Covid-19 – Post-lock-closing scenarios in Italy
The infection was reduced by up to 70% on May 1. With the developed style, scenarios can be set for long-term containment measures.
Milan, 26 August 2020 – As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic still plagues most countries around the world and containment measures are being implemented around the world, a debate is emerging about whether and, just in case, how these measures can be partially mitigated and, just in case. and when. This discussion requires appropriate models that consult decision makers through choice movements through scenarios of the related trajectories of the epidemic. This is the subject of the studies published in the journal Nature Communications through a team of Italian scientists from the Universitat Ca’Foscari (Venice), Politecnico di Milano (Milan), the Universita di Padova (Padoue) and the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Lausanne, Switzerland).
The research is based on a spatially particular style of the spread of COVID-19 in Italy (first published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA through the team in April), adding community-to-community mobility, progressive mobility restrictions. and social estrangement. The baseline style was updated by estimating parameters of the number of cases hospitalized daily in the 107 Italian provinces from 24 February to 1 May.
The researchers generated scenarios of the dynamics of the Italian infection as a result of the massive effect of lifting the lock, which began on May 4. They wondered how rest patterns of past containment measures can also be only residual epidemic paths. The response to this query is not trivial, as other activities may have resumed at other times. In addition, acquired awareness can have other lasting effects on social behaviour, regardless of the measures imposed, and respect for the proper use of non-public protective devices (such as masks) may disappear over time.
Using epidemiological knowledge until June 17, the researchers provided an ex post assessment of the situations explored comparing them to the actual space-time progression of the epidemic. The actual replacement in the general transmission was followed through the start of the projected epidemic curve using the transmission rate that achieved the lock (called the baseline situation). The vast majority of Italian regions approached the reference situation for the period of one and a half months.
Scientists then sought to mitigate the most likely accumulation of exposure, specifically by estimating enough interventions from remote cases that would prevent it from rebounding in epidemics. An effort capable of isolating approximately 5.5% of exposed and highly infectious Americans on a daily basis is mandatory to maintain the epidemic curve in the reduction baseline trajectory.
References
The geography of COVID-19 has for Italy and its implications for the easing of containment measures. Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Stefano Miccoli, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto and Andrea Rinaldo. Nature Communications, 26 August 2020. DOI: 10.1038 / s41467-020-18050-2
Propagation and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: emergency containment measures. Marino Gatto, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Stefano Miccoli, Luca Carraro, Renato Casagrandi and Andrea Rinaldo. PNAS, 23 April 2020. DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.2004978117
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