Matthew Flinders, University of Sheffield and Anthony Pereira, King’s College London
Donald Trump and his wife Melania tested positive for COVID-19 and are now quarantined, destabilizing 2020. La US president’s coronavirus infection campaign follows those of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. and spent two weeks in the hospital in April, Bolsonaro had a milder case of the disease in July. The verbal exchange asked two experts from British and Brazilian politics to assess the effect of COVID-19 capture on the two leaders.
Matthew Flinders, professor of policy and founding director of sir Bernard Crick Centre for Public Understanding of Politics, University of Sheffield
Time has to do with politics. A crisis can turn into a triumph and a hero at 0 in the blink of an eye. With the presidential election a month away, a look at the consequences for Donald Trump of testing positive for COVID-19 can be accomplished through Boris Johnson. tap with the virus.
First, it is imaginable that in the short term, at least, Trump can gain advantages from the resumption of his polls, as a “meeting around the flag” effect sees the united audience around the president’s workplace at a time of uncertainty. It is not known whether Trump’s disease will become a component of the public psyche and will have an effect on an institutional crisis, an herb crisis or a war.
But if Johnson’s delight has something to say (and that’s a big yes), then a “Trump tick” is possible. As YouGov’s knowledge shows, Johnson’s move to extensive care in April seemed to bring a balm to his critics and his Public Approval Ratings have increased, but a wave of criticism by the government itself had actually begun a few days before Johnson announced that he had tested positive.
The concept of the moment is that if the “Bounce of Boris” has anything to do with it, then a Trump increase in polls will be short-lived. The recovery effect can also slide into a kind of dramatic slowdown when the audience begins to wonder if its leader is up to their position, or possibly even hampered by the persistent fatigue of the “long COVID. “This turns out to have happened to Johnson, because even those around him admit that he turns out to have lost his rebound. .
Johnson’s sudden and dramatic decline over the virus can lead Trump’s team to think twice about the “status quo” technique existing from the confines of the White House.
The third concept is that this can make Trump a slightly more humble character. Trump responded to the pandemic in a fairly calm manner, brushing the contempt forsatic. His comments on injecting bleach as a perspective were symptomatic of a president. that seemed disconnected and for some of his mind.
At least in the short term, Johnson came out of his illness with a new zeal for staying, having compatibility and losing weight. The Prime Minister’s online page in his workplace accompanied through an avalanche of new government-backed healthy exercise and meal campaigns.
But overall, Johnson did not recover after having COVID-19, neither his approval ratings nor the British public’s confidence in his government’s ability to manage the pandemic. Politically, however, what is at stake is much lower for Johnson than for Trump, as the upcoming British election is not scheduled until 2024.
Anthony Pereira, professor at King’s Brazil Institute and Department of International Development, King’s College London
The news of Donald Trump’s positive check for COVID-19 is being widely watched in Brazil. When Jair Bolsonaro tested positive in July, anchored the prospects of Brazil’s questionable president, for Bolsonaro himself, as well as for his unconditional base of about a third of The Brazilian Electorate, this demonstrated what he had said, that he would not be seriously affected by what he called a “small flu” , due to his beyond his experience as an athlete.
For Brazilians who abhorred the president’s attitude towards COVID-19, adding his insistence that only the elderly and the sick participate in the lockdowns, and his attacks on governors who imposed broader measures, Bolsonaro’s positive check showed what they were already feeling: that ignorant Bolsonaro Many felt was completely predictable, given their penchation for mixing with supporters without a mask , who would contract the disease.
It appears that Bolsonaro had a mild case of coronavirus, reported after leaving 20 days of self-disalrillation that he had “mold in his lungs”.
Since July, Bolsonaro has undergone a kind of transformation, largely having stopped attacking other branches of government, adding the Supreme Court and Congress; perhaps more importantly, it also agreed to pay an emergency source of income in addition to the deficient of six. 100 rands (about 90 euros) in line with the month. Income support now reaches 65 million beneficiaries, or more than 30% of the population of about 210 million people. Bolsonaro’s management has proposed expanding it, to separate its previous price, to the end. December.
This would possibly have played a role, though not the only one, in particularly improving the president’s approval rates. In a CNI/Ibope vote of 2,000 electorates between 17 and 20 September, Bolsonaro obtained an approval rating of 40%, the highest since his presidency began in January 2019. So the lesson to be learned is perhaps that there is political life after receiving coronavirus, at least for Bolsonaro.
Meanwhile, Brazil will hold municipal elections on November 15 and 29, but Bolsonaro lately has no political party, has fought with other leaders of the Liberal Social Party, the organization with which he campaigned for the presidency in 2018, and left the party in November 2019: his attempt to create a new party failed, and municipal elections could cause management complaints to take effect in some of Brazil’s major cities , making November a watershed month for the Trump-Bolsonaro alliance.
Matthew Flinders, founding director of the Sir Bernard Crick Centre for Public Understanding of Politics, University of Sheffield and Anthony Pereira, Director, King’s Brazil Institute and Professor, Department of International Development, King’s College London
This article has been republished from The Conversation, a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The U. S. President’s coronavirus infection. Follow those of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
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