An investigation into the November 2019 Iranian revolt shows important truths about the Islamic Republic’s inability to suppress the popular call for regime change.The government expected the revolt to happen if fuel prices increased, and that was fair.300% accumulated in an effort to prevent the opposition from becoming organized.Despite this, relatively small spontaneous uprisings in Iran’s cities shook the regime at its center and, for two days, the regime lost control of a number of cities and towns.
Large portions of Shiraz were released from the regime’s government for more than a day.Witnesses reported clashes between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and normal army forces.In Ghodes, protesters recaptured a base after it was abandoned by security forces.In Behbahan, citizens took up giant spaces after the killing of two citizens and troops recaptured Mahshahr only after heavy weapons opposed unarmed civilians with a policy of shooting and killing.Across the country, the regime took 3 days and the deaths of 1,500 people, according to Reuters, to regain control.
However, there were few demonstrations, if not in space.In total, the demonstrations took place in some 719 places, but the number of other people in those locations was, however, only between 50 and 500 other people.people from all over the country participated, representing about a quarter of the Iranian population.
Since then, the living situation in Iran has continued to deteriorate considerably.Moreover, maximum government establishments can no longer serve and the economy has collapsed.Exporters of locally produced raw fabrics will not return to the strong currency that banks desperately want to help.the Rial, which is in free fall. The resulting inflation and lack of economic opportunities mean that many other people can no longer even have the essentials across the country.
Moreover, the spread of COVID-19 in Iran is much worse than the Iranian government will admit, and its fitness services cannot or do not want to handle the crisis. The pandemic has spread to about three hundred cities and is not declining.millions of Iranians have the disease and more than 60,000 have died.While families lament their losses, the lack of credible or trustworthy government data in the pandemic has only made things worse.even more dangerous scenario.
Discontent with the regime has even extended to the military; the struggles between the IRGC and the army have intensified; Four correspondents at Iran’s state news firm were jailed for interviewing an army leader who proclaimed that Iran’s armed forces do not interfere with politics.suspicion among army troops and forced the IRGC leader to make a public declaration of friendship with the army to avoid open hostility between the two army institutions.
It is well known that many army infantrymen refused to join IRGC groups to forcibly suppress last November’s protests.In some cases, protesters shouted “Military Brother Help!” which undoubtedly led some soldiers to aim their rifles at unarmed civilians.obviously, the posters show that the IRGC itself was not monolithic in reaction to the national protests last fall; all IRGC groups did not take up arms when the regime issued its “shoot to kill” order.
Finally, a series of mysterious explosions in Iran have further undermined the regime and now raises the question of whether it is completely in control.In July, in the middle of the night, explosions hit nuclear enrichment facilities, missile sites, petrochemical centers, power plants and medical services.The cause of these explosions has not been revealed through the regime, but it would possibly come with the deterioration of infrastructure, national rebellion, foreign actors or all three.
For millions of Iranians, the existing crisis, the third in less than 3 years, has reached a boiling point.It is hard to believe what would happen if 1% of the population joined the next uprising.In November, the regime lost control of a main city for 48 hours and fought to involve 150,000 protesters.The 1% of Iran’s population represents more than 800,000 citizens, and there is no doubt that the number of Iranians has become more angry with their government, for multiple reasons, in the past nine months.But as Ceausescu’s Romania, Communist East Germany and the Tunisian revolution of 2011 have shown, the uprisings can seamlessly overthrow a repressive regime.Under unforeseen circumstances, the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall.The emergence of some other repressive government in Iran, the United States, and the foreign network will have to prepare for the future.
Kamal Azari is a member of the U.S. board and spokesperson for Iran’s Transitional Council, a new alliance of Iranians of other ethnicities and origins presented in 2019 as a voice elected by the Iranian government.
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