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By Noah Browning
LONDON (Reuters) – Declining Russian fossil fuel exports after the invasion of Ukraine this year will mark the global energy landscape for decades and possibly help boost the transition to green energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
The IEA’s annual Global Energy Outlook acknowledges the economic blow of the reduction of Russian oil, herbal fuel and coal, but maintains a larger environmental situation in which no investment in new fossil fuel projects is required.
The IEA report says the global energy crisis is prompting deep and lasting adjustments that can drive the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system.
“Energy markets and policies have been replaced as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, just for now, but for decades to come,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
“The world of power is dramatically becoming before our eyes. The responses of governments around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and safer energy system,” Birol added.
The short-term gaps created by Russia’s reduction of fossil fuel materials will want to be filled elsewhere.
The most powerful applicants are “short lead time” projects that temporarily bring petroleum and fuel materials to market and block dependency.
Global investment in blank energy is expected to succeed at more than $2 trillion through 2030, an accumulation of part of existing levels, while “international energy markets undergo profound change in the 2020s as countries adjust to Russia-Europe (energy) divide. flow,” the IEA said.
Last year, the IEA surprised the energy industry by saying falling demand and emerging low-emission fuels were creating new oil and fuel deposits beyond 2021 in their climate-friendly net-zero emissions scenario.
PEAKS
On Russia, the IEA said the country, which is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, will never recover the percentage of global energy mix it had before the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s globally traded energy source will fall to 13% by 2030 from around 20% in 2021, according to IEA plans.
The IEA also said the global call for the fossil fuel type is set at a peak or plateau for the first time in the agency’s model history.
Global fossil fuel emissions driving climate renewal will peak through 2025, as coal use declines in the coming years, demand for herbal fuels stabilizes through 2030, and oil demand stabilizes in the next decade before falling.
“One of the effects of Russia’s moves is that the era of immediate expansion of demand for herbal fuel is coming to an end,” the IEA said, noting global fuel demand growth of less than five percent between last year and 2030.
(Reporting via Noah Browning. Editing via Jane Merriman)