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By Jonathan Spicer and Ali Kucukgocmen
ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Huseyin Goksoy, a tailor who was so pressured by starvation, the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, who was briefly bedridlydrided with a hernia, is increasingly concerned about his long road as Turkey struggles to reduce poverty.
He’s alone.
Although a two-month blockade ended in June, about 4 million Turks still rely on state aid to survive, while the most casual have lost the most money aid.
Surveys and educational studies paint a grim picture before the day President Tayyip Erdogan’s government is expected to lift the transitional ban on redundancies, in all likelihood as early as November.
Goksoy, 48, makes a mask to help cover the losses at the beginning of the year when he was unable to get a subsidized loan for small businesses because there was no guarantor in his conservative community in central Istanbul.
“People don’t dress when they’re not working, so I just cry all the time and five to ten lire ($1) a day, if so,” she says. “I still can’t send cash to my kids when they need it. . If I do a bad job, I’ll be hungry. “
Data and surveys show that concern and disappointment like this are unprecedented in the labour market. The most affected are the same Turks who have benefited from Erdogan’s years of social policy that have helped to particularly reduce inequality in sources of income.
A study by Turkish economists Ayse Aylin Bayar, Oner Guncavdi and Haluk Levent predicts that the number of impoverished Turks could double this year to about 20 million, and slow progress in reducing inequality over two decades.
This would well destroy the good fortune of the AKP party (AKP) of Erdogan’s Islamist roots and could prove its highest unwavering electoral base in the upcoming general election scheduled for 2023.
Goksoy, whose shop is near the house of the president’s training years, said he still supported the AKP, which would replace his brain if he thought the party was no longer honest.
Unsustainable
Erdogan said Monday that the economy will emerge more powerful from the pandemic even if its effects persist, adding that the hundred billion lire ($13 billion) government aid program has helped low-income households.
Representatives from the Presidency and the Ministry of Finance, which administers the aid, did not answer questions about emerging poverty.
The aid plan partly covers the salaries of many registered staff members and has funded some 2 million households in need. The main cities led by the main opposition party were to obtain other budgets and food supplies.
But Turkey’s mix of low-qualified labour in which a third of staff informally earn cash, a personal sector governed by small businesses, and public finances already strained during the 2018-2019 recession leaves the country especially vulnerable.
Turkish frustrated https://graphics. reuters. com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/TURKEY-POVERTY/yxmvjndlyvr/chart. png
Central bank reserves, which supported much of the pandemic reaction, fell dramatically and accelerated the fall of the Turkish lira to traditionally low levels, which in turn increases the costs of imported raw materials.
Under the law, Erdogan may extend the ban on dismissals for workers beyond November until mid-2021, but at a tax cost.
“These are sustainable policies,” said Guncavdi, an economist at Istanbul Technical University and co-author of the study that predicts an increase in poverty.
“When they return, there is a threat of turmoil with mass layoffs, an increase in deprivation, a proven circle of family structures, and a possible demonization of minorities and refugees. “
Turkey’s 3. 6 million Syrian refugees have faced negative reactions beyond recessions, and those who have remained unemployed this year had little protection network.
Retired florist Kemal Erdogan, 76, said this week that he supported the AKP, but added that with the fact that the deficient are becoming increasingly deficient, it is clear that Turkey is home to too many foreigners who “live longer than you and me. “
BLOCK ANXIETIES
An unprecedented job drop lasted after the closure in June and July, caused by staff who were not officially on the payroll, as the government’s knowledge showed Thursday.
Pandemic sequels for Turkishs https://graphics. reuters. com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/TURKEY-POVERTY/jznpnxazwpl/chart. png
A record 1. 4 million too discouraged to look for work, almost 3 times more than a year ago. Of those who had a task last month, almost part of them were “very afraid” of wasting it during the winter, according to a survey through Istanbul Economics Research.
Can Selcuki, managing director of the consultancy, said this likely reflects workers’ suspicion that they will be ignored “by the minute” when the firing ban is lifted. He added that for Erdogan, the ruling alliance had fallen to 44% in a vote this month, down from 46% in August after a summer rebound.
Turkey, like several other countries, banned redundancies in April when it also closed peak businesses, closed borders and long-distance travel, and followed partial home orders.
The big meetings stopped, leaving Mehmet Coskun, a wedding drummer without social security, just a third of his same usual concerts. “I don’t know what to do when my loan payments arrive,” he said. “Maybe I can sell water or blank buildings. “
According to the World Bank, those who lost jobs in the services, tourism and structure sectors are Turkey’s poorest families. However, the bank predicts that the poverty rate will rise less than expected in the Turkish study, to about 12% compared to 10%, partly contained through state aid.
A recent buildup of coronavirus cases in early May is just a cause for concern.
Meryem Yildirim, who opened a women’s clothing store in Istanbul two months ago, said a comeback to close his worst nightmare.
“All small businesses think that now,” said the mother of two, adding that she had obtained a loan to repay the rent and a second loan at the store.
(To see a graph of discouraged workers, here: https://tmsnrt. rs/32cZlmi)
(For a graph of employment and labour market participation, click here: https://tmsnrt. rs/3m7Kx03)
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(Additional report via Ezgi Erkoyun in Istanbul; edited via Emelia Sithole-Matarise)