We took almost the same ones and started over. Same capital, same hotel, same mediation organization and same goal. Representatives of the five main opposition candidates in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – Denis Mukwege, Moïse Katumbi, Martin Fayulu, Delly Sesanga and Matata Ponyo Mapon – have been meeting since Monday, November 13, at a sumptuous private estate in East Pretoria, South Africa, with mediators from the In Transformation Initiative (ITI). to try to present a joint candidacy against the outgoing head of state, Félix Tshisekedi, in the presidential elections scheduled for 20 December.
The non-governmental organization (NGO), which specializes in conflict resolution, had already been contacted through the Congolese opposition, for the same purpose, before the 2018 elections and when the succession of Joseph Kabila was at stake. The founders were involved in negotiations between the racist Afrikaner government and liberation movements that led to the fall of the apartheid regime in 1994 and the first democratic elections in South Africa. Since then, this country has “a foreign style of peace and hope,” he boasts on the NGO’s website.
Their method: to take the candidates out of their old environment, to take them out of sight and media noise together for several days. In this way, the discussions discussed in the consultation of the whole can continue more comfortably over breakfast and dinner. Proximity invites the applicants’ representatives to meet other elders personally, even if in this case they hardly want to.
This bubble is fundamental, according to ITI. La good luck of this type of initiative, especially in the initial phases, is precisely that they are adopted without much communication. The discussions want to move forward. If from day one all applicants share their views with the media, we will make some progress. It’s very sensitive,” insists a user familiar with the NGO’s methods. “No comment. ” It’s moving forward,” replies the representative of a candidate who has been asked.
The delegates were divided into two commissions to work on the criteria for a common candidacy and a common project, knowing that the security factor in the east of the country already has consensus among them. On Thursday, the commissions reviewed their roadmap for five facilitators, members of ITI, as well as Lucha, a Congolese civil society organization. Discussions ensued and work is expected to conclude on Friday with the finalization of a final version. On Thursday afternoon we had not yet made a decision and time is running out: the electoral crusade began on Sunday.
“I think there is something positive, a secure harmony, a preference for reaching a conclusion that can satisfy all parties,” said a candidate representative who followed the negotiations from Kinshasa on Thursday and said he appreciated “the continued approach that makes our aim”. “. However, the experience of 2018 calls for caution. Despite months of negotiations, to which was added a consultation in Pretoria in September, candidates Felix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe withdrew from the agreement signed 24 hours earlier in Geneva that had designated Martin Fayulu as the only opposition candidate.
“All we need is for whoever is nominated as a joint candidate to be elected unanimously to avoid the mistakes of the past,” said one delegate. “Given the way the paintings are being made, I think it will be conceivable to do it,” he adds optimistically. “Was the atmosphere good?” Between politicians in a debate for the conquest of power, I can’t say for sure,” joked the same delegate. But beyond the differences, we are moving forward. “
The content of the negotiations within the Congolese opposition is also of interest to the South African host. The government has publicly discussed these debates and has not responded to Le Monde’s requests, but “it is vigilant,” said an observer quoted above. In 2018, opposition candidates were defeated at the headquarters of the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling party.
For South Africa, those negotiations reinforce its symbol as a diplomatic destination where conflicts can be resolved around the table. A year ago, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front signed a peace agreement in Pretoria after spending several days at an undisclosed location. This would be proof “that African responses to African problems are conceivable,” South Africa’s Ministry of International Relations said in a statement marking the first anniversary of the agreement on Nov. 2.
Beyond the image, South Africa is interested in the stability of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A disputed election would likely force President Cyril Ramaphosa and the member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to spend Christmas together. An electoral crisis could also further jeopardize the stability of the Democratic Republic of Congo, as the South African army has 1,144 troops in MONUSCO, the United Nations mission. Although Congolese citizens do not make up the largest immigrant population, this option may push more people into exile in South Africa as Pretoria takes a tougher grip on the illegal immigrant factor in the run-up to its own 2024 general election. One choice can hide another.