The average value of Euronext rapeseed futures reached EUR 418. 31/t (£358/t) in February, down 2. 6% month-on-month and 23. 9% year-on-year. Market participants note different market policies among rapeseed oil buyers, with some secured until the third quarter of 2024, while others continue to acquire as needed.
Buyers without long-term contracts compete for limited volumes with major players. This incentivized distributors to keep their costs steady, leading to an increase in customer offerings.
In February, Mintec observed a stagnation in domestic rapeseed sales among European farmers, attributed to unattractive costs from past seasons. Farmers are now exploring markets with higher yields. Low costs in the physical and futures markets have also reduced rapeseed imports to the EU.
A drop in sales may recommend a tighter offer, which can lead to shredders paying higher prices. However, considerations about foreign demand, coupled with festivals from major manufacturers such as Canada and Australia, are raising doubts about March.
There was a decrease in Mintec’s Reference Costs (MBP) for EU sunflower oil in February, reflecting sluggish market activity. MBP sunflower oil averaged €850. 64/mt (£728. 07/mt), down 1. 8% MoM and 22. 0% YoY. in the year.
Mintec observed moderate demand for sunflower oil in February, especially in the EU, where the market remained dormant. This trend is expected to continue until March due to the extension of the physical policy until June/July 2024.
The value of Ukrainian sunflower increased in February due to the revival of demand, especially from China. The value of Ukrainian sunflower oil stood at 30,753. 8 UAH/tonne, a month-on-month increase of 2. 7% in February and a year-on-year decrease of 22. 5%. -year.
In March, the market for sunflower seeds and oil will closely follow the ongoing farmers’ protests in the EU, which may have an effect on prices. The protests challenge industry regulations and emerging prices due to the Ukraine conflict, causing uncertainty over Ukrainian grain and oilseed products.
The value of CBOT soybean oil futures in February 2024 averaged $1,006. 18/tonne (£789. 85/tonne), down 850. 643. 6% MoM and 24. 9% YoY. The value of soybean oil futures fell for the seventh time in a row. month, due to a drop in demand. Expectations of abundant supply from March 2024 of the South American crop also contributed to the fall in values.
In its February report, the USDA forecasts that U. S. soybean oil production will be expected to rise. The U. S. economy will increase 3. 0% year-over-year, up 6. 8% from the five-year average. Internal intake for the 2023/24 financial season is expected to increase by as much as 0. 5%. % year-on-year for food use.
Brazilian soybean oil production is expected to reach 10. 4 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, up 1. 2% from last season.
The MBP of EU palm oil averaged EUR 877. 23/t (£750. 83/t) in February 2024, a month-on-month increase of 1. 0% and a year-on-year decline of 5. 3%.
EU palm oil MBP rose in February, reaching its highest point since September 2023, due to production considerations in Indonesia and Malaysia (major producers) and higher demand for the month as players tried to fill open positions.
Market resources said palm oil export materials could remain tight this year due to increased demand for palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia.