(Bloomberg) — Economists gave top marks to a dark horse candidate in Indonesia’s presidential race, favoring former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan to oversee Southeast Asia’s largest economy, according to a Bloomberg survey.
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Baswedan, a prominent critic of President Joko Widodo, scored the highest score of 33 among 17 economists and market position analysts when asked who they considered would be the most productive user to lead Indonesia. Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto came in second with 29, while former Central Java Governor A Ganjar Pranowo was given 28.
Indonesia is less than a month away from its presidential election, in which more than 204 million eligible voters will have a leader overseeing an economy of more than $1 trillion. Most likely, the election season will be a long one: if none of the 3 candidates gets at least a share of the votes, a second circular will be held in June.
The economy is expected to grow by more than 5%, according to the survey. The president, better known as Jokowi, has failed to meet his 7% target as he completes his second and final five-year term.
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The Bloomberg poll, conducted in early January, comes as Baswedan is gaining ground in Indonesia’s main opinion polls, which have the former Prabowo in the lead.
Prabowo nominated Jokowi’s son as his vice-presidential candidate for his third-highest office, prompting accusations of dynasty-building. The two men pledged to continue Jokowi’s policies, mining and the structure of a new capital of $34 billion.
Prabowo is confident in Indonesia’s appetite for course that has helped the country’s assets outperform their emerging market peers. Rupee bonds have supported a 5. 5% annualized return for dollar investors since Jokowi was elected president in July 2014, well above the debt of neighboring Philippines and Malaysia, and the annual yield of 0. 5% for a wide variety of emerging countries. local currency sovereign debt market, according to information compiled through Bloomberg.
During Jokowi’s first term, Baswedan became education minister, but two years later he fell in a cabinet reshuffle. He then turned his attention to Jakarta’s 2017 gubernatorial race and won, thanks to a divisive crusade that took advantage of Muslim backlash against a Chinese-Christian incumbent who was also Jokowi’s best friend.
As a component of his campaign, Baswedan pledged to tax the wealthy and create millions of jobs in the green economy. He has also been one of Jokowi’s most prominent critics of the president’s plans to build a new $34 billion capital on the island of Borneo, saying policies should not be based on private aspirations. He also criticized Jokowi’s management for not acting temporarily to engage Covid-19 and questioned knowledge of the case at the height of the pandemic.
Dynastic politics
Indonesians are preoccupied with dynastic politics, something that has not been unusual in the country since independence. Prabowo represents this thread of history not only through his running mate, but also as the former son-in-law of former dictator Suharto.
Ten of 17 respondents in the Bloomberg poll said a political dynasty under Jokowi bodes well for markets and the economy.
While Jokowi came to power a decade ago as an outsider on a campaign promoting him as the man of the people, his sons are now actively involved in politics and a son-in-law is mayor of Medan — one of Indonesia’s largest cities.
Allegations of nepotism surfaced last year after a constitutional court, presided over by the judicial leader who is Jokowi’s brother-in-law, lowered the age of eligibility for the positions of president and vice president. This paved the way for Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming. Raka, 36, will run for vice president.
Jokowi denied seeking to create a political dynasty and said it is the Indonesian electorate that decides who wins.
There is no guarantee that Jokowi’s policies will continue under Prabowo’s presidency, according to Ian Wilson, a senior lecturer and senior fellow at Murdoch University’s Centre for Indo-Pacific Research. He is not involved in the investigation.
“Once Jokowi is removed from office, his political influence will diminish dramatically,” Wilson said. “He doesn’t have significant monetary resources to exert influence, nor does he have a hard political vehicle. “
Here are the effects of the survey:
—With those of Grace Sihombing, Claire Jiao, and Matthew Burgess.
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