Earth is heading into “uncharted climate territory” and is on track to become uninhabitable for between 3 billion and 6 billion people by the end of the century, according to a new report.
The study, led by scientists at Oregon State University, issues dire warnings and says big changes are now coming.
The State of the Climate report, produced by weather scientists from around the world, summarizes a wealth of evidence indicating that global efforts to reduce greenhouse fuel emissions are well below the mark. The group, led by a professor and former researcher at Oregon State University, said only comprehensive measures to protect people and the environment would give humanity “our best chance for those long-term challenges. “
The report raises hopes that humanity can cut emissions fast enough to bring about a general collapse, even as scientists say Earth is already experiencing climate chaos and is finally in uncharted territory.
Twelve scientists reported Tuesday in the peer-reviewed journal BioScience, which is a publication of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. Professor William Ripple of Oregon State and former postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf are the lead authors.
“Life on planet Earth is under siege,” the report reads. “For several decades, scientists have consistently warned about a long period of excessive time due to rising global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities releasing destructive greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up.
The report summarizes forty-five studies and analyses aimed at examining the state of Earth’s “vital signs,” such as global temperatures, forest cover, and sea ice, in the context of the climate and biodiversity crisis. The authors discovered a planet in crisis dangerously close to several “tipping points” that could upend entire societies.
The odds of a “collapse of global society are feasible and dangerously underexplored,” the scientists write.
Earth broke “extraordinary” records in 2023, the report says. This summer was the era on record. In July, Earth recorded the highest daily average surface temperature ever measured, which may simply be the day on the planet in the last 100,000 years. Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent ever measured, while Canada endured a wildfire season that released more than a billion tons of carbon, more than all of the country’s emissions in 2021, according to the report.
Meanwhile, external climate action is woefully inadequate, according to the report. The authors conclude that the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of restricting global temperature to 1. 5 degrees Celsius is likely to fail. This echoes the United Nations’ own assessment last year. Let’s say Earth crossed that line this year.
The report calls for a transformative effort around the world to “increase 0. 1 (degrees Celsius) more in long-term global warming. “
The report comes a month before the scheduled assembly of world leaders and experts in the United Arab Emirates for COP 28, the UN’s annual meteorological conference.
“We want hope and action,” Ripple told the Capital Chronicle.
Ripple, a professor at Oregon State’s College of Forestry, and Wolf, now a scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in Corvallis, have been sounding the alarm for years about the crisis and biodiversity. In 2019, the two men declared an emergency to the Alliance of Global Scientists. To date, more than 15,000 scientists from 163 countries have registered.
Scientists from Germany, China, Brazil, Bangladesh, Australia and other countries contributed to this year’s State of the Climate report.
The report points to some recent developments. Global renewable energy use increased by 17% between 2021 and 2022, while the global rate of deforestation decreased by 10%. Deforestation is likely to continue to slow, thanks in part to new climate-friendly protections for Brazil’s critical Amazon rainforest. carbon sponge, the report says. Last year, the United Nations created a new “loss and damage” fund for disaster-stricken countries in the Global South that are most vulnerable to climate change.
However, scientists said progress is “minimal. “
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse fuels soared in 2021 and 2022 after a brief decline during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the environment is currently approaching 420 servings per million, far exceeding what scientists calculate. safe limit of 350 servings per million, which was exceeded in the 1980s. Coal consumption hit a record high last year, and some countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have invested record amounts in fossil fuel subsidies in reaction to the Russia-Ukraine war. war, which has disrupted the world’s supply of oil and fuel.
This year, scientists from around the world described an era of unprecedented climate chaos. Along with a record loss of sea ice, the temperature of the world’s oceans has reached an all-time high, while ocean acidity has reached an all-time high. high.
A July study by Danish scientists suggested that the inverted South Atlantic circulation, known as the Gulf Stream, could give way faster than expected this century. The sinking of the current would be a disastrous tipping point that could profoundly alter global weather patterns. .
This year, severe flooding has inundated the United States, China and Libya, as well as Kentucky and Missouri, causing more than $1 billion in damage. Wolf said in a report that studies suggest that the intensity and frequency of climate-induced errors may outweigh the increase in global temperature.
In the report, scientists say they are “shocked by the ferocity of extreme weather events in 2023. “
“We are afraid of the uncharted territory we have entered,” they wrote.
The report also notes that factors other than human-caused climate replacement could have contributed to 2023’s extreme weather and temperatures, such as the arrival of El Niño this year. A large underwater volcanic eruption could also have sent water vapor into the atmosphere. which is a greenhouse gas. Regulations restricting the sulfur content of transportation fuel would possibly have also reduced aerosols in the atmosphere, combating greenhouse gases.
Ripple said more studies are needed on the extent to which everything has shaped this excessive year, “but it is clear that climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is the main threat. “
“As global average temperatures continue to rise, the effects of short-term anomalies are likely to become increasingly severe and could be accompanied by more common excessive climate disasters,” he said in an email.
The scientists wrote that the crisis demands an effort of unprecedented magnitude.
“This is the time to make a profound difference for all life on Earth, and we will need to embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of replacement that will stand the test of time,” they wrote.
In the report, they call for a fundamental overhaul of the global economy. The world will have to move beyond fossil fuels, they write, while “decoupling” economic expansion from extractive resources such as timber, minerals, and minerals. It condemns a global economic formula that supports “excessive intake by the rich” – whose behaviours disproportionately damage the climate – while food distrust and displacement increase among low-income people.
Coal intake in particular will have to be prevented immediately, especially in China, which accounted for more than a portion of coal-related carbon emissions in 2021, according to the report.
And more land-use policies aim to sequester carbon, a key component of U. S. and foreign climate strategies, according to the report. This year, Oregon lawmakers created a $10 million fund for “natural climate solutions” that store carbon in forests, estuaries and other lands. The report calls for more studies on carbon storage and capture technologies, but warns that they should not be relied upon until they are shown and widely available.
Ripple said efforts to tackle the biodiversity crisis and climate change, for example through protective forests, can prove useful. The old-growth forests of the Northwest aid biodiversity and are home to many endangered species, from salmon to spotted owls. much more carbon than younger trees.
“Big challenges require big solutions,” the report says. “That’s why we want to move our climate emergency from a simple isolated environmental challenge to a systemic and existential threat. “
Oregon Capital Chronicle is owned by States Newsroom, a network of grant-backed news bureaus and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains its editorial independence. Please contact Editor Lynne Terry if you have questions: [email protected]. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.
by Grant Stringer, Idaho Capital Sun October 27, 2023
Earth is heading into “uncharted climate territory” and is on track to be uninhabitable for between 3 and 6 billion people by the end of the century, according to a new report.
The study, led by scientists at Oregon State University, issues dire warnings and says big changes are now coming.
The State of the Climate report, produced by weather scientists from around the world, summarizes a wealth of evidence indicating that global efforts to reduce greenhouse fuel emissions are well below the mark. The group, led by a professor and former researcher at Oregon State University, said only comprehensive measures to protect people and the environment would give humanity “our best chance for those long-term challenges. “
The report raises hopes that humanity can cut emissions fast enough to bring about a general collapse, even as scientists say Earth is already experiencing climate chaos and is finally in uncharted territory.
Twelve scientists reported Tuesday in the peer-reviewed journal BioScience, which is a publication of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. Professor William Ripple of Oregon State and former postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf are the lead authors.
“Life on planet Earth is under siege,” the report reads. “For several decades, scientists have consistently warned about a long period of excessive time due to rising global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities releasing destructive greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up.
The report summarizes forty-five studies and analyses aimed at examining the state of Earth’s “vital signs,” such as global temperatures, forest cover, and sea ice, in the context of the climate and biodiversity crisis. The authors discovered a planet in crisis dangerously close to several “tipping points” that could upend entire societies.
The odds of a “collapse of global society are feasible and dangerously underexplored,” the scientists write.
Earth broke “extraordinary” records in 2023, the report says. This summer was the era on record. In July, Earth recorded the highest daily average surface temperature ever measured, which may simply be the day on the planet in the last 100,000 years. Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent ever measured, while Canada endured a wildfire season that released more than a billion tons of carbon, more than all of the country’s emissions in 2021, according to the report.
Meanwhile, external climate action is woefully inadequate, according to the report. The authors conclude that the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of restricting global temperature to 1. 5 degrees Celsius is likely to fail. This echoes the United Nations’ own assessment last year. Let’s say Earth crossed that line this year.
The report calls for a transformative effort around the world to “increase 0. 1 (degrees Celsius) more in long-term global warming. “
The report comes a month before the scheduled assembly of world leaders and experts in the United Arab Emirates for COP 28, the UN’s annual meteorological conference.
“We want hope and action,” Ripple told the Capital Chronicle.
Ripple, a professor at Oregon State’s College of Forestry, and Wolf, now a scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in Corvallis, have been sounding the alarm for years about the crisis and biodiversity. In 2019, the two men declared an emergency to the Alliance of Global Scientists. To date, more than 15,000 scientists from 163 countries have registered.
Scientists from Germany, China, Brazil, Bangladesh, Australia and other countries contributed to this year’s State of the Climate report.
The report points to some recent developments. Global renewable energy use increased by 17% between 2021 and 2022, while the global rate of deforestation decreased by 10%. Deforestation is likely to continue to slow, thanks in part to new climate-friendly protections for Brazil’s critical Amazon rainforest. carbon sponge, the report says. Last year, the United Nations created a new “loss and damage” fund for disaster-stricken countries in the Global South that are most vulnerable to climate change.
However, scientists said progress is “minimal. “
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse fuels soared in 2021 and 2022 after a brief decline during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the environment is currently approaching 420 parts per million, far exceeding what scientists estimate. safe limit of 350 servings per million, which was exceeded in the 1980s. Coal consumption hit a record high last year, and some countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have invested record amounts in fossil fuel subsidies in reaction to the war between Russia and Ukraine. war, which has disrupted global oil and fuel supplies.
This year, scientists around the world have described an era of unprecedented climate chaos. Along with a record loss of sea ice, the temperature of the world’s oceans has reached an all-time high, while ocean acidity has reached an all-time high.
A July study by Danish scientists suggested that the inverted South Atlantic circulation, known as the Gulf Stream, could give way faster than expected this century. The sinking of the current would be a disastrous tipping point that could profoundly alter global weather patterns. .
This year, severe flooding has inundated the United States, China and Libya, as well as Kentucky and Missouri, causing more than $1 billion in damage. Wolf said in a report that studies suggest that the intensity and frequency of climate-induced errors may outweigh the increase in global temperature.
In the report, scientists say they are “shocked by the ferocity of extreme weather events in 2023. “
“We are afraid of the uncharted territory we have entered,” they wrote.
The report also notes that factors other than human-caused climate replacement could have contributed to 2023’s extreme weather and temperatures, such as the arrival of El Niño this year. A large underwater volcanic eruption could also have sent water vapor into the atmosphere. which is a greenhouse gas. Regulations restricting the sulfur content of transportation fuel would possibly have also reduced aerosols in the atmosphere, combating greenhouse gases.
Ripple said more studies are needed on the extent to which everything has shaped this excessive year, “but it is clear that climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is the main threat. “
“As global average temperatures continue to rise, the effects of short-term anomalies are likely to become increasingly severe and could be accompanied by more common excessive climate disasters,” he said in an email.
The scientists wrote that the crisis demands an effort of unprecedented magnitude.
“Now is the time to make a profound difference for all life on Earth, and we will have to embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of replacement that will stand the test of time,” they wrote.
In the report, they call for a fundamental overhaul of the global economy. The world will have to move beyond fossil fuels, they write, while “decoupling” economic expansion from extractive resources such as timber, minerals, and minerals. It condemns a global economic formula that supports “excessive intake by the rich” – whose behaviours disproportionately damage the climate – while food distrust and displacement increase among low-income people.
Coal intake in particular will have to be prevented immediately, especially in China, which accounted for more than a portion of coal-related carbon emissions in 2021, according to the report.
And more land-use policies aim to sequester carbon, a key component of U. S. and foreign climate strategies, according to the report. This year, Oregon lawmakers created a $10 million fund for “natural climate solutions” that store carbon in forests, estuaries and other lands. The report calls for more studies on carbon storage and capture technologies, but warns that they should not be relied upon until they are shown and widely available.
Ripple said efforts to tackle the biodiversity crisis and climate change, for example through protective forests, can prove useful. The old-growth forests of the Northwest aid biodiversity and are home to many endangered species, from salmon to spotted owls. much more carbon than younger trees.
“Big challenges require big solutions,” the report says. “That’s why we want to move our climate emergency from a simple isolated environmental challenge to a systemic and existential threat. “
Oregon Capital Chronicle is owned by States Newsroom, a network of grant-backed news bureaus and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains its editorial independence. Please contact Editor Lynne Terry if you have any questions: info@oregoncapitalchronicle. com. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.
Idaho Capital Sun is owned by States Newsroom, a network of grant-funded news bureaus and a coalition of donors as a 501c public charity (3). Idaho Capital Sun maintains its editorial independence. Please contact Editor Christina Lords if you have any questions: info@idahocapitalsun. com. Follow Idaho Capital Sun on Facebook and Twitter.
Grant Stringer is a freelance journalist in Oregon who writes for national newspapers such as the Washington Post and Western media outlets, Capital Chronicle and Oregonian/OregonLive. She specializes in reporting, responsive journalism, and social policy articles.
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