In a first U-turn, the German government signaled over the weekend that it would try to prevent the Polish government from supplying German-made Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukrainian army.
The green light for a Leopard 2 move, broadcast on French television by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, could see other NATO countries donate their own surplus Leopard 2s. There are many sturdy tanks stored throughout Europe.
But Poland can pass it and satisfy Ukraine’s request for a full brigade with at least a hundred Leopard 2 tanks. In fact, at present, Poland is one of the world’s leading buyers of new tanks.
With over a thousand of the newest tanks in the U. S. With the U. S. and South Korea expected to arrive in Poland over the next decade, the 250 or so Leopard 2s in the Polish military’s stock are expected to be surplus soon. and suffer, at worst, from a short-lived capacity deficit.
The Ukrainian military searched for Leopard 2 for much of the year, but Ukraine’s foreign allies prioritized offering the Ukrainians first artillery and air defenses, then an armored corps of workers and infantry fighting vehicles.
Germany holds the export license for the Leopard 2, and the country’s reluctance to launch explicitly offensive weapons for Ukraine has been an impediment to a major NATO effort to re-equip the Ukrainian army’s 4 tank brigades and dozens of tank battalions.
The UK and Poland defied Germany’s obstinacy earlier this month, when the two countries delivered Ukraine a dozen of their Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks, respectively.
The Challenger 2 is manufactured in the UK, so its export license is an issue. But there are only about 400 Challenger 2s, and 150 of them belong to the British Army’s exhausted tank regiments.
If Ukraine started rearming its tank corps, realistically, it would want Leopard 2. Finland, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands have also expressed their willingness to donate their Leopard 2 surpluses to Ukraine. Many of the same countries would likely be offering ammunition, spare parts and technical and exercise assistance for the exercise and a Ukrainian Leopard 2 brigade.
A U. S. Army M-1A2 tank
Therefore, the Polish launch in January represented a turning point. The Leopard 2 with its 120-millimeter gun, thick armor and sensitive top speed of forty-five miles per hour is one of the most productive and balanced tanks in the world. A Ukrainian brigade equipped with Leopard 2 and NATO-style combat and artillery vehicles would be more than adequate for even the most productive Russian tank brigade, and could spearhead a new Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.
And now it is almost certain that in the coming months the Ukrainian army will be able to establish its Leopard 2 brigade. Even if all other potential Leopard 2 donors outside Poland end up hesitating.
Poland has already promised Ukraine a dozen Leopard 2s and can easily promise a hundred or more. And donations would make a small dent in the Polish army’s tank stock in the medium term.
Two years ago, the Polish armored corps, which supplies tanks and crews to 4 tank brigades and six mechanized brigades, had about 250 Leopard 2s in various variants, as well as about 230 manufactured PT-91 tanks and about 320 ex-Soviet T-72s. The PT-91 itself is an advanced T-72.
That’s 800 tanks. As Russia became more competitive in the years leading up to its broader invasion of Ukraine starting last February, Poland presented one of the largest tank acquisition efforts in modern history.
Then, it lost $6 billion on 250 of the last U. S. M-1A2 SEPv3 tanks. In the US, with large-scale deliveries starting in early 2025. In December, Poland also signed a $3. 7 billion deal for 116 former American tanks. Marine Corps M-1A1.
Finally, delayed last year, Polish officials went shopping in South Korea, where the local industry produces a tank called the K-2 that is largely the equivalent of the Leopard 2 and M-1.
K-2 tanks of the South Korean army.
The Poles paid $5. 8 billion per thousand K-2s plus some of South Korea’s high-end K-9 howitzers and FA-50 soft fighter jets. The first 180 K-2s will come from factories in South Korea; Polish factories will build the remaining 820 from 2026.
“We just packed our bags with cash and [are] touring the world and looking to buy,” Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak, a staff leader for the Polish Armed Forces, told Breaking Defense. “We know that the strategic purpose is [for] Ukraine. “
Massive purchases of tanks allowed the Polish army to start donating its old tanks. T-72s first went to Ukraine in the spring. PT-91s followed them through the summer. The commitment of the Leopard 2 increased the number of Polish tanks for Ukrainian service to about 275.
But with nearly 1400 of the world’s tanks heading to Poland from the United States and South Korea, six hundred tanks more than Poland just two years ago, all of Poland’s oldest tanks are arguably on the verge of redundancy. That’s about 240 Leopard 2s and about 280 PT-91s and T-72s.
The first M-1s and K-2s were already in Poland, helping Polish crews exercise in the new tanks. Hundreds more will arrive in the coming years, with a massive increase in deliveries once the Polish K-2 rendezvous line is operational. in 2026.
Over the next two years, Poland could start donating all its old tanks (a hundred here, a hundred there) and suffer only a slight transient drop in its overall armor inventory. Even without its old Leopard 2s and Soviet-style tanks, until the end of the decade, the Polish army will have one of the largest tank forces in Europe.
Suffice it to say that Germany has not only legalized Poland to send a dozen Leopard 2s to Ukraine. It would possibly have backed a Polish-led NATO effort that can also send tank loads to Ukraine.
The only thing is how many tanks will come from Poland.