The analysis shows that only around 15% of deaths in mid-July were due to Covid, and this figure is likely insufficient coverage.
Covid-19 is the leading cause of death in New Zealand for the first time in July, surpassing strokes and even tying with ischemic centre disease as the country’s number one killer.
Michael Baker, an epidemiologist and professor of public health, said that over a period from July to August, covid caused at least as many deaths as the core disease.
Baker said that in mid-July, covid deaths accounted for only about 15% of deaths overall, referring to the New Zealand Herald’s data research that showed covid deaths to overall deaths in July. Baker said those deaths were likely mild underinsurance, as other people would have died of covid-19 without getting tested.
Baker said the toll would position Covid as “at least six times higher, it may be only 10 times higher than the road toll. “If the current trajectory of the pandemic continues, annual Covid deaths would be about five times higher than influenza deaths – the disease that was once used as a “reference” for Covid 19. Heart disease accounts for about 15% of deaths in New Zealand and strokes about 8%.
“Mortality in this wave has reached a new peak in New Zealand,” Baker said. “[Objective] at a time when we are witnessing an increase in mortality, we have seen, apparently, that public interest and fear fall to a low point: and that seems paradoxical to me. Of course, we all need the pandemic to end, but we can’t need it. “
On Monday, the Ministry of Health reported that 1,638 deaths were attributable to Covid-19 since the beginning of the epidemic. These are deaths in which Covid is the underlying cause of death or contributes to death.
The ministry reported 4,006 active cases of covid-19 and 654 hospitalizations. Overall, covid cases in New Zealand are trending downward: the seven-day moving average of the number of cases 5,288, up from 6,990 last Monday. 10 among the thirteen daily Covid-related deaths in the latest update.
Baker said that with Covid cases dropping since a spike in infections in July, he wouldn’t expect it to remain the top cause of death of the year, but it would likely be in the two or three most sensitive.
“Right now, excess mortality in New Zealand is about 10% higher than normal, which corresponds to something on the order of 3,000 deaths per year due to COVID-19,” he said. “It’s not at that point [of central disease], yet it’s above strokes and all primary cancers. “
If this continues, he said, “it would have a measurable effect on life expectancy in New Zealand. “