(CNN) — A wave of new covid-19 variants is gaining ground around the world, raising fears of a winter snap.
In the United States, these are BQ. 1, BQ. 1. 1, BF. 7, BA. 4. 6, BA. 2. 75, and BA. 2. 75. 2. In other countries, the recombinant XBB variant has grown and appears to be driving a new wave of cases in Singapore. Cases are also expanding in Europe and the United Kingdom, where those variants have taken hold.
Dr. Peter Hotez, who co-directs the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, says he considers them together as variants of Scrabble because they use letters that score best in the board game, such as Q, X and B.
As EE. UU. se nears the fall, Covid-19 cases are declining. Normally, this would be an explanation for why expect the country to escape the waves of the past two pandemic winters. But virus experts worry that the downward trend will soon reverse, thanks to this herd of new variants.
Combined, variants accounted for nearly 1 in 3 new covid-19 infections nationwide last week, according to the most recent estimates from the U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. U. S.
Updated bivalent booster vaccines and antiviral drugs like Paxlovid continue to protect against the severe effects of COVID-19 infections caused by the new variants.
But the new variants are devastating for millions of Americans with weakened immune systems. New studies suggest that changes in those variants make them impervious to the latest lab-created antibodies available to help treat and prevent severe cases of COVID-19. And the EE. UU. se government has run out of cash to incentivize the creation of new ones.
It is unclear whether this gang of new variants will continue to run together, sharing a piece of the Covid-19 infection pie, or if one will rise up to outnumber the others, as has happened in past outbreaks.
Although they all descend from other branches of the Omicron circle circle tree, those new offshoots have evolved to share many of the same mutations, a phenomenon known as convergent evolution.
Some experts claim that this convergence means that we have entered a new phase in the evolution of the virus, one that will see the flow of several variants at the same time.
“We most likely have several cocirculating and semidominant lineages entering the winter season,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health.
“This is because with convergent evolution, several other lineages can independently reach similar degrees of transmissibility compared to a new single variant taking over.
“This is primarily what occurs with most pathogens, such as influenza and RSV,” Grubaugh wrote in an email. “Now that the virus has adapted well to human transmission, most of what circulates is physically fit. “
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical director of the COVID-19 response for the World Health Organization, said Wednesday that the wide variety of new variants is becoming more difficult for the WHO to assess as countries reverse their surveillance.
“So we have to be prepared for that. Countries need to be prepared to do surveillance, deal with the backlog of cases, and perhaps deal with backlogs and hospitalizations. We still don’t see changes in gravity. And our vaccines are still effective. “, however, we have to remain vigilant,” he said.
For now, Omicron’s BA. 5 subvariant still occupies the most sensitive place in the United States. According to CDC estimates, it caused about 68% of new infections in the U. S. BQ. 1 and BQ. 1. 1.
BQs caused only 6% of new infections in the U. S. UU. la last week; however, in recent weeks, the percentage of new COVID-19 infections caused by those viruses has doubled in both one and six to seven days, an immediate expansion rate opposite to BA. 5, which is already a closely matched virus,” says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
And those are two of the new Omicron descendants moving in.
“Projections vary a bit, but sometimes most people get the feeling, somewhere in mid-November, that they will end up being a very large proportion and have replaced BA. 5 as the dominant variant,” Fauci told CNN. .
These variants are others of BA. 4 and BA. 5, but they descend from these viruses, the result of genetic drift. They share many parts of their genome with this virus.
Its adjustments are on the scale of what happened when the original Omicron appeared on the scene in November 2021. This long-extinct strain of the virus has already exited the genetic field, leaving researchers and public fitness officials rushing to catch it up.
Fauci says this time we’re in a conceivable position for the latest batch of variants.
“It’s not that different from BA. 5 that I would absolutely escape the coverage you’d get from the vaccine,” if other people were simply vaccinated, Fauci said.
The bivalent booster vaccine, legal in September, protects against the original coronavirus strain such as the BA. 4 and BA. 5 subvariants.
“We have an updated bivalent BA. 5 vaccine as a reminder that we are pushing other people to do it. It’s compared to the still dominant variant, which is BA. 5, and it’s almost actually going to have a pretty clever degree of cross-protection. against BQ. 1. 1 and others, and yet the adoption of those vaccines, even though we’re already in mid-October, is disappointing,” he said.
According to the most recent CDC data, 14. 8 million more people gained an updated bivalent reminder six weeks after the promotion campaign. Less than 10% of the population is eligible to receive one.
Low absorption of new boosters, combined with immune evasion of new variants and decreased population immunity, is almost a prescription for higher cases and hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
“It’s going to be much bigger than the BA. 5 wave, at least that’s what I expected,” said Mark Zeller, an assigned scientist who monitors the variants at The Scripps Research Institute. But Zeller says no. expect this winter’s wave to succeed on the heights of January’s Omicron wave.
Hotez says other people don’t panic about this news but be careful.
“We underperform as a country with other people getting their bivalent reinforcements,” Hotez said.
The genetic modifications shared through those variants appear to help them evade the immunity created by vaccines and beyond infections, a recipe for reinfections and perforated infections, especially for others who haven’t received an updated booster.
Importantly, some of the variants also appear immune to the latest lab-created antibodies available to prevent serious COVID-19 infections: an antibody drug called bebtelovimab, made by Eli Lilly, and the combination of two long-acting antibodies. Evusheld, a photo taken through AstraZeneca that is helping to prevent other immunocompromised people from having health problems in the first place.
If those antibodies stop working against the virus, the U. S. will not work against the virus. U. S. residents will still have COVID-19 antiviral drugs such as Paxlovid, molnupiravir, and remedsivir for others at risk of serious complications.
But antibody treatments are especially for other people whose immune systems have been weakened due to medications, illness, or age. These are the same people whose bodies don’t respond strongly to vaccines.
Antibodies are also needed to help others who cannot take antiviral treatments because of possible reactions with other medications.
White House COVID-19 response coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said the administration pushed the development of new monoclonal antibodies during the pandemic by promising to buy new treatments after they are manufactured.
The administration can no longer do that, he said, because Congress has refused to approve more investments for the covid-19 response.
As a result, the progression of new antibodies and new treatments is lagging behind.
“So even if we were given cashArray, it would take us several months to put a monoclonal on the market, and we don’t have the cash anyway,” Jha told CNN.
Jha said this means the country faces fall and winter with a smaller arsenal against the virus, just when it wants to expand its options.
“There is no monoclonal consultation in a position to approve that we can simply buy on the market,” he said.
Antibodies are a wasteful proposition for corporations because it takes millions of dollars of investment to manufacture them and because the virus evolves so fast that they are only effective for a few months.
“It’s a horrible model,” Jha said.
Management has been considering tactics to market parts of the Covid-19 reaction, to opt out of buying vaccines and treatments, and ultimately pass prices on to consumers and insurers. But Jha says the procedure will need to be guided through “the wishes on the ground and the realities of the virus. “
He says existing realities require management to continue to inspire the production of new treatments, and hopes Biden’s leadership will again ask Congress to provide more investment to do so.
“And the fact is, if we need monoclonals to put other people at high risk, which we’re doing, then at this point, given the speed of viral evolution, the U. S. government is doing so. “The U. S. has to be a lead player in that role,” Jha said. . said. ” The market can’t do it alone. “
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