More than 220,000 Tibetans over the age of 60 could die in the existing Covid-19 outbreak in China, according to an estimate by the International Campaign on Tibet (ICT) on demographic literacy and fitness studies.
A new ICT report uses studies from Japan and Brazil, such as on-the-ground testimonies from Tibetans and Chinese census data, to estimate the death toll in Tibet, which China omits from its official Covid report.
While several models map the number of covid infections and deaths in China since it abandoned its “zero covid” strategy on December 7, 2022, this is the first known to estimate deaths in Tibet.
The ICT report also tells first-hand of Tibetans who witnessed an unprecedented number of corpses taken to heavenly burial sites and cremation sites in their home countries.
One Tibetan said, “There is a shortage of vultures to dispose of the bodies. “
“The abrupt end of the zero covid policy has had disastrous effects on Tibet, but China’s lack of transparency and access, as well as its discriminatory remedy against Tibetans, has made it difficult to estimate the full extent of the horrors there,” ICT told me.
“Tibetans are living a nightmare and facing a death toll. The Chinese government’s mishandling of this crisis is endangering lives not only in Tibet, but also in China and around the world.
The ICT report uses knowledge from the 2020 Chinese census as a reference and arrives at its estimates through reasoning, logical deduction and extrapolations from available analytical studies.
According to the census, there are 692,911 Tibetans over the age of 60, of whom 82,672 are older.
A study in Japan and the popularity of China’s National Health Commission show that the risk of death is for other people over the age of 80.
In addition, studies in Brazil show that the efficacy of two doses of Chinese vaccines is very low for other people in this age group. The effectiveness of the vaccine decreases over time.
According to sources, Tibetan elders have been excluded from a third-dose vaccination crusade that began last year.
Until an existing and very large study on the effectiveness of Chinese vaccines is independently conducted, studies conducted in Brazil are the indicator to estimate the number of deaths of ancient Tibetans.
Therefore, ICT estimates that 221,218 Tibetans over the age of 60 may die in the existing Covid crisis in Tibet. If the case fatality rate of the existing Covid outbreak is taken into account, 45,469 Tibetans over the age of 80 may die.
While those estimates are conservative, a true number of covid deaths in Tibet cannot be decided without true transparency from the Chinese government.
The ICT report also includes anecdotal and visual evidence showing that many bodies are continuously taken to heavenly burial sites in Tibet. Most of the dead are ancient Tibetans.
Sources in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, informed ICT that the vast majority of Lhasa’s population is infected with Covid and the death toll is increasing every day.
A large number of covid deaths have also been reported in Tibetan areas outside the officially designated “Tibet Autonomous Region”, which covers only a part of Tibet.
In a verbal exchange on social media that was heard via ICT, a Tibetan suggested to other members of the network not to relax with covid, saying that many corpses were being taken to a classic burial near Lhasa.
“On January 2, there were about a hundred corpses,” the Tibetan said. “This is unprecedented and not normal. “
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