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A slight increase in hospitalizations and deaths persists, but the numbers are low and new vaccines are coming.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
Jill Biden, the first lady, tested positive for Covid-19 on Monday. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced the state will send masks and immediate testing to school districts that request them. They have already closed schools in Kentucky and Texas, due to widespread respiratory ailments among academics and staff.
The coronavirus is in the air. Literally.
A stable number of cases since July and reports of worrisome new variants have fueled concerns that the virus is set to return this fall and winter. But in interviews, experts are confident that the country will not be happy to return to the nightmare scenarios of years past.
There is no evidence that any of the circulating variants cause more severe illness or evade immunity enough to render vaccines ineffective. And while hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week after week, the numbers remain low, said Gigi Gronvall, a biosecurity expert at Johns Hopkins. Health Security Center.
“These increases are more statistically alarming than they are,” Dr. Gronvall said.
Covid hospital admissions were up about 16% in the week ending August 26 from last week, but the 17,400 new admissions were less than a fraction of the figure for the same time last year, and about a fifth of the 2021 figure.
Covid deaths were up almost 18% compared to last week, but the figures remained low, averaging just over six hundred deaths per week in August, up from around 3,000 per week at the end of August 2022 and around 14,000 per week. week at the end of August 2021.
“What I think we’re seeing is the virus continuing to evolve and then leading to waves of infection, usually mild,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, leader of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical. Boston.
For now, the numbers recommend that Americans tailor their habit to their own peril, some experts say.
Those who are most vulnerable to Covid (the elderly, pregnant women and others with weakened immune systems) would perhaps do well to take the greatest precautions, such as wearing a mask as much as possible or all the time and avoiding crowded indoor spaces.
People at reduced risk may need to take precautions in certain circumstances, especially if they are at risk of transmitting the virus to more vulnerable people. Stay with the best of Covid shots, Dr. Gronvall said, and get Paxlovid, the antiviral treatment. if you are inflamed and qualify.
Although most scientists are cautiously optimistic, it is difficult to wait for what will happen in the coming months due to two factors: vaccines and variants.
Biden’s leadership has said that instead of periodic boosters, Americans now expect to receive a single Covid vaccine each fall, similar to the annual flu vaccine. This year’s Covid vaccines may be available next week, when advisors The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to review knowledge and factor recommendations for their use.
(Regulators in the European Union and Britain have already approved updated vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech for use in any child 6 months of age or older. )
The vaccines will be available to up to Americans through personal insurers and through a new federal program for the uninsured. But it’s unclear how many Americans will opt for vaccination. As of May 2023, less than a share of adults 65 and older, and about one in five U. S. adults overall, had opted for the proposed bivalent recall last fall.
The updated vaccines target XBB. 1. 5, a variant of the virus that was dominant earlier this year, when federal officials had to agree on a formulation, but this variant has since been replaced by several relatives.
Limited surveillance suggests that the most common variant is now EG. 5, nicknamed Eris, which accounts for about 22% of cases. EG. 5 is also widely circulated in many European countries, in addition to Britain and Asia. It would possibly be more transmissible than XBB. 1. 5 and can bypass the body’s immune defenses, albeit only partially.
“That’s why we don’t see EG. 5 spreading at breakneck speed around the world,” said Yunlong Cao, a researcher at Peking University who analyzed the variant.
EG. 5 and some other variant of the virus, FL. 1. 5. 1, which accounts for about 15% of cases in the United States, carry a genetic mutation that can not only evade the immune system, but also bind to humans more heavily. Cells.
But there’s nothing unforeseen or alarming about the coronavirus getting new mutations, said Andrew Read, an evolutionary microbiologist at Pennsylvania State University.
“When a mutation confers a new and attractive trick that has an advantage, it will appear so in many other places,” Dr. Read said. “Everything we’re seeing is consistent with how the virus is thought to evolve in a scenario where a new virus has entered a new host population. “
However, the first variant that caused some consternation among scientists was BA. 2. 86, nicknamed Pirola.
“It caught people’s attention because it gave the impression of being in 10 countries and comprises more than 30 mutations in the spike protein,” Dr. Barouch said. “So there was a great fear that this was a sea change towards more antibody evasion. “
But recent data from several teams, including one led by Dr. Barouch, has allayed those fears. Studies have shown that BA. 2. 86 is not immune to infection or vaccination.
And the prevalence of BA. 2. 86 is so low that, so far, it appears slightly in the CDC. catalogo. variantes spreading the country. However, “I think we still want to remain vigilant, as BA. 2. 86 will most likely continue to evolve,” Dr. Barouch said.
Each mutation “should be evaluated vigorously and rigorously and as temporarily as possible,” he said.
Apoorva Mandavilli is a journalist specializing in science and global health. He was part of the team that won the 2021 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for its pandemic policy. Learn More about Apoorva Mandavilli
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