SINGAPORE – The number of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) fell sharply last week, a sure sign that the existing wave has subsided and the number of infections remains relatively high.
“We can be confident that this wave of Covid-19 has run its course as the numbers get closer to baseline values,” said Professor Dale Fisher, senior infectious disease representative at National University Hospital.
The 496 patients hospitalized the week of Dec. 24-30 are a sharp reduction from the 864 admitted last week. Similarly, the other thirteen people who required comprehensive care in the last week of December are 10 fewer than last week’s 23.
The Covid-19 wave had peaked in the week of Dec 10 to Dec 16, with an estimated 58,300 people infected. In that week, 965 people were admitted to hospitals, with 32 patients sent to ICUs.
Dr Asok Kurup, an infectious disease specialist in private practice, warned that other people returning from holiday may simply accumulate infections, but Professor Alex Cook, associate dean of studies at the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health. . , disagreed.
He said the recent wave “means there is sufficient immunity in the population as a whole such that the current strain cannot sustain itself”.
“So, even if tourists were to come back sick, they probably wouldn’t cause another wave unless they brought in new variants that can evade the patterns of immunity that we have lately,” he added.
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The number of people who want to be hospitalized or require intensive care is a more reliable indicator of the severity of the infection wave. This is because the disease is endemic, so there is no need to report, so the infection figures only reflect those from medical care.
Prof Fisher said such waves can be expected in the long term “as our immunity wanes and the virus continues to evolve with small mutations”. But it’s too early to say whether the infections will be seasonal, as is the case with the flu.
The Ministry of Health began providing daily updates on Covid-19 infections from December 19, when the number of infections was high. It provided a seven-day moving average based on five days of data, as it came basically from polyclinics, which were closed. on weekends.
But the accuracy of those figures affected the two public holidays (Christmas and New Year’s), as they resulted in just four days of data, rather than the same old five, spread over a seven-day period.
That figure currently stands at 2,600 infections a day, from the peak of 7,870 on Dec 12.
Professor Cook said: “While it is difficult to interpret the knowledge of the case due to the bank holidays of the last two weeks and the effect they would possibly have had on number one care visits, the fact that hospitalizations and hospitalization numbers UCI have very obviously fallen the peak wave.
“It is very reassuring that the country has been able to cope with this wave thanks to its undeniable social duty and our immunity point. “
The wave has caused some older children aged 11 and younger to be hospitalized with Covid-19, but none under intensive care.
Prof Fisher said: “Severe disease will threaten other vulnerable people, namely those who have not been vaccinated in the last six to 12 months. It’s notable that many of the other people who want to be admitted are still unvaccinated seniors. “. . . “
According to MOH, four in five people here have the minimum protection of three mRNA or four traditional vaccinations.
The ministry had previously said that even other people with minimal coverage and whose last Covid-19 vaccination was more than a year ago are almost twice as likely to need hospital care as someone who received a booster dose in the past 12 months.
In November, Covid-19 killed another 21 people here. This brings the total number of Covid-19 deaths in the first 11 months of 2023 to 247. One of the deaths is a child under the age of 12.
This article was first published in The Straits Times. Permission required for reproduction.