In a canoe, the 38-year-old father of 4 paddled through the murky waters, passing by his and his loved ones’ homes, the local hospital and school.
Only the ceilings are visible.
In Africa’s most populous country, communities and crops of sorghum, maize, rice and vegetables are under water, with farmers and aid workers warning of a possible food crisis.
Home to more than two hundred million people, the country already suffers from peak inflation and worrying degrees of food insecurity.
Now the scenario will worsen, with only about 110,000 hectares (272,000 acres) of farmland completely destroyed by flooding since August, according to the most recent government figures.
“The floods continue, but we can say with certainty that 60 to 75 percent of the production we expected will be lost,” Kabir Ibrahim, president of the Nigerian Farmers’ Association, told AFP this week.
“It’s monumental. Many other people are crying. “
More than 600 people have died and 1. 3 million more have been forced to flee their homes, according to the latest figures from Humanitarian Affairs Minister Sadiya Umar Farouq.
Flooding is not unusual in Nigeria during the May-November rainy season, but this year it has been excessive.
Officials and citizens blame climate change, but also poor planning and excessive discharge of water from dams, a procedure designed to relieve pressure.
“If you don’t open the water through the spillways, the dams will break,” Ibrahim said, and then “it would be like Pakistan. All of Nigeria would be underwater like Pakistan. “
Farmers were warned in advance, but it was not enough.
“We use forecasts and avoid planting in flood-prone areas,” Ibrahim said, “but now you can see that devastation is everywhere. “
As a result, Ibrahim, whose organization represents 20 million farmers, believes that “there will be more difficulties towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year. “
Year-on-year food inflation was already 23. 3% last month, partly due to indirect effects on the import-dependent country due to the coronavirus pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The unbridled lack of trust with armed men attacking rural communities has also forced many farmers to abandon their fields.
The World Food Programme and the U. N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said last month that Nigeria is among six countries facing a major threat of catastrophic degrees of hunger even before the floods.
Now, “the effect of flooding on food production is a real risk to the country and can lead to a primary food crisis,” said Hussaini Abdu, Nigerian director of the charity CARE.
FAO Representative in Nigeria Fred Kafeero said he was “deeply concerned” that food materials were expected to be low “due to the expected relief in family production. “
The aid official said the floods were also affecting livestock and were at increased risk of outbreaks of vector-borne diseases, such as cholera.
The floods only destroyed farmland, also prevented trucking and damaged roads and bridges, increasing pressure on food supplies.
“We expected inflation to stop with the (next) harvest, but now with the floods, it puts a big mark on our inflation expectations,” said Ari Aisen, IMF resident representative for Nigeria.
“It seems very serious, but it is difficult to make a judgment at this stage,” he told AFP, adding that it was early to assess, “there is a bullish threat of inflation, emerging food prices. “
The last major floods in Nigeria in 2012 claimed about $17 billion, according to the World Bank.
While immediate assistance is now needed, the International Monetary Fund has stated that it would be less costly to invest in preventive measures and policies.
Countries deserve to invest in “helping other people adapt to those kinds of occasions instead of using resources after the fact,” Aisén said.
But in the meantime, the government has said it is stepping up for affected communities.
President Muhammadu Buhari has approved the addition of 12,000 metric tons of cereals to a national strategic reserve.
But farmers are sure it will be enough.
Buhari limited rice imports in 2015 to increase local production and self-sufficiency.
For Ibrahim, the resumption of those imports “should be ruled out, if the scenario becomes serious. “
Weather forecast agencies have warned that there could be more flooding until the end of November.