Weeks after supporters of an influential cleric stormed parliament, Iraq’s political crisis shows no signs of abating, despite emerging public anger over a debilitating stalemate that has further weakened the country’s interim government and its ability to provide basic services.
The two rival Shiite political camps in Iraq remain locked in zero-sum competition, and the voice potentially capable of ending the divide, respected Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has remained remarkably silent.
For now, many supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, an incendiary Shiite cleric, are still camping outside Baghdad’s legislative building, in a position to step up their demands if they are not met.
Al-Sadr for early elections, the dissolution of parliament and constitutional amendments. It gave the judiciary a weekend deadline to dissolve the legislature.
His Shiite rivals in the Iranian-backed camp have their terms. They accused him of violating the constitution, provoking counter-protests that sparked fears of bloodshed.
On Sunday, Iraq’s highest judiciary said it did not have the strength to dissolve the country’s parliament. The Superior Council of the Judiciary said after an assembly that the country’s political teams deserve not to involve the judiciary in their “political rivalries and competences. “”
Neither faction seems willing to budge to end the 10-month political crisis, the longest since the 2003 U. S. invasion, which restored political order. while the public protests poor services, adding force cuts off the summer heat.
UNITING WARRING FACTIONS
When al-Sadr ordered thousands of sympathizers to typhoon the rule of Baghdad’s heavily fortified government on July 30, he paralyzed state establishments and prevented his political rivals from proceeding with the formation of a government.
Al-Sadr might have been emboldened by the silence of al-Sistani, 92, a respected non-secular figure whose word has great influence among leaders and Iraqis.
Three officials at the al-Sistani seminary in the holy city of Najaf said he had used his influence because he wanted to appear to be taking sides in the most acute internal Shiite crisis since 2003. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were allowed to tell the media.
“The Marjaiya is watching the scenario with concern,” one of the officials said, referring to the ayatollah. He said al-Sistani “will not interfere at this time. Their access can be perceived as something that benefits one party more than another. “
Al-Sistani rarely intervened in political affairs, but when he did, he followed the course of Iraqi politics.
In 2019, his sermon led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi amid mass anti-government protests, the largest in Iraq’s fashionable history. Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s management vowed to hold early elections, which they took office in October.
The ayatollah has grown tired of the existing Iraqi political dynamic, the official in Najaf said. He hasn’t resumed his old Friday sermons, he suspended the pandemic. Its doors remain closed to Iraq’s political elites, a sign that it disapproves of them.
The Najaf seminary is also divided on al-Sadr. Some fear that his audacity will deepen the Shiite divide, while others approve of his anti-corruption and reformist rhetoric. Dozens of seminary scholars recently joined the protests.
Al-Sistani has red lines that, if crossed, would force him to intervene, officials said. They come with bloodshed and attempts to erode what are Iraq’s democratic foundations.
“Muqtada knows those red lines and will cross them,” one official said.
LOOKING FOR A WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS
Even if Shiite rivals agreed to hold elections, there are basic differences over electoral rules. There is no legal precedent for consulting decision makers.
Al-Sadr has hinted that he will accentuate the protests if the judiciary dissolves parliament by the end of the week. The judiciary reaffirmed Sunday that it had the strength to dissolve the legislature.
His rivals in the coordination framework alliance, made up of Shiite parties largely subsidized across Iran, say al-Sadr’s pressure on the judiciary is unconstitutional. They are not opposed to new elections, as long as there is a national consensus on what the vote will look like. Made.
Such a consensus is unattainable.
Al-Sadr needs to use the same rules as in the October elections, when Iraq was divided into 83 constituencies. The current law benefits parties with a forged base like al-Sadr’s, which has increased its number of seats from 54 to 73, while Iranian-backed parties have noticed their number dropping from 48 to 16.
The Framework requires that the law be amended. However, the construction of the parliament is closed, with many al-Sadr supporters camping outdoors preventing parliamentarians from entering.
WHAT THE REST OF IRAQ THINKS
Ordinary Iraqis are frustrated that the interim government is suffering to provide critical services, such as electricity and water.
The political crisis comes at a time of emerging unemployment, especially among young Iraqis. The country has suffered consecutive droughts that have severely affected the agricultural and fishing industries, reducing employment prospects.
Protests in southern Iraq turned violent last week after stone-throwing protesters clashed with security forces outside oil fields in Missan and Dhi Qar provinces. More than a dozen protesters were arrested and more than a dozen members of the security forces were injured.
In Iran, Mustafa Hashem protested the severe shortage of water that sustains Iraq’s swamps. He said security forces were engaged in a “brutal and unjustified crackdown” against nonviolent protesters.
Other protests took place in the southern province of Basra after 3 consecutive days of forced cuts from the peak summer heat. Protests are not unusual during the summer in Iraq, when rising temperatures overwhelm the national grid, causing blackouts. This year, many protesters have called for al-Sadr to protect their rights.
Salinity levels in Basra this summer are about the same as four years ago, when tens of thousands of people were hospitalized due to poor water quality, environmentalist Shukri al-Hassan said. of massive anti-government rallies the following year.
Unable to pass a budget law, the interim government has resorted to interim measures to finance pressing expenses such as food and electricity bills to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, investments, including water infrastructure, have been blocked.
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