It would have been absurd to recommend that a small region like Gaza, probably devoid of significant natural resources, of its own political will, let alone sovereignty, deserved the highest vital geopolitical position on the planet.
However, the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza and the mythical resistance of the Palestinian people have altered our calculus – or our miscalculation – of what a beleaguered country can achieve, in terms of collective resistance, by absolutely changing the rules of the game.
However, it is still early to fully fathom the surely significant possible outcomes of the current upheaval resulting from the Gaza war and Resistance.
As Israel and the United States desperately seek to return to the prestige quo style that existed in the Middle East before October 7, the new emerging Palestinian leaders wish to usher in a new era of foreign relations, that is, new geopolitical actors, which They could, in turn, recruit new allies, with their own political ambitions and economic interests.
That said, 2023 was also rife with other major geopolitical shifts that will impact our world in the coming year; in fact, for many years to come.
These are some of the most significant geopolitical events, with the potential of having a long-lasting impact on international relations.
Agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran
One of them is the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The political reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran on April 6 took the region and the world by surprise, as the two Muslim neighbors had primary differences that culminated in a rupture seven years ago.
The rift between two Middle Eastern countries, Muslim and oil-producing, has impacted the geopolitical stability of the Middle East, led to increased foreign interference, and directly or indirectly contributed to existing conflicts.
The identity of the peace treaty mediator, China, was equally significant, as the opportunity allowed, for the first time in the region’s elegant history, Beijing to play the role of peacemaker, in a domain long ruled by the influence of the United States and the West.
The Saudi-Iranian deal has proven to be enduring, despite the ongoing conflicts and struggles that continue to shape the region.
Expansion of BRICS
Secondly, that of the BRICS.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) took their alliance to new heights in 2023.
The organization agreed on August 24 to allow an expansion of its club and will include, from January 1, 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In addition, the BRICS’ new progression bank is expanding, either in terms of club or general monetary capital.
According to information from the British company Acorn Macro Consulting, the BRICS members have surpassed the Group of Seven (G7) in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) calculated on purchasing power parity (PPP).
Why is this important?
The importance of the BRICS became more apparent after the February 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, as they allowed Russia significant room to maneuver economically beyond the limits of sanctions imposed through the West.
With China, too, facing a US-led trade war, BRICS has created new platforms for new major markets, concentrated mostly in the Global South.
With the growing polarization between the West and the East, and the Global North and the Global South, it was only natural that BRICS began to take on a greater political role with a more defined political discourse. This shall become even more apparent in the coming year.
The geopolitical importance of the BRICS lies primarily in their ability to create a tough new style of choice of economic, financial, and ultimately political platforms that will challenge Western hegemony in the world.
Getting Up and Falling
Three, is the rise and fall of international political actors.
Shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war began, Germany was the economic engine of Europe.
Despite the setbacks and difficult situations faced by the various economies of Western Europe, Europe appeared to be on track to fully recover from the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. While some analysts have warned of complacency and structural failures, Europe has persisted in its stimulus efforts.
Then the war in Ukraine began, which revealed Europe’s economic weaknesses – basically its dependence on power – as well as its geopolitical limitations, namely the balance between its political and military dependence on the United States, its dependence on power on Russia, and its economic dependence on China. .
Europe’s dream of reviving has probably turned into a never-ending nightmare. According to a study conducted through the Swiss National Bank and published last September, “the war in Ukraine has slowed European economic expansion and ‘significantly’ increased inflation across the continent,” Reuters reported. .
While Europe continues to struggle with this unenviable position, other countries that have been marginalized for many years due to their blatant political conflicts with Western countries themselves find themselves in a much more powerful position.
In fact, changing global and military dynamics have allowed countries such as Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso and others – mainly in West Africa and the Sahel region – to confront their former colonizers, in this case France, and redefine the concept of post-colonial sovereignty.
Venezuela, on the other hand, which was heavily sanctioned by Washington, is finally able to sell its oil on the international market, thus pivoting away from a grinding economic crisis, unprecedented in decades. This only became possible because of the global energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine.
All of these geopolitical shifts are likely to stay with us in 2024, leading to yet other significant changes to the world’s political map and, unfortunately, yet more conflicts, as well. Time will tell.