Con un promedio diario de 26.236 casos por Covid, la cifra de infectados sigue tensionando al sistema de salud. Pero la noticia es que la tasa de letalidad, es decir el número de fallecidos sobre el total de casos, bajó de forma significativa en comparación con el 2020.
Although mortality was 2. 8% at the beginning of the pandemic, in 2021 it would be 1. 4%, according to the National Ministry of Health. Another applicable knowledge is that 60 mayors have reduced five percentile points. 83% of patients in 2020 are over 60 years old, while the same state organization represents 78% in the existing year.
La misma tendencia decreciente también se observa al contrastar la letalidad en menores de 60 que en 2020 fue de 0,6 %, mientras que este año la cifra marcó 0,4% y en la mortalidad de mayores de 60 que fue de 15,9 % contra un 8,4% en 2021.
In addition, in personal health, the appearance of infection of COVID-19 has fallen particularly 4. 5% at the time of 2020 to less than 1% today.
How can you analyze those statistics? Clarín has consulted experts, who agree with this, so that restrictive measures can reduce the transmission curve of the disease, vaccination is the main cause why the mortality burden is falling. of vaccination.
“Los mayores de 60 se enferman poco, alrededor del 14 %, pero la mortalidad está direccionada por este grupo de edad que representa el 78 %. El elevado índice revela que aún falta completar la vacunación de adultos mayores con las dos dosis”, observa Eduardo López, médico infectólogo y asesor presidencial e insiste en la importancia de que los vacunatorios permanezcan abiertos los sábados, domingos y feriados.
“As more other people were empty, they are higher than other people than, probably, before being locked in a serious way and fallen. Faster,” describes Arnaldo Casiró, head of the infectology branch at the Álvarez Hospital , and that is why the policy is based on the infection that occurs and the time between the application and the appearance of the disease.
Leda Guzzi, infectious disease doctor, reports that as the number of instances increases and the verification capacity increases, the fatality rate decreases. “Vaccines have a positive effect on the population over 60 years of age with a relief in the number of inflamed people, namely in deaths in the number of patients hospitalized for extensive treatment and in deaths.
In the same line is Luis Cámara, infectologist and presidential advisor. “There is a protective effect on all vaccinated people over 60 who need a lower amount of care in treatment and fall less because of the effect of vaccination. Changing, in the young population the new variants (mainly, Manaos and Andina) have predilection, ”he explains.
Roberto Debbag, vice president of the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectology, two different pandemiias. Last year and the angels of the current characterized by a higher transmion speed, mayor number of infections and amount of angelesting variants (Manaus and the United Kingdom Sound of concern and Los Angeles Andina is under observation).
The age range in patients admitted to intensive therapy has been significant to an average of 55 to 57 years. The survival and recipperation capacted of this age group is Maire that the algeles of the patients who interfered during this during this In angels.
“Antes de las vacunas, la cantidad detectada por el sistema de los mayores de 60 era parecida a la cantidad de contagiados. Porque en ese rango etario casi todos los infectados presentaban síntomas. En cambio, varios menores de esa edad eran asintomáticos. Al tener muchos no detectados, el índice de letalidad real siempre es más bajo que el que se mide. Es lo que debe estar pasando ahora: el índice de letalidad real es más bajo que el que se está midiendo gracias al efecto de la vacuna”, desarrolla Mario Lozano, virólogo e investigador de Conicet.
Debbag plos angelesntea that the los angeles pandemic in Argentina is expected in 2022, probably close to the second quarter. And it differentiates it from the transmission of the disease that is predicted for the end of the year, according to the number of vaccines administered. “The first green light is given by the angels, reducing mortality in those over 60 years of age,” he indicates.
López on that the angels next three weeks are going to be hard because we are with a number of agreed cases, with a tendency to Los Angeles, and with more than 30 thousand daily. Angeles with self -care, weave the therapy beds (avoid infections) and aumm the vaccination rhythm.
“A lo largo de este mes los contagiados van a empezar a disminuir de forma significativa, no así la ocupación de las camas de terapia intensiva en número de fallecidos que en junio se van a seguir sosteniendo en un número alto. La mortalidad va a descender a partir del mes de julio y de agosto”, analiza Camera.
For Lozano, in July mortality may be imminent because 15 days ago it could be empty of the entire Risk group. Guzzi predicted that if an intense pace of vaccination is followed in the coming months, in the second half of the year a vaccination of 60% to 70% could be achieved.
PS
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