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As a researcher in foreign relations and conflict resolution, I have observed that African countries are courted through foreign powers, in part because of maritime industry routes. Africa’s maritime industry routes are of strategic and economic importance to major powers such as China and the United States. They supply shipping and foreign industry, as well as essential resources. They are also critical to maintaining geopolitical influence, as evidenced by military outposts such as the U. S. base in Djibouti and Russian attempts to identify a naval presence in the Red Region. Sea.
Abiy’s new diplomatic alliances were demonstrated on Oct. 18, 2023, his stopover in China for a forum on the Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure task that has allowed China to increase its influence in the Global South. During the meeting, Abiy was seen marching in step with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Photographs from the convention appear to demonstrate Abiy’s alignment with those leaders and revive Washington’s long-standing considerations about weakening ties with Ethiopia.
These considerations have been in place since the outbreak of the Tigray war in Ethiopia at the end of 2020. The standoff resulted in President Joe Biden’s Executive Order 14046, which imposes sanctions on certain Ethiopian U. S. governments for documented human rights abuses, as well as economic and weapons damage. embargoes, isolating Ethiopia from its classic Western allies.
In response, Ethiopia turned to China and Iran, buying drones that ultimately tipped the scales in the Tigray conflict. Since then, the Ethiopian government’s rhetoric has increasingly focused on the East, away from the West.
The move culminated in the union of Ethiopia, along with five other states, and the addition of Iran to the BRICS group, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, a move that gives Ethiopia more opportunities to circumvent long-term U. S. sanctions.
In addition to mimicking Russia and China, the timing and risk of Abiy’s maritime motivations deserve scrutiny, given the ongoing internal conflicts in Ethiopia.
I think one reason for the maritime claim is that Abiy seeks to galvanize the population of Africa’s second most populous country by creating a harsh nationalist discourse. This is due to the failure of his “Medemer” campaign, which tried, unsuccessfully, to create a single unifying ideology behind which Ethiopians could unite. Medemer, meaning “unity,” was coined by Abiy when he took power in 2018 in hopes of uniting and galvanizing an Ethiopia that has been ethnically divided for the past 30 years.
In addition to the risk of insurgency, Ethiopia is plagued by political violence, famine and poverty, as well as worsening religious tensions, problems from which Abiy would possibly have to divert attention.
Abiy’s ambitious rhetoric can backfire in a number of ways, both locally and internationally.
Given the intensified regional alert following Abiy’s comments, his technique can easily lead to an escalation of tensions, or even an armed confrontation with neighboring countries. Eritrea is reportedly on high alert as Ethiopian troops gather between its border and Eritrea.
Abiy’s attempt to divert attention from internal discord may inadvertently generate new crises for Ethiopia’s already strained military economy and economic recovery, and thus jeopardize Ethiopia’s already strained economic and security capabilities.
Moreover, Abiy’s attempts to emulate global forces such as China and Russia and impose his will through force come with their own risks. China and Russia have the military strength to further their geopolitical ambitions, a luxury that Ethiopia does.
And China is unlikely to give Ethiopia the same amount of aid it gave Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Unlike Russia, Beijing doesn’t count on Ethiopia to access the raw tissues it needs. Similarly, Russia is not expected to provide weapons to Ethiopia. as it seeks to fill its own arsenal with North Korea to continue its fight in Ukraine.
Therefore, attempting to adopt a similar assertive maritime posture in a region already plagued by tensions may prove disastrous for Ethiopia, plunging the country and its neighbors into prolonged turmoil.
This article is republished through The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization that brings you data and research to make sense of our complex world.
Written by: Mahad Darar, Colorado State University.
Learn more:
Putin and Xi: Belt and Road Meeting in Beijing Highlights Russia’s Role as China’s Junior Partner
Landlocked Ethiopia Needs More Access to the Sea: A Port Deal with Its Neighbors Could Benefit the Region
Mahad Darar works, consults, owns shares in, or obtains investments in any company or organization that may benefit from this article, and has disclosed any applicable affiliations beyond his educational appointment.