Since mid-June, 4 countries – the United States, Brazil, Mexico and India – have experienced the number of COVID-19 deaths worldwide, and most likely still have multi-month pandemic-related mortality rates. Come here.
This is the prediction of a first-line epidemiologist to perceive the overall effect of COVID-19 in one of two seminars that explore the topic at the American Thoracic Society’s virtual conference.
David W. Dowdy, MD, of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Health in Baltimore, said instance distribution has been robust in recent months in the Americas and India, which now account for two-thirds of all instances and deaths worldwide.
“Less than 5% of the world’s population has been infected, so it’s not that we’re going to succeed at some point of collective immunity or anything like that,” he said. “We are still witnessing the initial expansion of this pandemic, and there is no evidence that anything will be drastically replaced in the Americas or India over the coming months.”
Dowdy noted that deaths from the disease increased from an overall average of around 400, consistent with the day in mid-March, to 4,000 to 7,000, consistent with the day in the following months, with most deaths now occurring in the United States, Brazil, and India.
As of August 11, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center reported that COVID-19 instances had totaled 20 million worldwide, with more than 738,000 deaths reported.
The total number of deaths in the United States averages about 1000 per day, with a total of 164545 COVID-19 deaths reported since the start of the pandemic.
Dowdy claimed that deaths due to COVID-19 can be considered as a series of geographic waves, the epicenter of China in January and February, followed by Iran, South Korea and Italy during a brief era in early March, followed by Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Great Britain and Sweden) during the remainder of March and early May, the United States in April and Latin America from May to July.
He noted that the number of deaths shown due to COVID-19 peaked in mid-April at approximately 6700 deaths consistent with the day, with a maximum number of deaths in Europe and the United States.
Deaths in Europe have declined since this peak, offset by higher mortality in the Americas and India.
Since mid-June, Brazil and India have noticed increases, but in a different way the global scenario has remained “remarkably stable,” Dowdy said.
Success stories show that spreading is inevitable
To date, countries such as South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand have controlled it to prevent the significant spread of COVID-19 and disease death.
Dowdy said those good luck stories show that the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 is inevitable and that coordinated efforts through government and fitness officials can have a major impact.
He noted that South Korea was one of the first countries to revel in a primary outbreak of COVID-19, with around 900 new cases consistent with the day recorded in mid-March, fewer than 60 cases a day have been reported since mid-March. It’s April.
Vietnam also reported only 18 cases between mid-June and mid-July, and New Zealand had reported fewer than 150 cases since mid-April, or more than a hundred days without a prolonged network until this week.
“In the case of South Korea and Vietnam, it’s not because there isn’t a massive population density,” Dowdy said. “And in Vietnam, there are many vulnerable populations. But these countries, either through the efforts of their own governments to manage high-risk populations or, in some cases, through possibility, have controlled to control this epidemic. It illustrates that COVID-19 does not inevitably spread through populations and that it is imaginable to keep this viral disease at a very low level.”
He said the low rates of infection are due to a lack of evidence.
Anatomy of an epidemic
In a separate presentation, lung and infectious diseases specialist Tobias Welte, of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hanover in Germany and beyond president of the European Society of Breathing, described the beginnings of COVID-19 in Western Europe.
He said That Western Europe had its first wave of infection in February and early March, and that the first infections appeared to appear in Milan, Italy, probably due to an increase in the city of Wuhan and other parts of China in early January in preparation for the entire World Famous Milan Fashion Week.
“Italy has a very close relationship with China regarding the fashion industry,” Welte said. Although the first case shown in Italy occurred last February, he said the disease arrived in Milan in early January.
“For the first 7 to 8 weeks, the coronavirus spread to Italy any diagnosis or protective measure,” he said, adding that this disease detected during a long era explains how the virus spread so temporarily in the community.
A key occasion in mid-February would probably have implemented an adjustment to the already on fire, Welte warned: a foreign Champions League football match in Milan that attracted 40,000 fans. “This probably has a widespread occasion,” he said.
According to press reports, about a third of Bergamo’s Italian population attended the match, as well as several thousand Spanish club enthusiasts who visited Valencia. Bergamo is the main focus of the Italian epidemic in March.
Welte said that it is now believed that many or even a thousand more people lit up the match, adding up a third of the players from the Valencia team. Thousands more reportedly lit up in Spain with a birthday party of Valencia’s victory that attracted a million more people.
Germany, on the other hand, verified its first cases until mid-March, approximately 8 weeks after Italy saw the first. The first cases were attributed to Germans who had visited ski resorts in Italy and Austria.
The two-month respite gave Germany and other European countries time to prepare for the upcoming epidemic of Italy and Spain, Welte said.
Dealing with COVID in Africa
Pediatric pneumologist Refiloe Masekela of Queen Mary University in London and the Pan African Thorax Society discussed the difficult situations of COVID-19 identification and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.
Africa’s population has far fewer people older than North America and Europe, but the burden of tuberculosis, HIV and malnutrition is much higher. Air pollutant grades also tend to be higher and multigenerational life is common.
The first case on the African continent reported in Egypt in mid-February; Two weeks later, it was detected in sub-Saharan Africa.
To date, African countries have reported cases of COVID-19.
As is the case in South America, gaining quality knowledge of the region is a major challenge, Masekela said.
He said the economic difficulties associated with the pandemic have been worse than those of many Africans, and that the collateral damage to public fitness programmes on malnutrition, vaccines, malaria and HIV is wonderful.
“We have noticed a decrease in the number of other people who accept vaccines and are at risk of a momentary outbreak after COVID of other infectious diseases,” he said.
Alex van den Heever of the University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, reported on the COVID-19 party in South Africa.
South Africa instituted a widespread blockade at the end of 23 March when no COVID-19 cases were reported, however cases began to escalate in May when the economy began to reopen and rose again in June and July, when some schools, though not all, reopened. .
“The question is, why don’t we take strong action against the epidemic with the initial closure?” said van den Heever. “This is a problem and may have to do with the nature of our communities.”
He noted that communities tend to be densely populated, and many others rely on mass-shipping taxis, which can carry up to a dozen passengers at a time.
“In those environments, the opportunities for super-transmission are quite important,” he said. “We have not been able to enclose many of these densely populated casual settlements in open areas. This potentially explains why we are now witnessing this epidemic that shouldn’t be there.”
He added that there had been an asymmetrical reaction to COVID-19 peaks in South African provinces and that the locks would possibly have been brought too soon, causing devastating damage to the economy without absolutely suppressing the virus.
The experiment “suggests it would have been better to have a much more [early] blockage,” he said.
Speakers reported any relevant discussions with the industry similar to their presentations.
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