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Ukrainian forces launching an offensive in the south have targeted Kherson, a provincial capital under Russian control since the early days of the invasion.
The possible fall of the city would inflict another humiliation on Moscow after a series of battlefield defeats and other setbacks, further cornering Russian President Vladimir Putin and paving the way for a possible escalation of the nearly eight-month war.
A look at Kherson’s army and its political importance:
WHY IS THE CITY SUCH A PRICE?
Kherson, which before the war had a population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. The city and its landscape fell into Moscow’s hands in the early days of the standoff when Russian troops attacked northern Crimea — the region illegally annexed through the Kremlin in 2014.
Its loss was a severe blow to Ukraine due to its location on the Dnieper River near the mouth of the Black Sea and its role as a major trading center. Since then, Ukrainian resistance fighters have defied Russian troops to seize the city, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of Moscow-appointed officials.
Kherson is also at a point where Ukraine can cut off new water from the Dnieper to Crimea. Kiev blocked those important materials after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and Putin cited the need to repair them as one of the reasons for his decision to invade.
Over the summer, Ukrainian troops introduced relentless attacks to retake parts of the province, also known as Kherson and one of the 4 regions that Russia illegally annexed after sham referendums last month. Ukraine has used US-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers to attack a key bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson and a giant dam upstream also used as a crossing point. The moves forced Russia to rely on pontoons and ferries, also aimed through Ukraine.
This disrupts the source links with Kherson and the Russian task force on the western bank of the Dnieper and surrounds them. The shortages were exacerbated after a truck bomb on Oct. 8 blew up a component of the Kerch strategic bridge connecting the Russian mainland to Crimea. which served as a center of origin for Russian forces in the south.
WHAT WAS RUSSIA’S RESPONSE?
Putin blamed the attack on the Kerch Bridge on Ukrainian army intelligence and responded by ordering a bombing of electrical infrastructure across Ukraine.
He also declared martial law in Kherson and the 3 annexed regions in an effort to cement control of Moscow.
But while Ukrainian forces stubbornly advanced in their southwestward offensive along the Dnieper, Russian troops struggled to halt their advance.
General Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s new commander in Ukraine, gave the impression of setting the level for a possible withdrawal of Kherson, acknowledging that the scenario in the region was “quite difficult” for Moscow and noting that the fighting scenario was still evolving.
Russian officials, who had first rejected talks on evacuating the city, reversed course this week, warning that Kherson could face heavy Ukrainian bombardment and encouraging citizens to leave, but only to Russian-controlled areas. Officials said 15,000 of the expected 60,000 had been displaced by Thursday. Officials from the regional directorate appointed by Moscow also withdrew, along with other officials.
Moscow warned that Ukraine could simply try to attack the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant’s dam about 50 kilometers (30 miles) upstream and flood giant areas, adding the town of Kherson. Ukraine denies this and, in turn, accused Russia of making plans. Blow it up to cause catastrophic flooding before it retreats.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleged that the dam had already been mined through Russia and suggested world leaders clarify to the Kremlin that blowing it up “would mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction. “
WHAT WILL KHERSON’S LOSS MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
A withdrawal of Kherson and other spaces on the western bank of the Dnieper would shatter Russian hopes of pushing an offensive west of Mykolaiv and Odessa to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea. Such a move would deal a devastating blow to its economy. It would also allow Moscow to build territory in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region, which is home to a main Russian army base.
“Kherson’s loss will diminish until all the Kremlin’s southern dreams are dusted off,” Ukrainian army analyst Oleh Zhdanov said. “Kherson is key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key origin routes for Russian forces. The Russians will try to stay out of it by all means. “
For Ukraine, Kherson’s capture would set the level for recovering the component of the Zaporizhzhia region that remains through Russia and other southern regions and, in the end, retreating toward Crimea.
“Ukraine has to wait for Kherson to fall into its hands like a ripe apple, because the origin scenario of the Russian task force continues to worsen day by day,” Zhdanov said.
Ukraine hopes to temporarily double the number of U. S. -supplied HIMARS rocket launchers that can hit targets 80 kilometers (50 miles) away with lethal accuracy, he said.
Kherson’s recovery would also mean Kyiv could cut off Crimea’s water again.
“After the vacancy of Kherson, the Russians will again have fresh water in Crimea,” Zhdanov added.
He said Putin could up the ante if he faces the loss of Kherson.
“The Russians would be willing to wipe Kherson off the face of the Earth rather than give him to Ukraine,” Zhdanov said.
Destroying the dam to cause major flooding in the most commonly flat domain would be one way for Moscow to do it.
“The Russians must show that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will face a harsh reaction from the Kremlin that has declared that the region is part of Russia, and it is frightening to even think about what that reaction might be,” Zhdanov added.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based independent think tank Penta Center, noted that capturing the entire Kherson region and other southern regions would be worthwhile for Russia and that its loss would have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad.
“If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face a new wave of fierce grievances against the army command and the government in general from ultra-patriotic circles,” Fesenko said, adding that the fall of the city would further demoralise the armed forces and in all likelihood fuel opposition to the mobilization effort.
He said China and India, which are closely following Russia’s action in Ukraine, will see Kherson’s downfall as a sign of the Kremlin’s weakness.
“Putin will face reputational losses only at home, but also in the eyes of China, and this may be detrimental to the Kremlin,” Fesenko said.
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Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed.
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Follow AP of the war in Ukraine in https://apnews. com/hub/russia-ukraine
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