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COVID-19 cases may return to New York City, according to new wastewater data.
Nearly all of the city’s 14 wastewater treatment plants are lately in the “high” detection point category, which likely means 50 or more instances consistent with 100,000 residents, according to the New York State Wastewater Monitoring Network dashboard, which was updated Friday.
In addition, two-week trend data shows that three of the factories see a minimum in virus detection.
The number of reported cases has not increased. But fewer people are getting tested than at the beginning of the pandemic, so the number of cases is a less reliable indicator of the spread of COVID-19.
Health experts told ABC News that wastewater tracking is a smart early detection tool to monitor potential long-term increases, but it’s too early for what that means.
“Wastewater knowledge can be a very useful indicator of what’s going on,” said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and innovation leader at Boston Children’s Hospital and an ABC News contributor. “Now, it’s an indication of the point of the virus that other people may be missing, but it’s not 100% similar to the number of ailments other people have. “
He continued: “Because with the significant amount of immunity to past infections, from vaccination, there can be network transmission, but it can be asymptomatic and what the sewage can’t tell you is the severity of the network cases. “
Wastewater monitoring checks for the virus in sewage, from families and buildings, than in human feces.
Since at least a portion of COVID-19 patients release genetic curtains of the virus, or viral RNA, in their feces, the same tests that can detect if someone is positive can also stumble upon the virus in wastewater samples.
When other people shed the virus in their feces, they are in the early stages of infection, which means that virus levels in sewage samples will occur before the number of cases increases.
Reported COVID-19 cases have remained robust since mid-April at around 270 cases over a seven-day moving average, according to data from the city’s Ministry of Health and Mental Hygiene. Hospitalizations and deaths also remained strong.
“Wastewater knowledge is Array. . . impartial,” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, told ABC News. The absolute number is arguably debatable, this trend is still something we pay attention to. “
However, he warned against panic and said that the fact that there are spaces in the town in the “high” category does not mean that a push is imminent.
While the end of mitigation measures, such as masking and some decline in immunity, could play a role if cases rise, Chin-Hong said the U. S. will be able to increase its immunity. The U. S. economy is in a much better position than in previous years.
“Previously, we had to be subject to the vagaries of the virus, but now we have weapons to fight,” he said. merit of the first antivirals taken early in the disease, such as Paxlovid, remdesivir and molnupiravir. “
Experts said it’s natural for wastewater data to vary and not remain low all the time. However, because everyone has a different tolerance for threats, data can help other people if they need to change their behavior.
“Knowing that circulating viruses can inform other people about the types of activities you should engage in,” Brownstein said. “Just as you bring an umbrella for rain, you can replace your habit if you know viruses are circulating. This is no explanation as to why panic. But with more data, other people can make their own decisions. “
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