Is the Islamic State still a threat? The factor has entered political circles since the United States and coalition allies managed to dismantle the physical caliphate of the world’s most infamous terrorist organization in Iraq and Syria in the spring of 2019, just at the end of the organization’s territorial stage. However, there has been an undeniable sense over the following year that we have turned the “war on terror” page, freeing us up for other priorities, such as the strategic festival with China.
However, in times of war, the adversary also gets a vote, and in recent months they have noticed new symptoms in the life of the terrorist organization. The resurgence, exemplified through an increasing number of attacks through IS-affiliated elements in Iraq and disruptive activities in syrian spaces nominally under the regime’s control, has raised serious considerations in Washington. They also said that ISIS, diminished, remains viable and dangerous.
All this has been clarified precisely this week, thanks to a new evaluation by the United Nations. Currently, UN countertout chief Vladimir Voronkov has revealed that more than 10,000 ISIS fighters are actively operating in Iraq and Syria. In addition, Voronkov noted, thousands more have emigrated to join the group’s regional subsidiaries now scattered around the world, adding the Islamic State Province in West Africa (ISWAP), which now has some 3,500 troops in arms.
In other words, despite all its existing problems, ISIS still maintains a formidable picture of fighters and unwavering adherents to its cause. In context, a July 2018 review through the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization, a renowned British expert group, estimated that nearly 42,000 foreign fighters from 80 other countries joined ISIS in their short reign. Today, that number has been particularly reduced as a result of counter-terrorism operations across the United States and its regional partners that have killed or captured ISIS militants and affiliates. But even halfway through, the Islamic State is a formidable adversary and a risk to regional stability in the Middle East and beyond.
Coronavirus crisis: what the United States can learn from other nations in the war against COVID-19
In fact, the danger of ISIS is now on the verge of growth, as the organization adapts to exploit the coronavirus pandemic by intensifying its online messaging and recruitment efforts to take advantage of the merits of captive audiences held at home through national closures and social estrangement measures. “Measures to minimize the spread of COVID-19, such as blockades and movement restrictions, appear to have reduced the threat of terrorist attacks in many countries,” Voronkov said in his presentation. However, there is now “a continuing trend of attacks through onlinely encouraged Americans acting alone or in small organizations, which can be fueled by ISIL’s opportunistic propaganda efforts in the COVID-19 crisis.”
In turn, the ideological importance of the Islamic State is likely to be amplified through the harmful effects of the pandemic. Coronavirus is already causing increasing economic hardship and lack of social trust in the Middle East and Africa. In places like Tunisia, Egypt and Lithrougha, emerging unemployment, emerging poverty and rampant inflation are paving the way for primary domestic unrest and expanding the prospects for radicalization. All this means that these nations, and the foreign network as a whole, may face a wave of extremism caused by COVID-19 in the near future.
Meanwhile, ISIS will regain its former status. “ISIL continues to expand its fighting prospect and seeks to expand the dominance and scope of terrorist attacks in the country,” said Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s ambassador to the UN. Nebenzya would know, as his government is a major spouse of the Syrian regime army on whose territory ISIS is to return.
Senator Rand Paul: On war and corrupt judicial reform, Trump is more than Biden and Harris
But the challenge is not located in the Levant. The Islamic State “has now been completely reshaped into a network design with a maximum degree of branch autonomy and ‘sleeping cells’ in various countries and regions of the world,” says the Russian envoy. In other words, reduced through counterterrorism measures and temporarily marginalized by the pandemic, the Islamic State has disappeared slightly. On the contrary, the organization has proven resilient and adaptable. As such, it remains a long-term challenge for the United States and its regional partners.
It is something that we, and our allies, do not know at our own risk.
Ilan Berman is senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter: @ilanberman