When European governments began to end severe coronavirus blockades in May and June, officials were pressured to continue only take action as long as the new number of infections remained low.
But the daily number of cases in several Western European countries has begun to increase again. On Thursday, France and Germany recorded their highest daily number of new cases in 3 months, and infections are spreading in Spain and the Netherlands as well, among others.
Public fitness experts who examine knowledge now warn that Europe may be on the brink of a momentary wave of COVID-19, unless governments keep their promises to sharpen regulations when infections begin to rise.
Many European governments are now implementing a new strategy to engage the virus: imposing restrictions located in the express spaces where epidemics occur, in order to return to the large-scale national blockades that devastated their economies in the spring.
But while others have resumed socialization with their friends after spending complicated months away inside, experts are also concerned about social estrangement fatigue, making it difficult to convince others to adhere to new restrictions and making new epidemics potentially more dangerous.
“Every time you release the blockade and other people start interacting more, they start seeing new instances again,” says Nathalie MacDermott, professor of infectious diseases at King’s College London. “The question is whether you can monitor them and avoid an increase in strength.”
While the new daily instances continue to decline several times compared to the peak in Europe in March and April, one thing we know about COVID-19 is that it can extend exponentially if it becomes uncontrollable. Now all eyes are on Europe to see if you can prevent this from happening.
In recent weeks, there have been forts in Spain, Iceland, Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg, and slower in France, Germany and Italy.
Spain, which reported more than 16,000 cases last week, is one of the highest affected today, with about 2,800 per week in early July. About two-thirds of the bodies shown in the week ending August 4 were concentrated in the northern regions of Catalonia and Aragon, with Madrid also severely affected.
Belgium also experienced a peak, with cases shown across the country that doubled in the seven days prior to August 1.
The virus is also spreading rapidly in the Balkans, which have usually avoided being hit hard by the first wave of the pandemic, but now have one of the highest populations on the continent in terms of the population of the capita.
There is never an explanation why an epidemic, and the points contributing vary from position to position, however, experts say that most Western European countries have at least one thing in common: governments have anxiously reopened their economies before the virus shrinks to sufficiently low levels. degrees in the country. Population.
Even though the peak of European countries relaxed their blockades in June, EU transmission continued to fall to the maximum everywhere, according to a US threat assessment published in early July. This meant that the virus was still so widespread that it was highly unlikely that maximum government would systematically be the source of all infections. However, with daily instances cut in many places, governments have chosen to lift some restrictions.
It’s a miscalculation in the eyes of some experts. “Many countries that are opening up lately are facing a resurgence of cases, especially those that opened up before reducing infection rates to very low levels,” says Professor Martin McKee, a European public fitness specialist. at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
One of the main differences is that if the number of cases starts to increase, new daily deaths remain very low. Deaths in the first wave of the pandemic have been delayed by several weeks with respect to the instances, as the virus may take time to kill, however, epidemiologists say that today, the maximum number of new cases in Europe appears to be among other young people, who are less likely to die of the virus, unlike the first wave in which many older people became infected.
While the low mortality rate might seem like good news, it is highly likely that an increase in the number of young people will lead to disorders across the board. Experts say that other young people who are inflamed with the virus will inevitably spread it to other segments of the population, expanding the number of cases and in all likelihood the mortality rate when it reaches other more vulnerable people. “It’s hard to involve the virus only in the youngest component of the population,” says virologist Steven van Gucht, adviser and spokesman for the Belgian government. “It will have consequences.”
Spain is a smart example of how tourism can be partly guilty of an increase in coronavirus cases. It was one of the countries most affected in the first wave in Europe, however, as of June, the number of cases had fallen to 400 despite all day, below 8,000 per day in early April. In response, it began to lift its three-month national blockade, opening bars, cafes, nightclubs and hotels.
The reopening resolution welcomed the companies suffering, namely Spain’s tourism industry, which accounts for about 14% of the country’s GDP. At the end of June, Spain reopened its borders to European tourists without forcing them to quarantine upon arrival, and gradually the beaches and hotels began to fill up. But by early July, cases had begun to escalane again. In the two weeks leading up to August 5, Marbella, a popular tourist destination on Spain’s Costa del Sol, recorded 157 new cases of COVID, after an 11-day era in July in which no cases were recorded.
“Perhaps the motivation to inspire the tourism industry would probably have prevented Spain from seeking to involve the virus,” says MacDermott of King’s College London. “The number of other people who need to be on vacation will actually increase the threat of increased strength, because there is more likely to be a mix of other populations.”
The opening of nightclubs and bars is wonderful. Virus outbreaks in France, Switzerland and Spain have been attributed to the reopening of night clubs, despite new social estrangement regulations.
The new social estrangement regulations in clubs are smart in theory, but “every time you introduce alcohol or other ingredients that adjust the judgment of a situation, it’s clear that other people who stick to social estrangement regulations simply won’t happen.” says MacDermott. After a wave of club-related epidemics in Spain, a government spokesman “behaved in nightlife locations,” especially among young people.
Another thing in several outbreaks has been poor labor practices. Seasonal agricultural workers, who move from one stall to another, forced to stay in narrow homes that hinder social distance, have also been known as a major vector of the new Spanish epidemic. Similarly, in the UK, an increase in the number of cases in the city of Leicester was linked to unscrupulous clothing stuff employing others in violation of social estrangement protocols, who then took the virus house into overcrowded homes, allowing it to spread. Faster.
Across Europe, governments are moving away from the brutal tool of national closures in favour of smaller-scale measures targeting local areas.
“What we will have to avoid above all is a general blockade,” French Prime Minister Jean Castex told Nice-Matin newspaper last July. “This measure breaks the spread of the epidemic, of course, but it is catastrophic economically and socially, increasing the mental fitness of some of our fellow citizens.”
Experts agree that localised restrictions, if imposed correctly, are the way to combat the sudden increases in Europe. “It’s the most productive approach,” says MacDermott. “It’s about not giving in to the virus.”
In many parts of Europe, it is already being implemented. In the British city of Leicester, officials responded to the outbreak by imposing a city-wide blockade, a style of government officials who said it would be monitored elsewhere if necessary. And on Wednesday, the Scottish government announced that it would force department stores and restaurants to close in Aberdeen, and restrict people’s reaction to a growing number of cases.
In Catalonia, the epicenter of the Spanish epidemic, the local government has suggested that another four million people in and around Barcelona remain inside, but without imposing any other legally binding blockades. “It is very vital to respect these measures now, this is the most productive form of a lockdown,” said Alba Verges, Catalan Health Counsellor, pronouncing the request. “No one needs to be confined to the house.”
In addition to urging governments not to reopen their economies too temporarily before infections are controlled, epidemiologists say that a clear lesson from Europe is that countries with maximum productivity testing and tracking systems tend to be the most effective at maintaining the number. low virus.
Italy, one of the countries most affected by the first wave of pandemics in Europe, has recently maintained its daily rate consistent with the rate of capita cases in one of the lowest grades on the continent. “Italy has strengthened its surveillance systems and it turns out it’s managing to keep things under control,” McKee says.
And the new daily instances are slowly expanding in Germany, experts are confident that the complicated tracking formula will keep a check on the virus. “Germany is very proactive, and I think that will probably prevent a momentary wave,” says MacDermott.
Similarly, just as the foreigner has played a key role in the transmission of the Wuhan virus in China, where it was first detected, around the world, experts say that as countries date back to a very small number of cases, arrivals from abroad will want to be closely monitored. in a new meaning. In Europe, this has been complicated by the Schengen zone, which allows for borders in much of continental Europe, which makes it more difficult for national officials to know precisely who is in their country and where they come from.
In May, USA Officials have published a set of rules in the hope of making contact search programs interoperable in all countries, so that, for example, a user in France who has come into contact with a Spanish guest is notified if the Spaniard tests positive for COVID-19 when they return home. But the formula has not yet been fully tested, and observers fear that the gaps could lead the virus to take hold.
The good news is that the strategy of re-mimicking specific social estrangement restrictions seems to be working. In Belgium, daily instances began to go back after the imposition of new rules. “It is really vital that we involve the virus in its early stages, in a different way we will have precisely the same challenge as the first time,” says Belgian government adviser van Gucht. “This sudden and very competitive takeoff.
“The great danger is that other people will get tired of the crown [virus],” he adds. “It’s quite understandable because I feel the same way. The challenge is that we can about the virus, but the virus won’t.”