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Officials say cases are on the rise, with one doctor estimating there could soon be 65 million cases per week. But it turned out that China decided to go ahead.
By Chris Buckley
In December, China abandoned its draconian “Covid zero” policy, hit by a wave of infections and developing public anger against lockdowns. Six months later, covid cases are rising again, but this time the country is composed of minds to continue a general life while the government focuses on reviving economic growth.
Although other countries have long since established themselves in that pattern, it is a replacement for China. Until last year, its national leaders were in a position to shut down entire neighborhoods and districts, or even cities, in an effort to eliminate what were infrequently only small clusters of cases.
The Chinese fitness government has reported an increase in Covid cases since April, especially of new subvariants that are spreading around the world. Zhong Nanshan, a prominent doctor who was one of the first to brazenly verify in early 2020 that covid could easily spread among other people, estimated Monday that by the end of June, up to 65 million people per week could be infected with the virus. coronavirus in China. (That would be more than he estimated at 40 million infections per week at the end of May. China no longer publishes normal official national estimates of infections. )
By comparison, after “Covid zero” controls were put in place in December, new infections reached 37 million in one day in China at their peak, according to estimates cited by Bloomberg.
Although, as Dr. Zhong acknowledged, the speed of emerging infections is fraught with uncertainty, an uptick in cases was still likely, and many in China seem hardened to live with a background noise of covid infections and deaths.
“People have become accustomed to infections and see it as general in the post-covid era,” Lin Zixian, 36, who works for a tech company in Beijing, said in a phone interview. Face masks when you meet other people inside. But Lin said he and other family members have stopped masking in most public spaces, like many other people in China.
“A lot of my friends got inflamed last year and have become inflamed this year,” M said. Linen. ” Personally, I’m pretty calm about the virus and the pandemic. “
Authorities across China appear to be looking to prepare others for a surge in infections without reintroducing the strict controls that expired last year and had exhausted public patience. Since abandoning its strict restrictions on domestic travel, the government has turned its attention to boosting expansion and job creation. The unemployment rate of around 20% among urban youth would arguably seem more politically urgent than the accumulation of Covid numbers.
“After most people joined the last wave, the intensity disappeared,” said Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who is finishing an e-book on China’s handling of the pandemic.
He added that China was now treating Covid as a “class B” disease, not the category of maximum urgency, and authorities, while tracking the most recent accumulation of cases, “have also tried to reassure the public, saying the symptoms are mild. “
Health officials in Beijing have advised wearing masks on buses and subways, but it’s not mandatory and many passengers don’t, especially younger ones. While the recent spike in cases could put pressure on hospitals, many other people seem more willing to overlook the disease at home than go to fever clinics.
“Even if my son caught Covid, I would like to stay in the same room with him,” M said. Lin, the technician.
For many younger patients, the infection can mean a week or so with fever and other symptoms. In recent weeks, other people have recorded their symptoms on social media, in a tone of biting resignation.
More concerning are the elderly, many of whom have not had covid and who may not have won a full round of vaccinations. Up to three-quarters of Chinese who became inflamed in the recent surge did not inflame in the first wave, Dr. Zhang said. Wenhong, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases at Shanghai’s Huashan Hospital and a leading voice in China’s response to Covid, in a recent interview with Chinese media.
However, the resurgence of cases “is not expected to have a massive impact overall on economic activity and life,” Dr. Zhang said, according to Yicai, a Chinese trade newspaper. “We will have to not go too far in taking pandemic prevention measures in response. “
Dong-yan Jin, a virology professor at the University of Hong Kong who has been following China’s reaction to covid, agreed that many of those who became inflamed recently were likely elderly or physically frail people, others who were exposed to the “tsunami. “of infections expired last year.
“The elderly were well protected during the tsunami period, as their families and caregivers did their best to protect them,” Professor Jin said. “But now the dangers for them are high, because other people are less alert. “
China increases vaccination rates, especially among the elderly; upgrade your homemade vaccine to a greater shield against new variants; enable the advent of evolved vaccines worldwide; and making antiviral drugs less expensive and more available to covid patients, Professor Jin said.
“Most other people have said from their own experience that covid is not a monster and it’s not that scary, and that’s positive,” he said. “But it’s not true that covid is gone and will never come back, so The message also wants to be transparent to the public. “
Amy Chang Chien contributed to the report.
Chris Buckley is The Times’ chief correspondent in China, where he has lived for more than 30 years after growing up in Sydney, Australia. Before joining The Times in 2012, he was Reuters. @ChuBailiang Beijing-based correspondent
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