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Express (EXPR 2. 91%) Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call November 30, 2023, 9:00 AMm. , Eastern Time
Operator
I’m Krista and I’ll be your convention operator today. At this time, I’d like to welcome you to Express, Incorporated’s third quarter 2023 earnings conference call [technical difficulties]. All lines [technical difficulties] with no background noise.
After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] Thank you. I would now like to hand it over to Greg Johnson, vice president of investor relations. Please go ahead.
Greg Johnson – Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you. Hello and welcome to our call for the Q3 2023 earnings convention. Our third quarter 2023 earnings release will be available on our Investor Relations website and this call will be replayable. I’d like to start by reminding you of the provisions of the Corporate Safe Harbor.
Today’s call would likely involve forward-looking statements. All statements made at this convention, unless they involve old facts, are likely to be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual long-term effects could differ materially from those reported. in forward-looking statements due to a number of dangers and uncertainties. For a description of the perils that may also cause our effects to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to our 2022 Form 10-K and other SEC filings that are posted on our investor relations website.
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These dangers and insecurities are discussed in more detail in the results release. These statements constitute our current judgment. Express assumes no legal responsibility to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, as required by law. In addition, we may refer to certain measures that are not GAAP.
You can locate a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures discussed in our comments to amounts reported under GAAP in our earnings release. We will also be providing financial comparisons to prior periods, and our prepared remarks today refer to comparisons to the corresponding periods in 2022 unless otherwise noted. Please see the explanatory notes in the earnings release for additional details regarding the definition of certain terms. With me today are Stewart Glendinning, chief executive officer; and Mark Still, interim chief financial officer.
I will now turn the call over to Stewart.
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin by thanking the board and the entire Express organization for the opportunity to lead this company. I’ve been in the consumer products industry for much of my career, managing and growing global brands, as well as serving as the chief financial officer of multinational companies.
My background in working with consumer, operations, and finance is well suited to the demanding situations Express faces. After joining the company just under 3 months ago, I focused on how to regain the full profit potential of the company. This includes accelerating our loading of relief projects and launching new ones for the functionality and liquidity of our business. Today, I’m going to share with you the percentage of the effects of the third trimester and then talk about my initial mind on the road to recovery.
Our third-quarter sales and diluted loss consistent with constant percentage are below the lower end of our outlook ranges. The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, and the customer and competitive landscape has been highly promotional. Constant internal margin in the third quarter was negative 6. 3% compared to negative 6. 8% in the same quarter last year. This is due to our low revenue, which was more than compensated by robust charge-saving functionality in the SGs.
In brand Express, the top line was down 7%, driven by weaker results in our retail and outlet stores, partially offset by a 10% increase in online sales. In the Express brand, unit sales were consistent with our expectations. However, moving through this inventory required more extensive discounting and led to greater gross margin erosion. Keep in mind that our gross margin includes the royalty expense to WHP, which negatively impacted our gross margin by approximately 370 basis points as we did not have this expense in the same quarter in 2022.
While there is still work to be done to improve year-over-year sales results, several positive signs were seen during the quarter. Our business functionality improved sequentially since the second quarter. We achieved $30 million in fee savings, resulting in a 4% relief in general and administrative expenses. And we’ve seen a real improvement in sales among women thanks to the update of our vending strategy.
And while traffic was down than expected, our conversion rates were higher than last year. We are now innovating in our women’s business with a positive single-digit composition, anchored by strong online sales. Our men combine double-digit figures, which is in line with the second-quarter results, as we continue to break the 2022 performance record, namely in suits. To compensate for this decline, we are actively adjusting our collections architecture by seeking a greater balance between dresses for occasions, questions of value, and a focus on more casual tops and bottoms.
That said, we have a strong position in the market with a higher percentage of men’s specialty retail. UpWest increased sales by 15% compared to the same quarter last year, and Bonobos beat our expectations for the third quarter. The addition of Bonobos has allowed us to leverage our subsequent workplace and create greater leverage in supplier purchases. While Express has broad success and market penetration, Bonobos, with annual revenues exceeding $200 million, has a great opportunity to increase its household awareness and penetration to build on its existing scale.
The combination of in-store testing and online fulfillment has created strong visitor retention and repeat purchases, and we expect to continue to grow our revenue. That said, we want to reinvigorate the functionality of our Express logo and create a more powerful brand. foundation on which to develop the full potential of the company. Early last year, we faced a number of challenges, in addition to a decline in the conversion rate of our visitor files and in-store traffic, due to errors in our product strategy, especially among women, where we were unbalanced between categories, value titles, and shipping opportunities. This mismatch between our collections architectures and visitor demand has had a significant effect on our long-standing sales and margins.
We strongly believe that there is a path to overall business improvement. Four key intervention spaces are expected to bring the recovery to life and are already underway. Customer engagement, operational excellence, charge reduction and stock management. Let me go a little bit more about each.
Understanding consumers’ motivation to offer them the product they need and offering them a wonderful shopping experience are components of visitor engagement. We hope that our product collection will continue to be more attractive to visitors. Our marketing efforts will improve the taste and quality of our products and our affiliates will ensure that food shopping is positive, whether online and in our stores. Overall, we have an opportunity for our operational execution.
This includes cycle times, in-store execution, sourcing and logistics, all parts of our business, which allow us to serve customers lower our cost base and beat the competition. As part of this effort, we expect some rationalization of our store count as we close high-effort, unprofitable stores. On cost reduction, we’re making good progress and expect to meet the commitments we made. In 2023, we identified and implemented a $120 million in annualized expense savings.
We learned $30 million in the third quarter and will get a total of $80 million for the full year 2023. The remaining $40 million will be learned in the first part of 2024. We are committed to achieving more than $200 million in savings through 2025. adding $120 million in annualized savings in 2024. This also includes $50 million in gross margin expansion opportunities by leveraging sourcing, production, and supply chain efficiencies.
It’s a smart start and I think we can do even more. Finally, we drive adjustments to ensure a decrease in stock and higher turnover rates. This will not only reduce our debt, but also our operational efficiency, as backrooms and warehouses will increase. not be hindered by excess products. We expect significant relief in stocks in 2024.
Now, these areas are just the beginning of our efforts to return Express to profitability. In the longer term, we expect to advance our partnership with WHP Global, and the opportunity here is twofold. First, earlier this month, WHP announced the signing of long-term licensing deals to bring the Express brand to Indonesia and Paraguay, grow our presence in Mexico, and expand our retail footprint in Central America with the opening of four new Express retail flagship stores through 2026. Royalties from these ventures, as well as noncore domestic licensing, will now flow into the partnership, and Express will receive its 40% share in net of costs.
The second component of this strategic partnership is continued acquisitions. Our first acquisition was Bonobos, which we completed in the second quarter. And since then, Bonobos sales have exceeded our guidance and are on track to generate positive cash for the full year. We plan to leverage this agreement to make additional acquisitions in the coming years.
Now, let me introduce you to Mark Still. Mark has been with the company for about 20 years and has just taken over as interim CFO. He will provide more details on our third-quarter effects and our outlook for the fourth quarter. and full year. Mark?
Mark Still – Interim Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Stewart, and good morning. I’ll start with our third-quarter results. We expected consolidated net sales at a diversity of $460 million to $490 million, adding approximately $50 million in sales for Bonobos. Consolidated net sales were $454 million, adding $52 million from Bonobos.
Across the Express and UpWest brands combined, comparable sales declined 6%, a significant improvement over the 14% decline in the second quarter. Online sales increased up to 10%, driven by an improvement in our women’s business and strong increases in conversions. Retail outlets were down 16% and retail outlets were down 13%. Declining traffic and men’s business records have contributed to the current demanding situations on those waterways.
We expect gross margin to be reduced through approximately two hundred foundation issuances. We saw a reduction of 370 foundation issuances due to increased promotions and margin erosion than initially anticipated. We expect to leverage around 275 foundation issuances in our SG expenditures.
We expected a consistent diluted loss with a percentage of $5. 50 to $7. 50. Diluted loss consistent with a percentage of $9. 83. Let’s move on to the balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, we had $35 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Total loans were $278 million, of which $213 million was used on our asset-based line of credit and the remaining $65 million was used on our term loan. $22 million remains under the asset-based credit facility. Inventories increased 14% compared to last year, in line with our expectations and thanks to the acquisition of Bonobos. With respect to the $52 million CARES receivable we discussed above, we are now seeking this reimbursement in two other installments to expedite payment.
The first tranche is $43 million, which has already been agreed upon. And the current amount is $9 million, which is still under review. We expect to obtain $48 million, which includes the $43 million in money similar to the CARES Act claim, and $5 million Relief in our source of income tax payable for 2022. It should be noted that we will continue the rest of our efforts. Claim before the IRS.
For amounts to be paid, the path forward includes approval from the IRS and the Joint Congressional Committee on Taxation. We are actively working with the IRS to move this claim forward given the importance of this claim to our liquidity. Before we talk about our outlook for 2023, I need to briefly comment on our functionality at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Our October trends continued through the first part of November, while in the second part of November, sales advanced and were more in line with last year.
With this in mind, as we look ahead to our 2023 forecast, our fourth quarter and full year forecast has been updated and has taken into account continued customer uncertainty and macroeconomic environments, as opposed to our quarterly functionality. to date, the impact of the $80 in spending cuts we will achieve, as well as the expected functionality of Bonobos. As a reminder, the entire year 2023 will come with a 53 week and the fourth quarter of 2023 will consist of 14 weeks. Week 53 is estimated to generate approximately $25 million in net sales in the fourth quarter. Our outlook for the fourth quarter, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, is as follows: net sales of approximately $565 million to $590 million, adding week 14 and approximately $60 million of Bonobos net sales and a negative operating margin of half digit.
Our full-year outlook to complete 2022 is as follows: net sales of approximately $1. 84 billion to $1. 865 billion, adding week 53 and approximately $150 million of Bonobos net sales, diluted loss consistent with a consistent percentage of $46 to $50, and capital expenditures of approximately $25 million. And now, let me call Stewart.
Stewart Glendinning — Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Mark, and thanks for attending the call today. Our team here at Express believes in the full potential of our business, recognizes the current challenges, and is actively engaged in driving the changes that will restore liquidity and move the business back to profitability. I’ll now turn the call over to the operator, and we’ll take your questions.
Operator
Thank you. [Operator instructions] We also ask that you limit yourself to two questions and a follow-up. Your first question comes from the line of Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.
Dana Telsey — Telsey Advisory Group — Analyst
Good morning, everyone. And welcome, Stewart, and hello, Mark. Stewart, if you’ve been there now —
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Dana.
Dana Telsey – Telsey Advisory Group – Analyst
Hi. As you’ve been there now just around two months and you mentioned the men’s and the women’s business, what do you see to that — where are you in the steps to getting the women’s business back on track? How are you thinking about the men’s business? What’s the process, and what’s the prognosis for the timeline? And, Mark, when you think about the store base and the online channels of distribution, how do you think about the expense structures of each? What does a opportune store base look like to you? And as we go through this holiday season, how do you think of promotions versus full price, and where are you on the merchandise margin journey? Thank you.
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
It is ok. Well, Dana, thank you. That’s a clever set of questions. Let me go back to sales strategy, because I think it’s an area where we’re in a pretty smart situation.
And the reason for that is that we’ve got a new leader of this space, Michael Rengel, who is top notch. He’s already shifted the merchandise strategy, and you saw it kick in in this quarter. I mean, women had a — have historically, in the last couple of years, had a pretty rough time. We saw positive comp in women this quarter.
It’s terrifying. Our knitted blouses generated an expansion of more than 20%. Knitted sweaters and blouses were on the rise. Funding increased.
I mean, our worst category in women was tailoring, and that came in at a minus one. So, I mean, I think broadly, women are in good shape. Men are in a different place. They are a lot weaker, and the primary reason there is that last year was such a strong year in suits.
And it’s a difficult festival for men to tackle. But even on the men’s side, I mean, when you look at the sweaters, Michael’s team has introduced a new series of sweaters and blouses. It’s a hugely successful category. In spaces where we’ve become more informal, we’re seeing solid performance, and that’s what we’ll see in the coming quarters.
Mark Still – Interim Chief Financial Officer
And, Dana, coming from a — sticking with the merchandise as we think about the fourth quarter and our promotional stance versus full ticket, you know, I would say we continue to be in a highly promotional environment, especially here in holiday. What I would say is that we are continuing to see great adoption of our go-forward product. And we will continue to focus on that go-forward product. But in the midst of holiday coming out of Black Friday and moving into the Christmas period, we do expect to continue to see a very highly promotional environment.
But as we move into next year and as we’ve mentioned the go-forward cost savings that we are expecting to see as we move into 2024 and 2025, we will expect to see benefit over time. And then getting to your — the second part of your — yeah, second part of your question as it relates to stores versus e-com. You know, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we had a plus-10 comp from an e-commerce standpoint, saw great growth, great conversion growth especially within e-com. And as we also mentioned in the remarks, you know, we’re going to continue to look at our store affiliate.
We’ll keep comparing it and if we have outlets that require a lot of effort and aren’t profitable, we’ll finalize those locations.
Dana Telsey — Telsey Advisory Group — Analyst
They gave it to me. And then, Stewart, when you think about the competitive landscape of Express and obviously when you’re thinking about joining the company where you were looking to grow the business, how do you imagine what Express is going to look like over the next year?What do you think are the next steps to revitalize and see Express grow into a developing company?Thank you.
Stewart Glendinning — Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Well, great question. I’m going to reiterate some of the points that I made in the prepared remarks. But first of all in coming to the company, I saw a really strong brand.
Express has been around for a long time. It has an unwavering visitor base. And I think the kind of faux pas here, from what I’ve read in the story, is that we had deviated a little bit from where our consumers were shopping and we were serving a set of products that weren’t aligned with the general visitor. What we’ve noticed most recently are two changes.
First, we’ll be going back to more core Express products that were sold over time. And secondly, we’re moving a little bit more towards the point where the customer is general, which is more informal. I think coming out of COVID, that more casual clothing has persisted, and our collection will reflect that. But I think that’s a component of the adventure that I feel very confident in because we have a good team forged there.
In the rest of the business, as I looked at the business, I saw a broad set of opportunity. And that has only been confirmed in the first couple of months here. There’s an absolute opportunity here to engage more aggressively with customers through branding and through messaging to customers and, in fact, in the way in which we serve them both online and in stores in their purchase experience. Coming from a deep operations background as well, as I look across the business and consider the ability for us to shorten cycle times for us to get better at operating the business just in terms of moving product around, getting our stores in fighting shape, I look across the business, there are a ton of opportunities.
And see them in the coming quarters. We’ve talked a lot about load easing and I think the team is already doing a wonderful job in that area. The only thing I’m doing, frankly, is trying to dig into this and speed it up, but come on. to get to two hundred million, I’m sure. And finally, I think if you take a look at the inventory, you’ll see that we’re not doing enough business.
That inventory needs to move through more quickly. The benefit of that, frankly, is we’ll have a lower interest bill, and inside of our own operations, you’ll see less cluttered back rooms and stores. You’ll see warehouses that aren’t jammed up. And, frankly, that will leave us in a place where we’re just a much healthier business.
Dana Telsey – Telsey Advisory Group – Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Eric Beder from SCC Research. Please go ahead.
Eric Beder – CSC Research – Analyst
Hello.
Stewart Glendinning — Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Eric.
Mark Still – Interim Chief Financial Officer
Hi Eric.
Eric Beder – SCC Research – Analyst
I want to talk a little bit more about inventories. If you take out Bonobos, what was the inventory impact on the — what was the inventory without Bonobos? And when should we start expecting to see the inventory, I guess, with or without Bonobos start to come down?
Mark Still — Interim Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Eric, I can answer. I’ll start with the first component of this question. Excluding Bonobos, our stock has remained strong compared to last year. So the Bonobos added about $58 million in stock. Clearly this was not in our stock last year.
When it comes to the second part of your question as it relates to starting to see that come down, we are intensely focused on improving our working capital and improving our inventory position. So, it is a focus of ours to make a meaningful reduction in our overall inventory levels as we move to the end of this year and through 2024.
Stewart Glendinning – President and CEO
yes, I mean, sure, Eric. You start to see this in the first part of 24.
Eric Beder — SCC Research — Analyst
OK. Question for you. I guess the second question is WHP and the agreement there, I know you mentioned some international expansion opportunities. When do you think those will start to impact? I guess, the other question is, you know, you had a great acquisition of Bonobos.
Do you have the financial — if you can believe you have the financial flexibility to do other acquisitions here in kind of the same structure?
Stewart Glendinning – President and CEO
Let me just — let me start at the most important part first. Our primary focus here is driving the EXPR back to profitability. That’s job one, job two, and job three. The WHP partnership is something that will benefit us absolutely over the longer term, both because of the royalty sharing that we spoke of in our prepared remarks.
It doesn’t distract us in any way. These are operations separate from our operations. They will be authorized and supervised through the WHP association, and we will obtain the benefits as the owner. So overall it is just favorable for us without any ordinary effort on our part.
On the second part, as it relates to acquisitions, you know, we’re going to take that over time. Bonobos was a great opportunity for us. We’re super happy that that brand, which is a powerful brand with a long runway ahead of it, is part of our organization. But right now, job one, two, and three is focusing on getting EXPR back to health.
Eric Beder – CSC Research – Analyst
What do you look at — when you look at the — what do you think of the potential longer term for Express in terms of its ability to — what do you think the longer-term opportunities are in terms of margins, in terms of the ability to size other pieces for Express? I know you’ve only been there two months, so I’m not expecting you — but what do you think about that?
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
Eric, I think that’s a wonderful question. Frankly, of course, when you make a replacement as big as this, you’re thinking conscientiously about the odds for the business. I’ll take you back to 2018. I mean, 2018 was a healthy year, it was not just any year for the company.
And if I had to set a benchmark for, you know, a position to get back to that, that’s what I would fall back on. And you can go back and take a look at that monetary data. But you lived on roughly 30% gross margins and a positive net income. I think for me that’s the starting point, but it’s a company that has all the mandatory building elements.
And I think if you give me the opportunity to sort of get through this next quarter, coming back in at the end of the year, we’ll give you a good set of expectations for 2024 and give you a little bit more detail on what we think the glide path looks like to recovering the full potential in the business.
Eric Beder — SCC Research — Analyst
IT IS OK. Good for the rest of the holiday season.
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
I do that. Thank you, Eric.
Mark Still — Interim Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Eric.
Operator
[Operator instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro from Retail Tracker. Please go ahead.
Marni Shapiro – Retail Follower – Analyst
Hi, everybody. Welcome, Stewart and Mark. Nice to meet you. I’d like to just dig in a little bit more to the merchandising changes.
It feels like we’re swinging the pendulum back a little bit, towards ExpressArray, you know, Portofino t-shirts, key items. If you could dig a little deeper into that. And is. . . Excuse me. Can you see it? I’m in the department store all weekend.
I’m there all the time. I’ve seen some changes in the store. Is this what I’m seeing, and how much more is to come? And could you also just talk a little bit about what’s going on to the outlets? It seems like that customer is definitely the more price sensitive, but other brands have talked about how the outlets have been a bright spot because the consumer is more price sensitive.
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. OK. Well, let me take the second half first, and then I’m going to give you the benefit of getting a little bit of explanation directly from our chief merchandising officer because I think he’s going to give you a little more granularity. But look, on outlets, I would say that outlets weren’t a particularly bright spot for us.
They are a bright spot just in terms of of being part of the profitability of our business. So, if you look at the margin structure, outlets are a very good part of our business. But if you look at this past quarter, for us, the winner was e-com, and we were up 10% in business in e-com. The performance was strong there, and that’s where we won women back.
So, I would say that’s what our third quarter was like. But realistically, in the future, one and both components of our business will play a role. You know, POS will continue to play a vital role in strategy as e- I think commerce is getting bigger and stronger. Of course, nothing is going to stop this, but details will continue to play a role in the business.
Michael, do you want to talk about the merch strategy?
Michael Rengel – Director of Marketing
Yes of course. Thanks, Stewart. Yes, Marni, I would say ultimately it’s a matter of balance, returning to certain icons, like Portofino, Gramercy, surely is part of the good fortune we’ve started to see in the women’s championship. game. But that’s only part of the problem.
You know, you have to keep your balance as you go. So, as Stewart said in his comments, it’s a little more informal, but it’s still being tweaked. We balance costs by ensuring smart design. in [Inaudible]. But an important component of that is getting some consumers back to our icons and franchises, like Portofino, Gramercy.
Denim had a good quarter, and that depended on the return to slimming down and the relaunch of FlexX. So, I would say it’s about the balance within everything. It’s not about going back to the good old days of Portofino [Inaudible]. But Portofino has a strong visitor base and we need to make sure we satisfy them.
It’s all about having a balance between applicable seasonal fashion.
Marni Shapiro – Retail Follower – Analyst
And then could you tell us a little bit about the marketing aspect?I know it’s a lot of direct marketing, but what do you think? The Express logo, you know, a lot of love for the logo from other people who love the logo. What would happen if you attracted new consumers to the logo?
Stewart Glendinning – President & Chief Executive Officer
I mean, I think the suitability of each and every logo depends on the end of the renewal. And you’re probably right. We have a very unwavering visitor base that we are looking to retain.
In this last quarter. What is remarkable is that little by little we have been advancing in our visitor base. The record number of visitors had been under some pressure. And that’s why I’m pleased to see that we’re going in the right direction.
I think there’s still a lot of work to do there. I also think you’ll see: start to see that change in the sales strategy. We are going to attract a different group of consumers to our retail and online outlets than we have. in the afterlife because of the offer. And finally, one of my main goals is to take a close look at where we are spending on marketing and the effects that spending is generating.
I think in order to spend money on marketing, you have to be sure that you perceive what kind of return it generates, what kind of consumers it brings you. And I think all of those things combined will start to attract that new visitor to our store.
Marni Shapiro — Retail Tracker — Analyst
Great, good luck for the rest of the holiday season.
Stewart Glendinning – President and CEO
I do that. Thank you Marni.
Operator
We have no more questions queued at this time. I now turn it over to Stewart Glendinning for his final comments.
Stewart Glendinning — Chief Executive Officer
Great thank you very much. Well, I need to thank you all for coming to our call today. We have a company and an organization of other people working hard during the holiday season to make it a success.
And we’re all looking forward to sharing our Christmas effects with you on our next call. Thank you so much.
Operator
[Operator Approval]
Duration: 0 minutes
Greg Johnson – Vice President of Investor Relations
Stewart Glendinning — Chief Executive Officer
Mark Still – Interim Chief Financial Officer
Dana Telsey – Telsey Advisory Group – Analyst
Eric Beder – CSC Research – Analyst
Marni Shapiro – Retail Follower – Analyst
Michael Rengel — Chief Merchandising Officer
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