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According to Amundi Asset Management analysts, economies around the world may still be far from back to pre-pandemic levels, even if the worst of economic surprise has happened.
“In our view, economic functionality will progress through a slow recovery process with upward slope. In the central scenario, this translates into pre-Covid-19 grades that will be reached over several quarters, on average,” analysts wrote in a e.
“The back has passed, but the savings don’t seem to be coming out temporarily enough for a quick recovery,” they said.
Amundi has lowered its economic forecasts for 2020 and now expects GDP to shrink between 3. 5% and 4. 7% from the previous projection of a drop between 2. 9% and 4. 2%. As a result, the GDP expansion forecasts for next year have been “slightly revised upwards” between 4. 4% and 5. 7%, from 4. 1% to 5. 1% last year.
“After an uptick in post-closing activity since May and early June, the speed of recovery appears to have slowed and stabilized between July and August, which is visual in company data and comfortable ones,” Amundi analysts said. . .
“The recovery curve in indicators (high-frequency data) of productive activity, the labour market and customer sentiment has begun to flatten almost everywhere, without reaching pre-crisis levels,” they said.
Following the losses of the first part of the year, analysts warned that the recovery of the third quarter “seems to be enough for most economies to return to pre-crisis levels in the short term. “
Analysts, however, noted China’s exception, which said it “will most likely succeed at an expansion point until the end of 2019 until the end of 2020. “
The first cases of coronavirus have been reported in China, which has led the country’s government to take drastic measures to prevent it from spreading the disease. The latest knowledge publications have shown a continuous economic recovery in spaces such as the activity of the productive and service sector.
Moreover, knowledge of gross domestic product at the time of the quarter showed economic destruction through the coronavirus pandemic. Australia officially announced Wednesday that it had entered recession in the current quarter, and the country’s treasurer signaled the end of its record economic growth.
Other primary economies experienced worse declines, with the U. S. economy in the middle of the world. But it’s not the first time Falling to a record 32. 9% in the current quarter, while UK GDP in the current quarter fell by 20. 4%.
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