One of the most striking photographs of the latest news is that of the leaders of France, Germany and Italy in a compartment exercise in the direction of Kiev. Trains have played a vital role in the history of European wars. For example, the armistices of the First and Second World Wars were signed in wagons, and the professionalization of the elegance of German army officers in the run-up to World War I was motivated by the need to rationalize confusing exercise schedules (this is a long story).
Emmanuel Macron’s holiday in Kiev gave him a well-deserved opportunity to explain his position on the war, his return to Paris was less fortunate as he then lost the absolute majority in parliament. My feeling is that the rise of the extreme left and right in France is less negative in the short term for Macron: he will probably win the help of the right “Les Républicains”, perhaps in the long term he will take advantage of Edouard Philippe. What appeals to me most is how the war in Ukraine, democracy in general and in France in particular, are all linked.
Generally speaking, democracy is in trouble. According to The Economist’s Intelligence Unit, 13% of the world’s countries are democracies in their own right. What worries most is the erosion of democracy in countries with primary democracy, such as Boris Johnson’s lack of conviction. opposition to the excavator of British establishments and the rule of law, and the reckless way in which many Americans have welcomed the findings of the January 6 investigation.
French democracy is in a much better position than its two Atlantic neighbours, along with Ireland, all four countries are in the crucible of modern liberal democracy, but it remains problematic. In this context, France is an attractive case to examine. A lot of rasones.
The first is that politically, largely thanks to Macron’s political energy, it is the most important country in Europe. On the exercise trip to Ukraine, Mario Draghi called Macron “president of Europe. “it’s Europe.
Secondly, the French political formula is becoming: the two dominant parties of the last 40 years have been crushed by Macron’s “revolution from one aspect of the formula” and is now surrounded by both sides through two strangers to the formula (they have been around for so long that they are actually inaspectrs), who protect the discontented and who, to varying degrees, are friends of Russia. As such, the French formula has moved from left to right, inaspect opposed to outaspectr, or more precisely “top opposite to the bottom”, although Le Pen and Melanchon are also perhaps richer than Macron, the “pre-aspect of the rich”!
France is also attractive because, while the disproportionate role of the state has managed to mitigate the blows of successive crises (the eurozone, COVID and now inflation), it has also created a broad vision that the state is the solution to all ills. At this stage, this continues because with public spending equivalent to or greater than 55% of GDP, France no longer has fiscal room for manoeuvre.
Roe v. Wade
As far as French democracy is feared, this can produce forced and attractive inventions, such as more wonderful attention from citizens’ assemblies and more autonomy for the regions. Expect to be more informed about those and other “smart” concepts about democracy, my wonderful fear. it is that they fall on deaf ears and that anything disturbing has to happen for others to realize the challenge that awaits them.
What would happen if Russia won the war in Ukraine?In this regard, winning the war does not require Russia to take Kiev, but to take and destroy the southern and eastern perimeter of Ukraine, call for peace, and then withdraw on the basis of the uprising. of sanctions. Other occasions follow, Navalny dies mysteriously, Russia sends grain to friendly countries, and the Russian military and advertising categories are purged of anyone who is not “hardline”.
This is a miserable scenario, but it underscores the fact that while the two major English-speaking democracies are experiencing their own internal political turmoil and institutional decline (Roe v. Wade the last example), Europe is in the midst of an existential struggle around democratic values. In this struggle, Ukraine, Serbia, Moldova, Hungary, Georgia and Belarus are all border states, and they will all have to decide on the sides, and they will certainly be led to decide on the sides.
I am not sure that European leaders completely master this. When they do, a vital task awaits them: to pay more attention and integrate the perspectives of the Baltic states and even Poland (France will have to pay attention conscientiously), while dealing more and more severely with non-democratic countries such as Hungary. Countries like France will have to lead by example by converting legislation on political finance and media ownership. At European level, it is mandatory to pay attention to other people and integrate their desires into practice. Functioning of European liberal democracy, which formulates a theoretical position on the Enlightenment.
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