Amid an avalanche of government spending, the global economic recession triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will not be as severe as originally feared, IMF leader Kristalina Georgieva said, but warned that the crisis is far from over.
Nigerian states, however, recorded a 26. 5% drop in revenue in the 2020 quarter, Q2 2020, in the context of the adverse coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19).
In a speech leading up to the IMF and World Bank fall meetings next week, when the IMF must provide its updated forecasts, Georgieva said: “The scenario today is less serious, allowing for a small upward review of our global forecasts by 2020. “‘
In June, the Washington-based crisis lender forecast a contraction of nearly 5% of global GDP, but the effects of the second and third quarters were greater than expected.
Meanwhile, the IMF had reversed its projection of Nigeria’s GDP from -5. 4% to -3. 4% by 2020, while the World Bank had reverted its target to -3. 2% against an expansion rate of 2. 1%.
Georgieva credited the “extraordinary political measures that have set ground on the world economy,” which amounted to $12 trillion in taxes on families and businesses.
But he warned governments to withdraw the aid they have provided prematurely, as the outlook for next year is combined and full of uncertainty and risk.
“Calamity from over”
After more than a million deaths, “this calamity is over. All countries now face what I would call “the long rise,” a complicated rise that will be long, asymmetrical and uncertain,” Georgieva said.
In the United States and Europe, the recession, though painful, was not as severe as economists feared, and China is experiencing a “faster-than-expected recovery. “
But the news is bad: “In low-income countries, the shocks are so deep that we run the threat of a ‘lost generation,'” he said.
“There are also serious economic consequences now due to job losses, bankruptcies and disruption of education. “
Low-income countries have not had the resources to spend so much on jobs and businesses, and they will also want help paying off their debt, increasing through increased subsidies and debt restructuring.
She compared the crisis to World War II, when leaders “forged a bigger world at the worst time imaginable,” and called on governments to continue to help staff for as long as necessary, while spending to create a larger and fairer economic system. .
“Where the pandemic persists, it is essential to maintain the lifeguards of the economy, companies and workers,” he said. “Cut the life jackets too early and the long climb turns into a steep fall. “
But Georgieva said: “We cannot simply rebuild the old economy, with its low growth, low productivity, maximum inequality and worsening climate crisis,” and called for more spending on green jobs that can generate more jobs.
“This will require a stimulus for the creation of tasks, especially in green investments, and a cushioning of the effect on workers,” he said. “Safeguarding social spending will be essential for a fair transition to new tasks. “
He referred to an IMF report released Monday that it appears that an increase in spending of 1% of GDP could create 33 million new jobs.
State IGR accident
Meanwhile, Nigerian states recorded a 26. 5% drop in revenue in the 2020 quarter, Q2 2020, in the context of the adverse effects of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19).
This also led to an 11. 7% minimise in the first part of the functionality of the internally generated utility (IGR) of the 36 states of the federation and the territory of the federal capital, FCT, Abuja, through 11. 7% to 612. 9 billion nairas, for 693. 9 billion recorded in the corresponding era of 2019, S1’19.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which gave IGR figures in its report entitled “Country revenue generated at the state point for the first part of 2020,” said the 36-state IGR and the CTF fell to 259. 73 billion. (Q2) quarter of 353. 140 million naras in the first quarter of 2020.
The report also showed that the IGR recorded through the states in the consistent year represents only 14. 33 consistent with the percent of the total earnings (26. 18 billion nairas) to be held for states, while the gain from FAAC’s contribution to 23. 24 billion naras represents 85. 67 consistent with the percent of total turnover. at S1’20.
Lagos state recorded UGRis of 204. 5 billion naras, or 33. 37% of the total IGR figure, followed by Rivers state with 64. 58 billion naras, representing 10. 54% of total IGR.
FCT Abuja, Delta State and Ogun with 35. 2 billion nars or 5. 74%, 30. 8 billion nars or 5. 03% and 28. 6 billion naras, respectively, representing 3. 86% of total IGR.
Oyo, Kano, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna and Edo occupied the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth, generating N17. 77 billion (2. 90%), N17. 51 billion (2. 86%), N16. 21 billion (2. 65%), 14. 55 billion (2. 37%) N14. 01 billion, representing 2. 29% of the IGR, respectively.
On the other hand, Jigawa generated the lowest IGR of N3 billion, followed by Ekiti with N3. 2 billion, Adamawa with N3. 75 billion and Gombe with N3. 78 billion.
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