The Iranian government’s violent crackdown on protests resulting from Mahsa Amini’s assassination through Iran’s morality police is pushing the West to impose new sanctions on Iran. The U. S. Department of the Treasury Department promising that others will follow. As the protests continue to gather momentum as Iranian oil personnel go on strike, a major detail of the Shah’s fall in 1979, there is general hope that Iranian protesters could topple the mullahs and bring the country back into the network of nations.
Unfortunately, there is an explanation for why to be pessimistic. The history of the repressed protests in Iran testifies to the excessive difficulty of overthrowing an entrenched theocratic dictatorship. Iran has also protected its energy sector from sanctions to resist the escalation of sanctions that accompany each new episode of repression. in circumventing sanctions, building energy export infrastructure, locating new export partners, and expanding domestic technical expertise. Even as the country erodes, Tehran relies on foreign oil and now on revenues from arms sales to prop up the regime.
Iran has taken preemptive steps to weaken Western sanctions even before the most recent protests began. Last month, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji announced that Iran will turn east and seek investment from Japan, Korea and China while deepening political and power cooperation with friendly countries, especially China. This follows a $40 billion fuel swap deal between Russia and Iran that subsidized either regime opposed to domestic and foreign adversaries.
In eastern Iran, it has taken steps to deepen relations with Pakistan as an important first step. Connecting with the ever-power-hungry Pakistan, especially in the wake of Pakistan’s floods and self-inflicted energy policy failures, would give Iran a massive adjacent market. A direct connection between the two through the proposed “peace pipeline” would be the largest sanctions cover action Iran could undertake, but Iran would want help. Russia’s Gazprom has already volunteered. This pipeline, planned since the 1990s and cancelled or delayed, still has a way to go before it is completed. If operational, it would create a remote profit stream that would allow Iran to gain ground access to its biggest foreign benefactor, China.
A map showing the proposed allocation of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. It is planned to pass the leased port of Gwadar through China, then to the rest of Pakistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
China is the center of gravity that drives much of Iran’s foreign and power policy. Iran recently announced that it will join the Chinese-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and draft a memorandum of understanding with its members. It is China, not Pakistan, that will be the actor that will build the “peace pipeline” inside Pakistan so that Pakistan can legally circumvent any sanctions imposed on the pipeline.
The SCO, despite the many differences and contradictions among its members, is building itself as an authoritarian option for the West and NATO. The SCO is very pleased to lend a hand to Iran in its plans to oppose sanctions and ensure that Tehran’s mullahs are not threatened by their own people while Beijing agrees to reasonable oil.
NATANZ, IRAN – APRIL 9: Array overlooks the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. [ ] April 9, 2007, 180 miles south of Tehran, Iran. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced yesterday, April 9, that Iran has stepped up its uranium enrichment program, with up to 3,000 isomostly separation centrifuges in operation lately. The news condemned by the foreign network and the UN. Iran’s most sensible nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, showed increased activity but declined to give main points on the matter. (Photo via Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
Iran’s energy policy measures are not limited to its hydrocarbon efforts. Iran comes with nuclear power in its relations with the SCO. Since EE. UU. se withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, energy from Moscow and Beijing and broader geopolitical cooperation with Tehran have multiplied. This nuclear integration and the prospect of an absolutely unlimited uranium source for Russia may simply be catastrophic for the West. Not only would this cooperation help the mullahs in their pursuit of nuclear weapons, but diversifying Iran’s energy sector would allow it to lose more oil for export and extra isolate the regime.
Closer bilateral relations between Moscow and Tehran have already allowed Iran to supply Russia with drones for use in Ukraine, joint naval training and broader economic cooperation. With internal unrest in Iran forcing Tehran’s hand, all those trends seem to be accelerating and consciously. Unfortunately, it turns out that Iran’s strategy is working, and energy-dependent foreign profit streams will continue to grow unless the United States takes action.
Russian army officers conduct army training on the diversity of Prudboy shots in the Volgograd region of southern Russia. [ ] Russia, September 24, 2020, the army trainings “Caucasus-2020” also bring together Chinese, Iranian, Pakistani and Burmese troops such as the former Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus. Up to 250 tanks and about 450 infantry fighting cars and armored personnel carriers will participate in naval and floor training from September 21 to 26 involving 80,000 workers, adding worker help corps. (Photo via Dimitar DILKOFF/AFP) (Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images)
Just as sanctions against Russia were designed to undermine its war apparatus without provoking full integration with China, sanctions against Iran should be designed in such a way that they do not inspire further integration with the SCO. Said than done, however, it can be done through Western aid and engagement with Pakistan and India by encouraging both sides to care more about the Arabian Peninsula while investing in their domestic energy production. This can also be done through strengthening relations with Azerbaijan. and Turkmenistan and promote energy exports to Pakistan through the Middle Corridor.
The West will also have to find the political courage to invest in its own energy resources outside OPEC’s control. The formula is not innovative, but it is effective: LNG as a transitional fuel and investment in nuclear power until more renewables come online. .
If the West is honest about employing sanctions to increase the demonstrators’ chances of smart fortune and prevent the emergence of the SCO as an authoritarian counterweight, it will have to build a more complicated and efficient set of sanctions in power. While it is vital to engage in the sanctions already in place and all aid will need to be delivered to protesters, the West will also have to target Iran’s energy export sector, namely technology, finance, shipping and insurance. The sanctions imposed on members of Iran’s moral police and the Revolutionary Guard Corps are a smart start, but not enough. If we can’t meet those challenges, expect more turbulence from Iran rather than mere protests.
Co-written with Wesley Alexander Hill