China is very likely to see an explosion of COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks, experts say, as the country lifts its long-standing and highly unpopular zero-COVID-19 policy.
China is incredibly vulnerable right now because its population, especially the elderly, who are most likely to suffer from serious illness, is unvaccinated, has no herbal immunity against infections, and has a limited number of treatments.
Experts expect many millions of infections and up to 1. 5 to 2 million deaths.
“I think China will explode in the next six to 12 weeks,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in a webinar Thursday. cliff, we’re going to see them fall from a 1,000-foot cliff. “
A furious outbreak in China may simply be bad news for controlling the virus in the U. S. He and other experts said, because travelers will arrive in poor health and the chances of mutation accumulate whenever a virus infects many people.
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Every time a virus gets out of control, especially in a population as large as China’s, there’s a smart chance that new variants will develop, said Dr. Jeremy Luban, a virus expert at UMass Chan School of Medicine.
The variants circulating lately in China seem to be the most prevalent here, adding the subvariants omicron BA. 5 and BQ. 1.
“There’s no specific explanation for why to worry, other than that many infections are bad for the evolution of new things that we can’t predict,” Luban said Wednesday on a media call from the Massachusetts Pathogen Preparedness Consortium. controlled in China, better. “
The United States is painstakingly tracking infections and variants in travelers, sewage and other means, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said Thursday at a news conference.
“If new variants emerge, I’m sure we’ll be able to do it,” he said.
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One style predicts China will see a hundred million symptomatic cases, five million hospital admissions and up to 1. 6 million deaths from COVID-19 alone, not to mention the strain on the fitness formula that will lead to even more tragedies, said Jennifer Bouey, a RAND epidemiologist.
She said there aren’t enough extensive care sets in the country to cater to this call point and hopes the fitness formula will be overwhelmed. Blood banks are already experiencing a shortage of donations, he said.
If mainland China had the same death rate as a Hong Kong outbreak in February and March, more than 2 million Chinese would have to die in the coming months, said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. in verbal exchange with Luban.
Following public outcry, the Chinese government lifted its COVID-19 0 restrictions on December 1.
Bouey said he had noticed little evidence that the Chinese government was in a position to suddenly lift its restrictions. A retirement crusade this summer would have made a big difference, as well as a significant advance purchase of antiviral treatments.
“We see the government in recent days talking about recalls and antivirals,” he said.
Heath said changing course now “will fuel more mistrust and skepticism among other Chinese people who don’t know the extent to which the government is telling the truth. “
He and Bouey said they don’t think the government is as it should be reporting COVID-19 cases right now. Official reports imply that infections are declining, while social media, empty streets and shops, medicine shortages and long lines at hospitals tell each other. history.
Still, Hanage predicts that China will have fewer capita-consistent deaths than the U. S. The U. S. government has an outbreak delayed until vaccines arrive. “China has a very, very complicated road ahead in the coming months, don’t get me wrong, however, in the absence of vaccination, it would be much, much worse. “
Contact Karen Weintraub at kweintraub@usatoday. com.
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