This is only compatible with IE 8 and later, so browse at your own risk or upgrade.Internet Explorer: IE8 以 推 奨 そ れ 以前 ブ ウ ザ を ご 使用 方 は 最 版 に プ グ て く だ さ。
M / CLOUDED
COVID-19 infections continue to accumulate daily in Japan.We will have to assume that this highly contagious new coronavirus will continue to seriously affect people’s lives and the economy for a wealth of time, and that government control of the economy will be a major challenge in the future.
Like many other countries around the world, Japan has taken competitive steps to address the pandemic-induced economic recession.As the COVID-19 crisis turns out to last even longer, we face serious challenges: how to maintain and expand ordinary policies – and how to address the side effects of these competitive measures.
The serious economic crisis first manifested itself in global industry, which has long been the engine of growth.The volume of global industry in April fell by 16% compared to the previous year, a decrease even more pronounced than when the Great Depression hit in the past.1920s – when nations severely limited the mutual movement of other people and property through measures such as blockades.
The United States, which has a great deal of influence on global growth, has brought far broader economic measures than others, given that its COVID-19 instances exceeded 5.38 million, the highest in the world, and because it faces a presidential election in November.However, the U.S. economy in the April-June era plummeted by 32.9% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter, and large budget spending to counter the pandemic is expected to bring the government deficit to a record $3.7 trillion.
The US Federal Reserve’s competitive financial easing of the US Federal Reserve is aBut it’s not the first time It lowered genuine interest rates, which caused the dollar index to fall by 4% in July, the biggest drop in 10 years.Here are some of the examples of the primary macroeconomic balance adjustments that are occurring.macroeconomic control in a medium- to long-term perspective, while addressing immediate pandemic disorders.
Japan’s economy was also seriously affected by the crisis, with gross domestic product from April to June falling 27.8% after the war in annual terms compared to the previous quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the government has taken ambitious and unprecedented measures to tackle the pandemic, adding a fixed payment of 100,000 yen for each individual and up to 2 million yen in cash for companies and the self-employed who have lost sales. . All of those steps were inevitable in the short term, given the stark truth of the economic losses from COVID-19, but those steps have led to new problems.
One is the deterioration of Japan’s fiscal situation.From the early 2000s to Lehman’s surprise in 2008, the country’s annual overall account budget remained around 83 trillion yen.diversity of one hundred trillion yen, a point that continued in the coming years, but the final budget has increased to 160 trillion yen this year as a result of the great measures taken to deal with the pandemic. Tax revenues for 2020 are estimated at around 63 trillion yen., according to medium- and long-term economic and fiscal forecasts published by the government at the end of July, meaning that the government will incur nearly one hundred trillion yen in budget deficits, three times more than in recent years.
Monetary policy has also contributed to primary macroeconomic changes: the source of cash in terms of M2 jumped by 28% in June alone, compared to year-on-year increases of less than 3% in the years leading up to the emergence of the new coronavirus The figure shows that the Bank of Japan has taken financial action for the government’s competitive economic policy action.
In the past, an ambitious fiscal and financial policy was implemented in times of war, the greatest symbolic phenomenon that arises from these measures is devastating inflation, we will have to take into account that the large fiscal measures and the strong accumulation in This year’s source of cash can pave the way for primary adjustments in the economy.At this point, it is difficult to say what will happen specifically, but inflation, as in the past, is unlikely to occur.Popular sentiment has been mitigated through the pandemic and demand for uptake and investment is expected to stall.Meanwhile, the accumulation of the cash source is likely to be directed at most towards assets such as securities and real estate.Asset inflation is higher than inflation.In fact, the inventory market remains strong even when GDP contracts significantly.
The passing government will face more demanding situations in its macroeconomic control as COVID-19 disorders continue.Currently, the unemployment rate remains low by 2.8%, however, statistics show that in addition to those who have lost their jobs, there are a giant number of Other People with additional leave, who remain on the payroll because their employers get government subsidies to keep them in employment.There are considerations that many more companies will go bankrupt and that many more people will lose their jobs once those and other business monetary aid expire this fall.
The challenge is that, when this happens, it will be difficult to provide the same degrees of bills and aid to affected Americans and businesses because of strict budgetary constraints.self-help. Of course, loans will have to be granted interest-free and repaid over a long period of time (with a truly extensive era of deferred payments, so that beneficiaries can repay the cash through self-help efforts).The government also deserves to deal with those particular loans in calculating the capital/asset ratio of companies.
Another vital point is to reduce inflated budget expenditures over a long period of time. If public spending remains the peak, as in the surprise years after Lehman, additional fiscal consolidation will become incredibly complicated.take a narrow and complicated path.
Heizo Takenaka, professor emeritus at Keio University, served as Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy in the cabinet of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi from 2001 to 2005 and is a member of the government’s Industrial Competitiveness Council.
Since the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis, the Japan Times has provided free access to very important data on the effect of the new coronavirus, as well as practical data on how to deal with the pandemic.today so that we can continue to provide you with up-to-date and detailed data on Japan.
The Japan Times LTD. All rights are reserved.