It’s a sign that things are desperate when European airlines, pilots’ unions and airports agree.
Jonathan Hinkles, ceo of British regional airline Loganair, says that without airports, British aviation “spins like a leaf in an otoñal storm. “
EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren said “aviation continues to face the greatest serious risk in its history. “
Virgin Atlantic CEO Shai Weiss warns that “without massive testing” the UK’s economic recovery will “take off”.
Brian Strutton, secretary of the British Airline Pilots Association, believes that “British aviation is in a fatal spiral. “
Augustin de Romanet, CEO of ADP Group, owner of Paris’ two major airports, fears that “the whole airline is slowly dying. “
After reaching a peak of recovery in August 2020, Europe has now seen 8 weeks of deepening capacity cuts year on year. The number of seats fell -62. 2% in the week of October 12, 2020. Only the Middle East has a deeper cut, with -63. 2%; Africa is -59. 1%, Latin America -56. 7%, North America -51. 6% and Asia-Pacific is -39. 0%.
The European aviation industry urgently wants standardized and consistent COVID-19 tests to update the Internet of quarantine restrictions that stifle it.
The total number of seats in Europe is expected to be 12. 7 million in the week of 12 October 2020, according to OAG schedules combined with seat configurations in the CAPA fleet database.
This is 2. 2% per week and 62. 2% less than the 33. 6 million seats in the same week a year ago.
This week’s total is divided by 4. 9 million national seats, up from 7. 8 million last year; 7. 7 million foreign seats, to 25. 9 million.
National seats in Europe have dropped by 35. 8% year-on-year, up from -35. 4% last week. It is the eighth consecutive descent, but it is still the sixteenth consecutive week with an indoor capacity of more than 50% of that of 2019.
International seats dropped by 70. 0%, up from -69. 2% of the week.
National and international capacity fell week after week for the seventh consecutive week. The number of domestic seats decreased by 1. 0% and capacity by 2. 9% on weekdays.
Annual relief of 62. 2% in the total number of seats this week is the thirtieth week of giant double-digit descents (more than 50%) seats.
It is 0. 7 points wider than last week’s 60. 1% drop, extending the series of discounts expanding from year to year to 8 weeks after 12 weeks of reduction.
After many weeks with the third narrowest annual handover in the number of seats, Europe fell to fifth place in all six regions last week and is holding that position this week.
The Middle East has the largest domestic cut, with a year-on-year reduction of 63. 2%, the number of seats in Africa has dropped by 59. 1%, Latin America by 56. 7%, North America by 51. 6% and Asia Pacific by 39. 0%.
Asia-Pacific has had 14 consecutive weeks at more than 50% of capacity in 2019 (and the region is still above this threshold).
While the Asia-Pacific region’s capacity recovery remains the ultimate, its year-over-year relief has expanded this week. The Middle East and Europe also declined.
Africa, North America and Latin America reduced their discounts year after year this week.
For the 3Q2020, the peak quarter of the year, the number of European seats derived from the schedules submitted to the OAG was a 61% decrease in the same quarter of 2019, or 39% of last year’s level.
July-2020 drops by 68%. This fell to 55% in August 2020, but fell to 59% in September 2020.
The number of seats scheduled for October 2020 is 3% less than last week and is now expected to fall by 61% year-on-year (compared to the predicted -60% last week), worse than in September 2020.
There have been other cuts in the first component of the winter program this week, however, capacity is still projected to be above 50% of last year’s degrees, obviously unrealistic given existing trends.
Capacity from OAG’s November 2020 schedules has decreased by 7% compared to last week, but is expected to be 56% of 2019. La capacity levels by December 2020 has fallen by 1% since last week, but is expected to succeed at 65% of levels. Levels 2019.
Capacity for the first two months of 2021 has been reduced by 2% since last week, still expected to be 72% of last year’s number of seats in January 2021 and 74% in February 2021.
The schedule-cutting procedure for this winter still has a lot to do.
Air France said at the end of September 2020 that it planned to operate at 50% of its scheduled schedule for November 2020 and December 2020, and its sister company KLM has indicated a target of 60% for this period.
But Air France-KLM is more sensitive to capacity diversity (as a percentage of capacity in 2019) compared to its main competitors.
Some of Europe’s leading airline teams forecast seating capacity in 4Q2020 by a percentage decrease than in 2019 to 39% in the market in 3020.
EasyJet has operated 38% of its planned capacity for the 3Q2020, with facilities peaking in August 2020 and particularly reduced in September 2020; however, it now plans to run at 25% of the planned capacity for the 4Q2020.
Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr said he would be “happy if we can succeed at 20%” of the 2019 capacity grades in the winter of 2020/2021 (Reuters, October 6, 2020).
As CAPA’s research reports have pointed out, the number of passengers is declining faster than airline seating capacity.
ACI Europe’s knowledge implies that the number of passengers at European airports was minimized by 72% year-on-year in the week beginning September 27, 2020, compared with a 60% minimisation in the number of seats according to OAG/CAPA’s knowledge for it. Week.
As with capacity, year-over-year expansion in passenger numbers has deteriorated since mid-August 2020.
Even the first two European ultra-LCC, which led the recoil of capacity after the almost total closure of aviation in April/May/June-2020 and whose passenger expansion rates are ahead of the market, are undergoing a reversal of momentum. .
The annual decrease in Ryanair’s passenger numbers fell to -69% in July 2020, then to -51% in August 2020, falling to -62% in September 2020.
For Wizz Air, the number of passengers was 53% in July 2020 and 41% in August 2020, but 59% in September 2020.
The reversal of Europe’s air capacity recovery since August 2020 is the result of an increase in the number of COVID-19 instances across the continent, from 134,000 consistent with the week in early July 2020 to 694,000 in the week of 5 October. -2020 (source: WHO) and an unpredictable, fragmented and incoenent quarantine regimen.
The aviation industry across Europe (as elsewhere) is calling for, and with an expanding volume, a COVID-19 verification regime to update quarantine requirements, which act as a significant restriction on the application for air travel.
ICAO, IATA, ACI and many airlines have called for government cooperation to remove quarantine restrictions and restart air travel, and adopt a systematic technique for COVID-19 testing.
It also requires an accepted and identified technique worldwide to test passengers.
The World Economic Forum, together with the Commons Project Foundation, has begun a travel-verified COVID-19 status test, known as CommonPass, with the goal of standardizing laboratory effects certification strategies and vaccination records, allowing governments to outline and determine their own fitness criteria for travelers.
Travelers the COVID-19 before departure, download the result to their phone and demonstrate compliance with access needs at departure and destination airports.
Cathay Pacific and United Airlines are testing the formula in October 2020, with volunteers determined on flights between London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore, through government authorities. United will start testing London Heathrow-New York Newark, while Cathay Pacific will get you started with Hong Kong-Singapore.
Other routes and airlines will be added.
The peak summer months have not met the expected recovery of air calls in Europe, a blow, given the same importance of this era for the profitability of the continent’s airlines.
The winter season is more difficult, with a bright spot that arrives regularly during the Christmas holidays.
However, as Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair Group, said, “effective testing and tracking” allows consumers to make e-books with confidence by Christmas 2020, “otherwise it would also be a cancellation. “
A transparent and consistent COVID-19 verification formula for European aviation is a prerequisite for customer confidence in air transport to be able to recover.
It’s a sign that things are desperate when European airlines, pilots’ unions and airports agree.
Jonathan Hinkles, ceo of British regional airline Loganair, says that without airports, British aviation “spins like a leaf in an otoñal storm. “
EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren says “aviation continues to face the greatest serious risk in its history. “
Virgin Atlantic CEO Shai Weiss warns that “without massive evidence,” the UK’s economic recovery will “take off. “
Brian Strutton, secretary of the British Airline Pilots Association, believes that “British aviation is in a deadly spiral. “
Augustin de Romanet, president and CEO of the ADP Group, owner of the two main airports in Paris, fears that “the entire airline is slowly dying. “
After achieving maximum recovery in August 2020, Europe now takes 8 weeks to deepen capacity discounts from year to year. The number of seats has dropped by -62. 2% in the week beginning October 12, 2020. -63. 2%; Africa is -59. 1%, Latin America -56. 7%, North America -51. 6% and Asia-Pacific is -39. 0%.
The European aviation industry urgently wants standardized and consistent COVID-19 tests to update the network of quarantine restrictions that stifles it.
The total capacity of European seats is expected to be 12. 7 million per week of 12 October 2020, according to OAG schedules combined with seat configurations in the CAPA fleet database.
This is 2. 2% per week and 62. 2% less than the 33. 6 million seats in the same week a year ago.
This week’s total is divided by 4. 9 million national seats, up from 7. 8 million last year; 7. 7 million foreign seats, to 25. 9 million.
National seats in Europe have dropped by 35. 8% year-on-year, up from -35. 4% last week. It is the eighth consecutive descent, but it is still the sixteenth consecutive week with an indoor capacity of more than 50% of that of 2019.
International seats dropped by 70. 0%, up from -69. 2% of the week.
National and international capacity fell week after week for the seventh consecutive week. The number of domestic seats decreased by 1. 0% and capacity by 2. 9% on weekdays.
Annual relief of 62. 2% in the total number of seats this week is the thirtieth week of giant double-digit descents (more than 50%) seats.
It is 0. 7 points wider than last week’s 60. 1% drop, extending the series of discounts expanding from year to year to 8 weeks after 12 weeks of reduction.
Europe: year-over-year replacement in airline seating capacity, 1 h
Source: CAPA – Aviation Center, OAG.
After many weeks with the third narrowest annual relay in the number of seats, Europe fell to fifth place in the six regions last week and holds that position this week.
The Middle East has the largest domestic cut, with a year-on-year reduction of 63. 2%. The number of seats in Africa is down 59. 1%, Latin America 56. 7%, North America 51. 6% and Asia Pacific 39. 0%.
Asia-Pacific has had 14 consecutive weeks at more than 50% of capacity in 2019 (and the region is still above this threshold).
Percentage of replacement in passenger seat capacity throughout the region, week from October 12, 2020 to October 14, 2019
Source: CAPA – Aviation Center, OAG.
While the Asia-Pacific region’s capacity recovery remains well advanced, its year-over-year relief was expanded this week. The Middle East and Europe also withdrew.
Africa, North America and Latin America have cut their cuts year after year this week.
Percentage replacing year after year in passenger seats throughout the region, from the week of March 30, 2020 to the week of October 12, 2020
Source: CAPA – Aviation Center, OAG.
For the 3Q2020, the peak quarter of the year, the number of European seats derived from the schedules submitted to the OAG was a 61% decrease in the same quarter of 2019, or 39% of last year’s level.
July-2020 drops by 68%. This recovered to a 55% decrease in August 2020, but fell to 59% in September 2020.
The number of seats scheduled for October 2020 is 3% less than last week and is now expected to fall by 61% year-on-year (compared to the predicted -60% last week), worse than in September 2020.
There have been other cuts to the first component of the winter program this week, however capacity is still projected to be above 50% of last year’s grades, obviously unrealistic given existing trends.
Capacity from OAG’s November 2020 schedules has decreased by 7% compared to last week, but is expected to be 56% of 2019. La capacity levels by December 2020 has fallen by 1% since last week, but is expected to succeed at 65% Levels 2019.
Capacity for the first two months of 2021 has been reduced by 2% since last week, still expected to be 72% of last year’s number of seats in January 2021 and 74% in February 2021.
Europe: replace as a percentage of airline seating capacity as of the week of 2019, with customers on other dates
Note: Dotted lines involve long-term knowledge as expected on the implicit download date. Source: CAPA – Aviation Center, OAG.
The schedule-cutting procedure for this winter still has a long way to go.
Air France said at the end of September 2020 that it planned to operate at 50% of its scheduled schedule for November 2020 and December 2020, and its sister company KLM has indicated a target of 60% for this period.
But Air France-KLM is more sensitive to capacity diversity (as a percentage of capacity in 2019) compared to its main competitors.
Some of Europe’s leading airline teams forecast seating capacity in 4Q2020 by a percentage decrease than in 2019 to 39% in the market in 3020.
EasyJet has operated 38% of its planned capacity for the 3Q2020, with facilities peaking in August 2020 and particularly reduced in September 2020; however, it now plans to run at 25% of the planned capacity for the 4Q2020.
Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr said he would be “happy if we can succeed at 20%” of the 2019 capacity grades in the winter of 2020/2021 (Reuters, October 6, 2020).
As CAPA’s research reports have pointed out, the number of passengers is shrinking faster than airline seating capacity.
ACI Europe’s knowledge implies that the number of passengers at European airports was minimized by 72% year-on-year in the week beginning September 27, 2020, compared with a 60% minimisation in the number of seats according to OAG/CAPA’s knowledge for it. Week.
As with capacity, year-over-year expansion in passenger numbers has deteriorated since mid-August 2020.
Europe: year-over-year replacement in weekly airline seating capacity and passenger numbers
Please note that the knowledge of the seats is in the weeks that begin a day after the passenger’s knowledge. Source: CAPA – Aviation Center, OAG, ACI Europe.
Even Europe’s first two ultra-LCC, which led the recoil of capacity after the near-total closure of aviation in April/May/June 2020 and whose passenger expansion rates are ahead of the market, are undergoing a turn.
Ryanair’s annual decrease in passenger numbers fell to -69% in July 2020, then to -51% in August 2020, it fell to -62% in September 2020.
For Wizz Air, the number of passengers was 53% in July 2020 and 41% in August 2020, but 59% in September 2020.
The reversal of Europe’s air capacity recovery since August 2020 is the result of an increase in the number of COVID-19 instances across the continent, from 134,000 consistent with the week in early July 2020 to 694,000 in the week of 5 October. -2020 (source: WHO) and an unpredictable, fragmented and incoenent quarantine regimen.
The aviation industry across Europe (as elsewhere) is calling for, and with an expanding volume, a COVID-19 verification regime to update quarantine requirements, which act as a significant restriction on the application for air travel.
ICAO, IATA, ACI and many airlines have called for government cooperation to remove quarantine restrictions and restart air travel, and adopt a systematic technique for COVID-19 testing.
It also requires an accepted and identified technique worldwide to test passengers.
The World Economic Forum, together with the Commons Project Foundation, has begun a travel-verified COVID-19 status test, known as CommonPass, which aims to standardize laboratory effects certification strategies and vaccination records, allowing governments to outline and determine their own fitness criteria for travelers.
Travelers the COVID-19 before departure, download the result to their phone and demonstrate compliance with access needs at departure and destination airports.
Cathay Pacific and United Airlines are testing the formula in October 2020, with volunteers determined on flights between London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore, with government authorities. United will start testing London Heathrow-New York Newark, while Cathay Pacific will start with Hong Kong-Singapore.
Other routes and airlines will be added.
The peak summer months have not met the expected recovery of air calls in Europe, a blow, given the same importance of this era for the profitability of the continent’s airlines.
The winter season is more difficult, with a bright spot that arrives regularly during the Christmas holidays.
However, as Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair Group, said, “effective testing and tracking” allows consumers to make e-books with confidence by Christmas 2020, “otherwise it would also be a cancellation. “
A transparent and consistent COVID-19 verification formula for European aviation is a prerequisite for customer confidence in air transport to be able to recover.