China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and builds the largest number of power plants in any country in the world, so decarbonization is a key detail to prevent harmful climate change. But wind, sun and garage prices have fallen so fast that the rough construction force is now less expensive than fossil construction fuels, far less expensive.
New studies show that falling blank energy costs mean That China can reliably exploit its networks with at least 62% non-fossil power generation until 2030, while reducing costs by 11% compared to a business-like approach. Once again, it’s less expensive to save the climate than to destroy it.
While the immediate fall in blank energy costs makes China’s transition of blank energy possible, only a smart policy can achieve a low-carbon electricity future. Fortunately, this transition of blank power would also stimulate long-term sustainable economic expansion while purifying the country’s air.
Short-term decisions, long-term impact
COVID-19 has caused a drop in global emissions: China fell by about 25% in the first quarter of 2020. But without decisive action for the country’s electricity system, the pandemic may be just a failure in China’s long-term upward emissions trend. . May’s knowledge showed an immediate uptick driven by the generation of coal and cement electricity, with emissions increasing from 4% to 5% year-on-year.
China’s potential economic recovery options today may worsen or worsen air and water quality. While the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently showed the country’s climate commitment, which promises to achieve maximum emissions and succeed in 20% of non-fossil power generation until 2030, its coronavirus recovery effort may depend heavily on polluting sources, and China approves more. coal is allowed in March 2020. than all last year.
All of China makes these decisions globally and potentially dangerous: emissions from the country’s electricity sector are comparable to emissions from the combined electricity sector in the United States and Europe.
Its coal capacity additions in 2019, for example, accounted for approximately two-thirds of all aggregate capacity globally. However, the country has also demonstrated an unprecedented ability to scale carbon-free production, the world leader in installed wind and sun capacity, as well as nuclear power.
China plans its economy from “fifteen-year plans” that advise progression and serve as the main measure of functionality for public officials. The plans set binding quantitative targets for everything from economics and infrastructure to fitness and social progression for the environment.
Chinese leaders are already preparing the fourteenth five-year plan for 2021-2025, and greater climate and a blank power ambition can drive decarbonization. For example, the country’s existing climate targets consistent with allowing emissions to accumulate until 2030 before decreasing, and to date, the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) targets have been expressed in carbon intensity consistent with the UNIT of GDP, which is to allow emissions to increase. with economic growth.
A more realistic picture of energy costs
Despite customers for precarious long-term emissions, China’s existing climate targets are within reach, with studies building scenarios to achieve the highest rates of renewable energy penetration in the coming decades.
But as the new article is published through researchers from Stony Brook University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, even those positive analyses fail to capture the amount of renewable energy and the garage have fallen in recent years. The weighted overall average electricity (LCOE) costs of large-scale solar panels, land wind power and the battery garage decreased by 77%, 35% and 85%, respectively, between 2010 and 2018.
And widely cited references such as World Energy Outlook from the U.S. government’s International Energy Outlook and Energy Agency have underestimated the progression of blank energy due to falling prices that make past analyses obsolete.
Given the mismatch between allocations and allocation economy in the genuine world, researchers have updated SWITCH-China, an optimization style originally developed at the University of California, Berkeley, to discover how other renewable energy load scenarios are implemented in the long term (SWITCH is an indistinct investment in solar, wind, traditional and hydraulic transmission resources).
He explores 4 situations: the prestige quo, which assumes that existing policies continue with moderate load discounts for renewable energy; cheap renewable energy, with immediate and continuous drops in renewable energy and garage rates; a carbon-restrictive situation, in which carbon is limited to 50% below the point of 2015 in 2030, in addition to the situation of cheap renewable energy; and a situation of maximum carbon restrictions limiting emissions from 2030 to 80% below 2015 points.
China’s Clean Energy Economic Opportunity
If the immediate decline in renewable energy costs continues and potential capital investment options move away from fossil fuels, as shown in the previous situation, China can obtain 62% of its electricity from non-fossil resources by the end of the decade.
In this scenario, electricity prices decreased by 11%, from $73.52 consistent with the megawatt hour (MWh) under the prestige quo to $65.08/MWh. Emissions from the electricity sector would be 22% less than in 2015 by 5% more. This trend reflects a widely reported model that appears to be able to achieve 90% of the target energy by 2035 while reducing wholesale electricity prices by 10%.
However, with a 50% carbon ceiling decline, China could halve emissions from the electricity sector in 2015, while publishing prices by 6% in the benchmark scenario.
Higher concentrations of wind and solar energy in the grid result in a significant build-up of garage capacity. To help 62% of non-fossil energy, research estimates that the garage’s capacity deserves to be increased eightfold from the existing trajectory, from 34 gigawatts (GW) to 290 GW. The style also allows existing herbal fuel production to fill the gaps to meet the maximum load, the need for herbal fuel capacity is almost halved in this scenario of cheap renewable energy.
Regional diversifications in demand and renewable energy capacity will also require adjustments to China’s transport infrastructure. Much of the country’s solar capacity is concentrated in the northwest, which becomes a net exporter of electricity to the central, north and east regions under the scenario of cheap renewable energy. Up to 35 GW of shipping capacity may be required to move solar and wind power generation to call centers such as Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze Delta and the Pearl River Delta, twice the current interprovincial shipping capacity.
China can have blank air and economic expansion thanks to reasonable blank energy
While the fall in the costs of wind, solar and garage power technologies make this blank energy transition imaginable for China, political action is needed for its low-carbon electricity future.
Given that the fourteenth five-year plan and other policies envisaged in the coming years will be China’s energy investment priorities and its track record of decarbonization, policy makers deserve to take advantage of existing and projected low renewable energy costs to set ambitious targets for the deployment of blank energy. These objectives deserve to be accompanied by decisions to reduce investment in fossil fuels and provide vocational education to assistance staff in making the transition to a blank energy economy.
China can also increase its five-year “peak” date, ensuring that official plans plan to reduce global emissions from 2025. The country can also simply set an absolute carbon limit with more powerful underlying targets for key economic sectors: electricity, industry, transportation, buildings and CO2-free emissions.
These goals would create the need for a new infrastructure that drives short-term economic recovery, blank energy additions, and long-term smart investments that deliver blank air at a lower cost.
Dirty air is incompatible with economic expansion and a filthy and rich fashion society; thanks to reasonable blank energy, China can have both.
We are a non-partisan meteorological policy expert group that provides high-quality studies and original studies to policy makers who make informed decisions about energy policies. Us
We are a non-partisan meteorological policy expert group that provides high-quality studies and original studies to policy makers who make informed decisions about energy policies. We are accelerating the transition of blank energy through policies and support methods that minimize greenhouse fuel emissions.
Silvio is Director of Communications at Energy Innovation, where he leads all media and communication efforts.