surprising, both in China, where more and more people are walking around the city without a mask, and in the United States, where the hard labor market is returning in the form of restrictions and housing surprised. cut it off a pandemic.
With the return of the labor market, Barclays now expects an unemployment rate of 7. 3% in December.
America’s economic knowledge – the political press minimizes it – is “even more impressive,” Rajadhyaksha says, noting that the economy continues to recover despite the end of stimulus measures, and Congress is unsure of the final stimulus package.
Meanwhile, apart from economy number one, economy number two, China, is ahead of everyone else. Its retail sales returned to prepandemic levels in August, and the unemployment rate fell well below the government’s end-of-year target.
When it comes to election combat, and in fact it will be a metal cage party, volatility expectations are higher than they have been compared to the last 15 years, but they are not extreme, Columbia Threadwantle analysts say in a recent report. They present that investors remain the target of long-term goals rather than getting caught up in the headline drama surrounding Trump as opposed to Biden and whether or not the UK will return to closure. Investors want to look beyond political rhetoric. that appears in the headlines.
Here’s a look at your vision on the electoral front.
British investment bank Schroders voted in Biden’s favour, at least in terms of forecasts, and give Biden more than 60% to win the November election.
BNP Paribas analysts did not take sides, but said that if Biden won, he “could gain advantages in emerging markets. “China is about to do much better, at least from a sentiment point of view, because Biden is not expected to up the price. Biden said he has no plans to cut existing price lists right now, but that may change. Who knows?
“The market has been a rocket and projects what will happen in six to eight months, when there will be a vaccine and others will have started to return to work, not what will happen in the election,” says Todd Morgan. , president of Bel Air Investment Advisors. ” The Fed has done an impressive task to save this economy. “
Investors may worry.
In addition to a central bank that looks deeply into the markets (and what happens when they decline), equity valuations are traditionally high, especially for generation stocks; Still, investors don’t let tough days turn them off.
With near-zero interest rates, there are very few equitable investments.
Corporate people who know well and pay dividends and use them in addition to savings accounts as smart as money in a pillowcase.
Income-related real estate is largely due to closures and attitudes towards major cities that have been the scene of civil unrest.
Good quality bonds pay almost nothing, especially after inflation and taxes. Bond investors opt for speculative grade credits if they need returns.
“Ordinary stocks are the most attractive,” Morgan says. “Generation Y, which until now was absent, has now begun to invest in the market. There are also other people who are more bored than ever to invest in the market. It reminds me from 1999 to 2000, when we had a lot of housewives trading on the market,” he says, adding, “These housewives outperformed a lot of professionals when stocks accounted for a hundred times the profits. “
I spent 20 years as a journalist for the most productive in the industry, adding as a member of the Brazilian-based staff for WSJ. Since 2011, I have been focusing on business and making an investment in the