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A guest post via Ovi
EIA’s International Energy Statistics experienced a pause in reporting between its May 2023 and July 2023 reports. They resumed their appointments with the August update. This report updates the POB reports and charts for May, June, and July.
Below are a series of crude plus condensate (C-C) production tables, often abbreviated as “oil,” for non-OPEC countries. The tables are created data provided through the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are current as of August 2023. the most up-to-date and detailed data available on global oil production. Information from other resources such as OPEC, STEO, and country-specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway, and China is used to provide short-term information. long-term production perspectives and direction in some of these countries and in the world.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
In August, non-OPEC oil production fell in kb/d to 51,401 kb/d. The biggest declines were in Kazakhstan, Brazil and Russia.
Using data from the December 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period September 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,679 kb/d in December 2024, which is 249 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,430 kb/d. The current December 2024 output of 52,679 kb/d was revised lower by 407 kb/d than forecast in the November 2023 STEO.
From September 2023 to December 2024, non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase to 728 Mb/d. According to STEO, the main participants in this increase are expected to be Russia, Norway and Canada.
In August, non-OPEC production fell from 165 Mb/d to 38,348 Mb/d. September production is expected to increase to 366 Mb/d.
From September 2023 to December 2024, production in non-OPEC countries such as the United States is expected to increase to 670 Mb/d.
It should be noted that December 2024 production is 177 Mb/d lower than the January 2020 peak of 39,561 Mb/d.
At the top are the world’s 10 non-OPEC producers. The criteria for inclusion in the table is that all countries produce more than 1,000 Mb/d.
The increase in production in August for these ten non-OPEC countries was 3 Mb/d, while in all non-OPEC countries there was a reduction in production of 71 Mb/d.
In August 2023, those 10 countries produced 83. 8% of all non-OPEC oil production.
OPEC’s C + C production decreased by 244 kb/d in August while YoY it decreased by 2,279 kb/d. World MoM production decreased by 315 kb/d while YoY output decreased by 773 kb/d.
The EIA reported that Brazil’s production declined in Mb/d in August to 3,462 Mb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production in September increased from 210 Mb/d to 3,672 Mb/d, followed by a decrease of 131 Mb/d in October. According to the November EDRD, September’s production increased basically due to the increase of 4 offshore platforms and decreased maintenance.
December’s EDRD report provides no explanation for October’s drop. However, by 2024, EDRB states: “Crude oil production is expected to increase thanks to increased production at Buzios (Franco), Mero (Libra NW), Tupi (Lula), Peregrino and Itapu (Florim). Oil assignments are expected to begin at the Atlanta, Pampo-Enchova Cluster and Vida sites.
Production from the “pre-salt” marine region has been added to the map of Brazil, with blue markers. October production fell from 108 Mb/d to 2,722 Mb/d, representing the peak of the overall 131 Mb/d drop in Brazilian production. in October.
Much of Brazil’s next production expansion in 2023 will come from highly productive pre-salt fields. From March 2023 to September 2023, production from pre-salt fields increased to 467 Mb/d.
According to the EIA, Canadian production increased in Mb/d in August to 4,682 Mb/d.
STEO forecasts Canadian production to exceed 127 Mb/d in September due to last summer’s Alberta fires.
The Terra Nova Floating Production Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) restarted production in November according to this source and will add 27 kb/d to Canada’s oil output.
This chart shows the post-pandemic trend in bitumen production in Alberta based on knowledge provided through the Energy Regulator of Canada. Production from April 2023 to July 2023 was affected by excessive weather situations and factory maintenance.
According to OPEC’s December MOMR report: Crude bitumen production increased in October to 56 tb/d, month-on-month, while man-made crude increased to forty-five tb/d, month-on-month. In total, production of crude bitumen and man-made crude oil increased from 101 tb/d to 3. 3 mb/d.
The TMX pipeline continues to be plagued by problems. He encountered “very difficult” structural situations due to the hardness of the rock in a mountainous domain between Hope and Chilliwack. The Energy Regulator of Canada approved a waiver request to use a smaller diameter pipeline on this component of the route. Rejecting the waiver request would likely add an additional 55 to 60 days to the structural timeline.
The delay could push back the start date to the end of the second quarter of ’23 or the beginning of the third quarter of ’23.
The EIA reported that Chinese oil production in August increased from 37 Mb/d to 4,114 Mb/d.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that it fell in September to 4,103 kb/d.
Every January for the last four years, China’s production has taken a massive increase. In 2022 production jumped by 322 kb/d from December 2021 to February 2022. However according to the November/December MOMR: For 2024, Chinese liquids production is expected to remain steady at the 2023 level of 4.6 m/d.
While China’s output expansion has been largest since 2018, it is arguably nearing its post-pandemic peak, as warned in November’s EDRD.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s production decreased in Mb/d in August to 1,701 Mb/d.
STEO forecasts a rebound in October to 1,912 Mb/d.
The December MOMR reports that “crude oil production increased from 37 tb/d, month-on-month, to 1. 6 mb/d. NGL and condensate production increased from 17 tb/d, month-on-month, to 0. 3 mb/d.
Mexico’s production in August and September was 1,943 Mb/d, up 24 Mb/d from 1,919 Mb/d in July.
According to Pemex, Mexico’s oil production from August to October remained stable. Production in October was 1,927 Mb/d, 8 Mb/d more than in July.
Mexico has recently revised its definition of condensate. This has resulted in the EIA adding an extra 64 kb/d, on average, to the Pemex report. The red markers include the additional 64 kb/d.
According to the December MOMR for 2024: “Pemex’s total crude production decline in mature areas like Ku-Maloob-Zaap and Integral Yaxche-Xanab is forecast to outweigh production ramp-ups in Area-1 and El Golpe-Puerto Ceiba, and from a few start-ups, namely TM-01, Paki and AE-0150-Uchukil.
The EIA reported that Norwegian August fell to 1,813 kb/d.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Petroleum Authority (NPD) reported that September production fell to 1,659 Mb/d and then recovered to 1,798 Mb/d in October (red markers). The September drop is due to unplanned closures and device failures on several platforms.
According to the NPD : “Oil production in October was 3.7 percent lower than the NPD’s forecast and 0.7 percent lower than the forecast so far this year.”
Oman’s production rose very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, August’s output rose by 3 kb/d to 1,041 kb/d.
Qatar’s August’s output was unchanged at 1,322 kb/d, possibly due to lack of updated information.
The EIA reported that Russian C production in August was 9,935 Mb/d. Using knowledge from the November STEO report, Russian production is expected to rise to 10,016 Mb/d in November, orange markers. There is no indication that Western sanctions are affecting Russian oil. production.
Using knowledge from previous Argus Media reports, Russian crude oil production is presented from May 2023 to November 2023. For November, Argus reported that Russian crude oil production was 9,500 Mb/d, 30 Mb/d less than in October, blue markers. Adding 8% to Argus crude production in November yields a DC production estimate of 10. 292 Mb/d, which is an approximation of the Russian ministry’s pre-war estimate, the red markers.
Comparison of the Argus raw data with the latest STEO projection indicates that the EIA estimate for the C. C. is between Argus estimates for crude and C. C. Before the war, the Russian ministry’s estimate was 404 Mb/d higher than crude oil. The EIA estimate for C C. Existing Russian proxy production in November is 244 Mb/d higher than the EIA Estimate.
The November IEA OMR agrees with Argus that Russian crude production in October was 9,530 kb/d.
U. S. oil production The U. S. Embassy in September increased from 224 Mb/d to 13,236 Mb/d, as noted in the previous post. However, the production projections for 2024 reported in the previous post have been updated in this post.
The dark blue chart, taken from the December 2023 STEO, represents the U. S. oil production forecast. The U. S. Census of October 2023 to December 2024. Se forecasts that production for December 2024 will be 13,295 Mb/d, 145 Mb/d lower than forecast last month and higher than September 2023.
While total U. S. oil production is still in the U. S. While U. S. production increased to 224 Mb/d, onshore production of L48 increased to 10,815 Mb/d in September. Most of the Mb/d came from North Dakota, at 79 Mb/d.
The light blue graph represents the STEO projection for production through December 2024 for the terrestrial L48. From October 2023 to December 2024, production is expected to increase from 101 Mb/d to 10,930 Mb/d.
These six countries complete the list of non-OPEC countries with annual production of between 500 Mb/d and 1,000 Mb/d. It should be noted that the United Kingdom is added to this list, since since then its production does not exceed 1,000 Mb/d. 2020 and fell to a new low of 573 Mb/d in August.
Their combined production in August was 3,724 Mb/d, down 122 Mb/d from July.
Overall output in the six countries mentioned has been slowly declining since 2014 and appears to have accelerated after 2019.
Instead of dividing oil-producing countries into OPEC and non-OPEC, this segment divides countries into two teams based on their production capacity. The department will consist of the Big Three, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, and the rest, i. e. , the world’s oil manufacturers WITHOUT the Big Three. The largest manufacturer in the Remnant, lately Canada, produces less than a share of the world’s smallest manufacturer. The Big Three.
Production in the Big 3 peaked in April 2020 at 34,739 Mb/d. This increase was linked to a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia’s production. Post-covid, production peaked at 33,896 Mb/d in September 2022. The drop in production since then is due to cuts within OPEC countries.
August production from the Big 3 was down 426 kb/d to 31,888 kb/d and down by 2,000 kb/d from September 2022.
Production in the Rest has been slowly increasing since the low of September 2020, 43,039 kb/d. In February 2023 production rose to a post covid high 49,221 kb/d. Output in August 2023 was 48,812 kb/d.
Indexed above are the 12th largest oil manufacturers in the world. As of August 2023, those 12 countries produced 76. 6% of the world’s oil. Global oil production fell to 773 Mb/d annually. On a monthly basis, OPEC production decreased to 244 Mb/d while, on an annual basis, OPEC production decreased to 2,279 Mb/d.
Global oil production fell to 315 Mb/d in August, green chart. The largest cut came from Saudi Arabia (470 Mb/d), while Iran added 170 Mb/d.
This chart also projects global C C production through December 2024. It uses the December 2023 STEO report as well as foreign energy statistics to make the projection (red markers). It should be noted that production in December 2024 is lower than in February 2023.
The red chart forecasts that global crude oil production in December 2024 will be 82,390 Mb/d, 2,190 Mb/d below the November 2018 peak. Keep in mind that the sharp increase in production in the first part of 2024 may just be a sign that the EIA expects OPEC to reinstate some of its production cuts. However, this is contrary to the production cuts promised through OPEC on November 30, 2023.
Global production excluding U. S. oil fell from 409 Mb/d to 67,647 Mb/d in August. A rebound in production is expected in September. It should be noted that December 2024 production of 69,095 Mb/d is 3,648 Mb/d lower than October 2018’s production of 72,743 Mb/d and lower than February 2023’s.
Global US oil production from September 2023 to December 2024 is expected to increase to a total of 518 Mb/d.
This chart shows the overall rate of decline for 51 small oil-producing countries. It was followed by 52 countries. However, Nigeria has recently had a higher production and this production has been phased out. These countries were selected primarily because they were small and medium-sized manufacturers that have not reinvested much of their money to continue expanding production and have been in slow decline for a long time.
The OLS line is based on production from January 2006 to August 2022. It hasn’t been updated since August 2022 to see if those countries’ production would deviate from the calculated line. He seems to have become indifferent as several of them have done so. noted slight increases, <10 Mb/d, over the past year, from August 2022 to August 2023. Argentina and Gabon also increased their production over the past year.
As a percentage of the starting production rate of 19,500 kb/d in January 2006, the 475 kb/d/yr decline rate is 2.4%. If an average yearly decline rate of 2% occurs in all fields, this implies that a yearly decline rate of 1,650 kb/d across all World fields has to be made up by infill drilling. Saudi Arabia says their decline rate is 8% and infill drilling reduces it to 2%.
“Without drilling ‘to potential’ to offset production, Saudi oilfields would experience a natural decline rate of a hypothetical 8%. “
Original publication
Editor’s note: The abstracts of this article were selected through the editors of Buscando Alfa.
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