By Angela Dewan, CNN
A study of Pakistan’s devastating floods found “fingerprints” of the man-made climate crisis in the disaster, which killed more than 1,400 people and destroyed so much land and infrastructure that plunged the South Asian country into crisis.
The analysis, published Thursday by the World Weather Attriyetion initiative, could not quantify precisely to what extent climate replacement contributed to the floods, which were caused by several months of heavy rainfall in the region, but some of its models found that the crisis is likely to have a higher rainfall intensity by up to 50 percent. in particular, seeing a five-day downpour that hit Sindh and Balochistan provinces hard.
The research also found that the floods were likely a 1-in-100-year event, meaning there is a 1% chance of a similar rain year.
If global warming rises 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, as is about to happen, it is very likely that brief bursts of rain like those observed during the five-day era will be even more intense. The Earth is already around 1. 2 degrees warmer than before industrialization.
The magnitude of the floods and WWA’s research highlight the enormous economic need to cope with the effects of the climate crisis.
“The kind of assistance that’s coming in right now is negligible,” Ayesha Siddiqi, a geographer at the University of Cambridge, told reporters at a news conference. “Several Western economies have argued that they are suffering their own crises, due to the war in Ukraine and other problems. “
She described the UK’s initial £1. 5 million ($1. 7 million) as “laughable”.
The UK, however, has increased its commitment by £15 million ($17 million) more recently. The geographical domain that is now part of Pakistan from the former British colony of India until 1947, when the British divided the territory into two separate domains.
Fully evolved nations have a greater ancient contribution to climate renewal than the world ahead.
Siddiqi said the budget that went into Pakistan was negligible for aid sent after the fatal floods that hit the country in 2010.
“The big world news [in 2010] was about ‘We have to help Pakistan or the Islamists will win,'” he said, explaining that there was a concern in the West at the time that Islamist teams would benefit from the floods. more to recruit more members. ” And this time, of course, we don’t have the same geopolitical imperative to help Pakistan, so the aid has been negligible. “
Pakistan is responsible for around 0. 6% of global greenhouse fuel emissions, although it accounts for only about 2. 7% of the world’s population, according to the European Union’s global emissions database. China is the world’s largest emitter, at 32. 5%, and although the United States ranks second, at 12. 6%, it is traditionally the world’s largest emitter.
More than 33 million people in Pakistan were affected by the floods, more than the population of Australia or the state of Texas. The floods destroyed 1. 7 million homes, washed away dozens of bridges and turned green farmland into dust fields.
The UN estimates that the recovery may charge around $30 billion, about the same price as the country’s annual exports.
There were limits to what scientists can discover about the role of the climate crisis in flooding, as the affected domain has great natural variability in rainfall patterns during monsoon seasons. It is also a La Niña year, which regularly brings heavier and longer rains to Pakistan.
The role of climate updating in heat waves, which also affected Pakistan and other parts of the northern hemisphere this year, is much larger and clearer to determine in South Asia, scientists said. A WWA study published in May found that pre-monsoon heat waves in Pakistan and India became 30 times more likely due to climate change.
“Every year, the threat of a record heat wave is greater than last year,” said Friederike Otto, co-founder of WWA and meteorological scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
The next heat wave in Pakistan will likely have “some pretty devastating consequences,” he said. “Because while everything possible is now being done to invest in reducing vulnerability, it takes time. “
She said that while scientists can’t pinpoint how much climate change contributed to the floods, it’s most likely closer to “doubling” its probability, as opposed to the 30 they discovered with the region’s heatwave.
The question of who pays for the effects of the climate crisis, known as “loss and damage,” has long been a sticking point between emerging and some developed countries, and will be at the center of long-term COP27 foreign climate negotiations in Egypt. Formation
“I think it’s completely justified to say, ‘We need, finally, a genuine commitment to deal with the loss and pain of climate change,'” Otto said.
“Much of what leads to a crisis is similar to existing vulnerabilities and not to man-made climate change. But of course, the global North also plays a very important role in this regard, as many of those vulnerabilities are due to colonialism and so on. “on. So there’s a. . . A very great duty for the global North to, in spite of everything, do something genuine and not just talk.
El-CNN-Wire™
ABC 17 News is committed to providing a forum for civil and constructive conversation.
Please keep your comments respectful and relevant. You can view our Community Guidelines by clicking here
If you would like to share a story idea, please submit it here.
Terms of Use| Privacy Policy| | KMIZ-TV FCC | Community Guidelines FCC public registry | Applications
Don’t sell my information