sezer66
An article from Ovi
The EIA continues to struggle to update its website on global oil production. Therefore, this month’s report is a shorter edition of previous articles, as the EIA’s updated International Energy Statistics for June and July are not available. Information from other resources such as OPEC, STEO, and country-specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, and China are used to provide short-term perspectives on production and the long-term direction of some of those countries and the world.
When STEO knowledge was used, the C-C ratio was calculated in all liquids. The average for the last six months through May used to allocate June and July production and, in some cases, August production.
Graphs of global oil production and projection are presented at the end of this article.
The existing foreign energy statistics for May have been correctly updated due to the lack of condensate production in the past Russian record and are used for this report.
Non-OPEC oil production in July rose to 520 Mb/d to 52,245 Mb/d, up 1,706 Mb/d from May. Nearly 500 Mb/d of the June rollup is similar to the EIA’s condensate correction for Russia in the EIA’s May report. Update of international energy statistics. In the EIA’s last May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.
Using STEO production data from November 2023 and EIA’s International Energy Statistics updated in May, a projection of non-OPEC oil production was made for the period from August 2023 to December 2024 (red chart). Production is forecast to reach 53,377 Mb/d in December 2024, up 969 Mb/d from the December 2019 peak of 52,408 Mb/d. August production is expected to increase to 27 Mb/d.
From August 2023 to December 2024, non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase to 1,105 units. Keep in mind that production is expected to be robust through May 2024.
Non-OPEC U. S. July production rose to 39,286 Mb/d from 455 Mb/d.
US non-OPEC production in August, using the same method described above, is expected to fall from 66 Mb/d to 39,220 Mb/d. From August 2023 to December 2024, production is expected in non-OPEC countries, the United States. until reaching 718 Mb/d.
It should be noted that December 2024 production is 384 Mb/d higher than the pre-covid peak of 39,554 Mb/d in January 2020.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production rose in September while falling in October. In September it increased from 210 Mb/d to 3,672 Mb/d, basically due to the commissioning of 4 offshore platforms and the decrease in maintenance, red markers. October production fell from 131 Mb/d to 3,541 Mb/d.
Production from the “pre-salt” marine region has been added to the map of Brazil, with blue markers. October production fell to 108 Mb/d, representing the peak of the overall 131 Mb/d decline in Brazilian production in October.
According to the source: “Much of Brazil’s oil comes from its ‘pre-salt’ region, where 11. 5 billion barrels of crude oil deposits lie beneath a thick crust of sodium chloride beneath the ocean floor. These deposits They are about two hundred kilometers from Rio de Janeiro and da Silva’s first term in office was discovered in 2006. Petrobras (PBR) now plans to expand another 11 platforms in these waters until 2027. However, production from the The region is expected to peak in 2027-2029, meaning many are wondering about the long-term prospects for oil production in Brazil.
According to the source, “Petrobras has a strategic plan for 2024-2028.
The production curve takes into account the access of 14 new platforms (FPSOs) during the 2024-2028 period, of which 10 have already been contracted. A new generation of platforms is being built, more modern, more technological, more effective and with fewer emissions.
Oil production, overall production, and oil and natural fuel production projections for 2024 have been approximately 100,000 bbls/d/boe higher than the previous plan, given the smart functionality of the fields, ramp-up forecasts, and the start of production. . new wells.
Comparing this graph to the existing pre-salt production shown in the Brazil graph of approximately 2. 775 Mb/d, production will not increase in the next two years. Starting in 2026, production will increase to one hundred Mb/d/year.
According to the EIA STE, Canadian production increased from 260 Mb/d in July to 4,605 Mb/d.
STEO forecasts that Canadian production increased in August before falling from Mb/d to 4,545 Mb/d in September due to fires in Alberta this summer.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that production in August increased by Mb/d to 4,117 Mb/d. Production fell in September to 4,103 Mb/d.
Every January for the past 4 years, Chinese production has seen a huge increase. In 2022, production jumped to 322 Mb/d between December 2021 and February 2022. However, according to the November EDRD: by 2024, China’s liquid production is expected. a solid at the 2023 point of 4. 6 m/d.
While China’s output expansion has been largest since 2018, it is arguably nearing its post-pandemic peak, as warned in November’s EDRD.
According to STEO, Kazakhstan’s production decreased from 119 Mb/d in July to 1,757 Mb/d.
STEO forecasts a drop in August to 1,707 kb/d and a rebound to 1,789 in September.
Mexico’s production in July was 1,915 kb/d, down 44 kb/d from 1,959 kb/d in June.
According to Pemex, Mexico’s oil production from August to October remained stable. Production in October was 1,923 Mb/d, 8 Mb/d more than in July.
Mexico recently revised its definition of condensate. This led the EIA to upload another 60 kb/d on average to Pemex’s report. The red markers come with the additional 60 kb/d.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that August production was unchanged at 1,805 Mb/d and then fell to 1,659 Mb/d in September (red markers). According to the November EDRD, production has plummeted due to unplanned shutdowns and equipment failures on several platforms. October production recovered to 1,798 Mb/d.
According to the NDP: “Oil production in October was down 3. 7% from the NDP forecast and 0. 7% from the year-to-date forecast. »
The recent production peak of 1,856 Mb/d appears to be close to Norway’s post-Covid production peak.
Oman’s production has risen sharply since the May 2020 low. However, production began to decline in October 2022. According to November’s STEO, Oman’s production in July fell to 2 Mb/d to 1,037. STEO forecasts that production will return to 1,039 Mb/d in August.
Qatar’s production in July remained unchanged at 1,322 Mb/d, likely due to a lack of up-to-date information.
The EIA’s November STEO report used to allocate Russian production from August to October, reducing production of all liquids to 0. 9339 to estimate C-C production. The 0. 9339 did not oscillate much between the Russian ministry’s pre-war average production and the production of all STEO liquids from October 2020 to September 2021. Production in October 9,868 Mb/d, a low of 5 Mb/d since September, orange markers.
Using knowledge from previous reports by Argus Media, the Russian production is presented from May to October. For the month of October, Argus reported that Russian crude oil production was 9,530 Mb/d, an increase of 30 Mb/d, blue markers. The 8% addition to Argus’ October crude provides a projected DC production of 10,292 Mb/d, which is an approximation of the Russian ministry’s pre-war estimate, the red markers.
Comparison of Argus’ crude oil knowledge with the most recent STEO projection indicates that the STEO estimate for Russian C C is halfway between Argus’ estimates for crude oil and C C. Before the war, the Russian ministry estimated that crude oil was still 404 kb/d higher than crude oil. the EIA’s estimate for C C. La Russia’s current proxy production in October is 424 kb/d higher than the EIA’s STEO estimate, only 20 kb/d higher than that of the beyondArray.
The IEA’s November OMR indicates that Russian crude oil production in October was close to 9,530 Mb/d.
US oil production in August increased from 94 Mb/d to 13,053 Mb/d, a new record of 53 Mb/d since November 2019. This increase is mainly due to accumulations in Texas, New Mexico and the Dakotas. North.
The dark blue chart, taken from the November 2023 STEO, represents the forecast for U. S. oil production. The U. S. from September 2023 to December 2024. Se expects production for December 2024 to be thirteen 440 Mb/d, 440 Mb/d above the November 2019 peak. thirteen 000 Mb/d.
The key thing to keep in mind in this updated graph is that production will necessarily remain stable until October 2024, when it reaches 13,222 Mb/d. Is it due to a production plateau in the Permian Basin?
The light blue graph represents the production STEO projection through December 2024 for the Onshore L48.
Global oil production in July, according to STEO, fell from 207 Mb/d to 81,708 Mb/d. (Green graphic).
This chart also projects global C+C production through December 2024. It uses the November 2023 STEO report as well as foreign energy statistics updated in May to make the projection. (Red markers).
The red graph forecasts that global crude oil production in December 2024 will be 83,027 Mb/d, 1,556 Mb/d below the November 2018 peak. Note that it is unclear to what extent the reduction is due to OPEC’s voluntary production cut. that Saudi Arabia reduced its production by 1 Mb/d in July. Currently, OPEC’s voluntary production cuts are in the range of 3,000 Mb/d.
Global US oil production fell from 419 Mb/d to 68,749 Mb/d in July. August production is expected to fall from 350 Mb/d to 68,399 Mb/d. December 2024 production of 69,587 Mb/d is 3,204 Mb/d. decrease compared to October 2018 production of 72,791 Mb/d.
Original publication
Editor’s Note: The bullet summaries in this article were selected through the editors at Looking Alpha.
This article written by