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With that of Ari Hawkins and Charlie Mahtesian
ON BOARD: This week has brought an avalanche of economic knowledge about the fitness of the U. S. economy.
In the abstract, the number can seem confusing and even contradictory. The economy grew at a faster rate in the fourth quarter of 2022 than many expected and narrowly escaped the year’s recession. Good news! Inflation turns out to be falling steadily.
Let’s all be good, right? Burst the bottles. Crisis averted.
Yes, very much.
Many economists, Wall Street executives and business leaders still expect a recession later this year through 2024. Because other data shows that the super-resilient U. S. customer who has kept things afloat with higher generational inflation looks set to run out of room to keep the rate. of spending that accounts for nearly 70% of the U. S. economy.
For what? At the bottom of the income stream scale, the pile of savings accumulated during the pandemic with the help of super-generous federal aid is still gone.
U. S. companies The U. S. government largely sees recession coming in the wake of all the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, as recessions stick to rate-raising campaigns. And this concern of companies, which can create a recession if it turns into panic, seems to be in the knowledge about decreasing spending on new appliances and amenities and in other areas, such as the use of additional transient assistance (which is decreasing) and the number of hours worked (also decreasing).
When you review and erase the big stack of numbers, you get a picture of a remarkably resilient American economy, about to escape the historic effect of a global pandemic, terribly high inflation, and a rapid super-set of oversized interest rates. Fed hikes.
Or it may be that with the same gentleness, perhaps even more gently, it will turn into a recession of an intensity and duration absolutely unknown. Theoretically, there is no major imbalance in the economy leading to a long and painful decline.
There is no dot-com bubble to burst (just a cryptographic collapse that peak functional brains saw coming). The housing industry is already falling into recession territory as loan rates skyrocket.
But this isn’t 2008-2009 with an incredibly inflated housing market subsidized through terribly leveraged Wall Street banks (leverage is a fancy term for borrowed money). Any recession deserves to be manageable.
But each economic downturn is its own unique beast, driven by both feelings and data. That’s why you hear Fed Chairman Jerome Powell say at every opportunity that he hopes recession can be avoided. But if someone were to arrive, they have no idea how long or how serious the stage will be. No one knows.
Nor is there an economic forecaster on this planet or any other planet who can tell you with any degree of certainty whether our current economy will return to its pre-pandemic slow but steady expansion trajectory, or plunge into a recession.
The Biden White House, of course, believes that we can avoid recession and even emerge more powerful from it as the impact of everything they have adopted in recent years on green technologies and semiconductors, etc. is implemented.
And reasons for hope abound, as GDP figures showed on Thursday, showing an annualized expansion rate of 2. 9% for the quarter and a 2. 1% gain for the year.
And today’s inflation figures showed that the index of non-public consumption spending (PCE) on food and energy (the Fed’s holy grail figure) rose 4. 4% in December compared to the same time last year, up from 4. 7% in November – the slowest speed since October 2021. worse than the consensus expectation of a 0. 1% cut.
There is still the big open question of whether the Fed can find the best time to avoid (and probably lower) rate hikes that kill inflation without triggering a recession. high.
Then there’s the question of whether a brutal war on the debt limit this summer spookes markets and collapses the entire delicately balanced design for no clever reason. This could cause a recession. And good luck with any fiscal bailout in this case with a divided government in Washington and the 2024 election just around the corner.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Connect with news, tips and concepts at [email protected]. Or tap tonight at [email protected] or Twitter at @morningmoneyben.
“Diversity alone would probably not replace surveillance” after another black man was killed by police: Five Memphis police officers were charged Thursday with murder and other crimes similar to the homicide of Tire Nichols, who was beaten by officials and died 3 days ago. Later. At a press conference today, Nichols’ family attorney Ben Crump praised the speed with which the Memphis district attorney acted to indict officials in the case, while Attorney General Merrick Garland suggested that all resulting protests be peaceful and nonviolent. The Memphis Police Department is expected to release a video of the incident tonight, which began with a traffic prevention and involved five black police officers. In a special edition of The Recast, Brakkton Booker spoke with several law enforcement experts who agreed that solving violence problems will require more than diversifying force members.
Ronna McDaniel wins RNC presidential race: Ronna McDaniel will serve a rare fourth term as chairman of the Republican National Committee, victorious from a questionable bid for re-election. McDaniel defeated his main rival, California RNC national committee member Harmeet Dhillon, through a vote. MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, whose crusade garnered little support, won 4 votes. The two-month race sparked debates about how the RNC dealt with its finances and put McDaniel and his allies on the defensive and forced the outgoing president to level a competitive flogging operation to bolster his support.
New video and audio attack Paul Pelosi in horrific detail: Newly released video and audio show Paul Pelosi’s violent confrontation last fall with a home intruder who outlined his plans to attack then-President Nancy Pelosi and other elected officials. A San Francisco sentencing this week ordered several pieces of evidence opposing suspect David DePape to be made public, adding camera footage, a 911 call from Pelosi’s home and a recording of DePape’s interview with police.
House GOP Approves Bill to Restrict Biden’s Use of Oil Reserves: House Republicans have passed a bill that aims to restrict President Joe Biden’s ability to exploit the country’s oil reserves, a bid through the new House majority to rebuke the White House for major oil spills. last year to curb rising gasoline prices. But the bill, which passed 221-205, was largely an effort of Republican messages. The democratically controlled Senate has no plans to back down, and the White House has already vowed to veto the bill if it reaches Biden’s office. A Democrat joined the Republican majority in voting for the bill.
TIKTOK PROBLEM TREND: U. S. lawmakersand the European Union are applying new restrictions to TikTok over fears that its Chinese parent company will simply spy on Western users.
More than 30 U. S. states The U. S. has limited TikTok on government devices and this week Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo. ) announced a law that would ban the app nationwide. it’s likely due to disappointed delicate relations between Beijing and the West, Ari Hawkins reports for Nightly.
Most social apps collect information such as names and IP data, but lawmakers have warned that TikTok, owned by Beijing-based ByteDance, could be forced to leak Western user data to the ruling Chinese Communist Party.
“We have national security concerns,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in November. “They come with the option that the Chinese government can use it to collect information on millions of users. “
Hostilities toward the short-form video app intensified outside the U. S. The U. S. government was in the U. S. after TikTok admitted to having knowledge of IP to spy on journalists, the British Financial Times added.
French President Emmanuel Macron called TikTok the “most disruptive medium” for younger generations at an intellectual fitness event last month. European Union regulators have warned that the app will have to comply with EU privacy rules or threaten to be banned altogether in the bloc.
Dutch ministries also called on the public government this week to “suspend the use of TikTok” until the app has “adjusted its data coverage policy. “
Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, told Nightly that “recently, with the law relaxed in Hong Kong, China has aggressively established a digitally dependent surveillance state in Beijing. “
“People are starting to be wary of this, they are more cautious and there is a growing sense that China is the spouse it has been for much of the last 40 years,” he added.
TikTok, which has long denied reports that its parent company is exploiting the personal data of Western users, has put forward a lobbying crusade to address Western security concerns. The initiative, known as Project Texas, came after former President Donald Trump issued two executive orders. intended to restrict enforcement.
Shou Zi Chew, the company’s CEO, is said to have embarked on a charm offensive in Europe. The company’s leader met with members of the European Commission earlier this month after EU regulators released a report alleging privacy concerns.
“TikTok went from a relatively low public profile to a fairly active participation in lobbying efforts because they realized their old technique wasn’t working. In the U. S. In the U. S. and the EU, society realizes that lawmakers just let this go,” Daly added.
James Lewis, director of the generation and public policy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warns that TikTok may be the source of legal battles in the coming years.
“The app is thought to be loose speech, which makes TikTok difficult to ban on either block. . . It’s a complicated scenario with implications for how tech corporations are treated in Europe and the US. “U. S. “
RETHINKING DEPRESSION: More than 80% of the population believes that depression is caused by a “chemical imbalance” in the brain. This makes sense: textbooks and study articles cite such a chemical imbalance when describing the prestige of fitness all the time. In particular, the argument goes, a deficiency of the chemical serotonin causes other people to become depressed. However, clinical studies recommend that a serotonin deficiency is far from the only thing that causes, or contributes, to depression. In fact, a recent review of the literature found no transparent evidence. that lower serotonin levels were even linked to depression. This means that neuropsychiatry researchers have the opportunity to reconsider the causes of depression, what the disease is, and how it can be treated well. Joanna Thompson reports for Quanta magazine.
JOIN POLITICO ON 9/2 TO HEAR FROM U. S. GOVERNORS. In a divided Congress, more legislation and policy enforcement will move to the states, meaning governors will play a leading role in setting the nation’s agenda. Join POLITICO on Thursday, February 9 at the D. C. Innovation Center, from World Wide Technology to The Fifty: America’s Governors, where we’ll see where inventions and new regulatory red lines are taking shape, the long-term of reproductive health, and how climate replacement is being addressed. A series of individual interviews. REGISTER HERE.
TRUMP’S TEST DRIVE: Whether you know it or not, the 2024 presidential race is already underway, writes Nightly’s Charlie Mahtesian. For now, most movements are positioning themselves in the so-called invisible primaries, where applicants seek to bring it to life. its notoriety, refining its message, identifying donor networks, and quietly winning over party elites and the most sensible grassroots activists.
This weekend, however, the invisible number one is about to become very visual and public as Trump reviews the crusade of his first two appearances in the state. Trump, the only Republican candidate to have already announced his candidacy, will travel to New Hampshire. and South Carolina on Saturday hoping to give his crusade a much-needed dose of adrenaline.
So far, his attempt to return to the White House has been met with the equivalent of a golf shot. Trump remains the dominant figure in the party, but after a disappointing election cycle in 2022, an outcome for which many Republicans blame him, there is no notable reluctance to line him up again. His announcement of the November crusade failed and he is grappling with the growing popularity of the Republican Party under Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
It is in this context that Trump will make his first visit to New Hampshire since the fall of 2020. It’s not exactly Trump’s country: Popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who is being discussed as a 2024 presidential candidate, is one of Trump’s nominees. Critical
New Hampshire scored Trump’s first number one victory in 2016, but since then everything has gone downhill. In that year’s general election, Trump lost the state by less than 3,000 votes to Hillary Clinton. Then, in mid-2018, a Trump-inspired Democratic wave reversed the state legislature. In 2020, New Hampshire wasn’t even close: Trump lost to Biden, 53 percent to forty-five percent.
South Carolina, where Trump will hold a rally Saturday night, has been kinder to the former president: After winning the 2016 primary, he triumphed smoothly in the state twice. However, Trump faces another challenge there: the presence of Senator Tim Scott. and former Gov. Nikki Haley, who are the most sensible presidential candidates for 2024 and have the loyalty of many state Republicans. That made it difficult for Trump to stage a big demonstration of his candidacy on Saturday.
Together, Saturday’s two appearances will shape the GOP number one’s next situation: how long Trump will remain the transparent front-runner for the nomination.
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