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(Bloomberg’s Opinion) – In the age of authoritarian populists, at least one strong leader is more vulnerable than in decades.
Yes, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will claim a crushing victory after Sunday’s vote. After all, the country has not had elections identified as lazy and fair through Western observers since 1995. However, a squeaky $63 billion economy, a poorly managed pandemic, geopolitical isolation, and galvanized crowds through the wife of a imprisoned opponent may represent his sixth term. . it’s harder.
Denounced more than ten years ago as Europe’s last dictator across the United States at the time. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Lukashenko has performed virtuosity for more than 26 years, pitting neighbor russia opposite the European Union and exploiting her country’s geographical position as a buffer for both. The former head of the collective farm enjoyed enviable stability and even promoted relative prosperity, largely thanks to reasonable Russian oil and strong repression. Now, however, she goes to the polls with her biggest disadvantage compared to her rivals, thanks to the opposition, which has been revitalized through Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a part-time instructor whose plan is basically to lose again. Elections.
Part of the challenge has been a long time. The Belarusian economy, ruled by strong state-owned enterprises, is stagnant. The much-needed cheap Russian crude is less reliable.
The government’s failed management of the Covid-19 epidemic has made matters worse. Lukashenko called the disease “psychosis” and advised irrational remedies, adding vodka, tractor rides, ice hockey and more. Ordinary Belarusians had to fend for themselves. The official figures are, at best conservative, however, the number of cases lately amounts to more than 68,000 infections, not far from neighboring Ukraine, with 4 times the population. Last month, the general included Lukashenko himself.
It is difficult to download reliable opinion polls in Belarus, but it also reveals that the weakening of Lukashenko’s approval rate is the enthusiasm with which citizens have supported a new generation of opposition candidates. Viktor Babariko, a former banker, has collected some 435,000 signatures. He was arrested in June and charged with monetary offences, denied committing irregularities. Others have been just as lucky: Valery Tsepkalo, a former ambassador to the United States who helped discover the country’s generation center, was banned from running and is now abroad. Sergei Tikhanovsky, a video blogger who campaigned with supporters waving slippers under the anti-corruption slogan “Stop the Cockroach,” was arrested in May.
However, an unforeseen call that can make a difference has not been blocked. Running in her imprisoned husband’s position, Sergei, and with the help of other candidates, Tikhanovskaya does not have a transparent platform, not even a coherent movement behind her. However, his crusade of unity has attracted a wide variety of attendees, from lifelong opposition attendees waving white, red and white flags in his cross-country video to city dwellers and rural voters. Powered through social media, it constantly draws stunning crowds across the country. It’s hard to believe how this enthusiasm will be mastered.
Assuming the vote is delayed, an official declaration of victory through Lukashenko is a no-brainer. However, what happens next is more important.
Alex Kokcharov of IHS Markit issues two possible final results: protests that want to be quickly suppressed, or a long-term Armenian-style nonviolent resistance that ends up leading to divisions within the elite and a transition to a less stringent regime. or even a loose system. It’s a horny scenario. It is also a final result that neighbouring Russia is unlikely to admit: there is nothing specifically anti-Russian in opposition, notes Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British ambassador to Belarus now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, but a democratic Belarus. would be an unwanted example. Russian President Vladimir Putin is only six years younger than Lukashenko and lately faces his own protests in the Far East.
Given Minsk’s history of repression and a crusade that has already included a murky episode with Russian mercenaries, an offensive against post-election protests would not be a shock. A replica of Ukraine’s mass protests, which overthrew the president of this Moscow-backed country, is unlikely, but it is difficult to see the power of Tikhanovskaya’s demonstrations contained smoothly after an inevitable defeat.
However, the use of force will increasingly charge Lukashenko. This would mean new sanctions and exile in the diplomatic desert, higher borrowing prices and a weaker negotiating position with Moscow, which is already campaigning for an ever closer union that is unpleasant to many, even in pro-Russian Belarus.
For one of the oldest post-Soviet leaders, this is possibly worth a hard time.
This column necessarily reflects the perspectives of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Clara Ferreira Marques is Bloomberg’s opinion columnist covering raw fabrics and environmental, social and governance issues. Previously, she was deputy editor of Reuters Breakingviews and editor and correspondent for Reuters in Singapore, India, the United Kingdom, Italy and Russia.
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