An infectious disease researcher says COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador are rising again, and that comes at a time when the province shows the full picture when it comes to releasing statistics.
Tara Moriarty, a researcher and professor at the University of Toronto, told CBC News that COVID-19 cases are up across the country heading into the holiday season. And while Newfoundland and Labrador is in a slightly better situation, she said, her research indicates that about one in every 37 residents are infected by COVID-19.
“There are about 9,000 infections per week, or about 1,300 per day,” Moriarty said Wednesday. “We’re forecasting about 17% excess mortality in Newfoundland and Labrador similar to COVID, or about 19 deaths per week. “
Excess mortality from COVID-19, measured through Statistics Canada, is calculated by estimating the number of cases in a province using methods such as wastewater investigation and test positivity rate.
Using existing knowledge and beyond about excess mortality (the rate at which other people die prematurely a week), researchers can estimate how many of those deaths are due to COVID-19.
Data from the Public Health Agency of Canada suggests that 16. 3 per cent of Newfoundland and Labrador’s population has been fully vaccinated with the latest vaccines.
“We are seeing an immediate increase in excess mortality in rapidly reporting Canadian provinces, plus Newfoundland and Labrador, since about July 1,” Moriarty said.
“People are so under-vaccinated that they suffer more serious consequences if they get infected. Now I’m deeply worried. “
Moriarty said the data also suggests the prevalence of long COVID has increased across the country, and that it’s especially prevalent in people who have been infected multiple times.
“We expected some people would recover. But there’s been so many infections in the last year or two years in Canada, that actually what we see is that the estimated prevalence of long COVID in the Canadian population has increased,” she said.
As the province follows Health Canada’s lead on how to treat people with long COVID, Moriarty also raised concerns about how virus statistics are reported.
The Ministry of Health has recently updated its respiratory virus dashboard every Friday, which includes statistics on cases of COVID-19, flu and other viruses such as RSV. Data that is not made public is still collected and used in public fitness interventions, the medical leader said. Dr. Janice Fitzgerald, fitness officer, told CBC News in November.
“Part of the challenge probably comes from the fact that Newfoundland and Labrador don’t update their numbers, so the overall numbers reported are much lower than they actually are,” he said.
“That’s how it’s been from the beginning in Newfoundland and Labrador. “
CBC News asked the Ministry of Health for comment on Moriarty’s concerns. He responded with an email from branch spokesperson Laura Thomas.
The statement said the Canadian Institute of Health Information, which Moriarty used in her research, isn’t the same data source the province uses in its COVID-19 reporting.
“The cases compiled for the CIHI report would possibly or would not require attention due to COVID-19. Therefore, CIHI’s statistics are not intended to provide an estimate of the burden of severe COVID-19 cases between provinces and territories, but to reflect suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 who are hospitalized,” the statement reads.
“As a component of general and systematic infectious disease surveillance, Public Health monitors and reports hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths, in which laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 is a number one factor or contributor. “
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Journalist
Alex Kennedy is a digital reporter with CBC Newfoundland and Labrador based in Corner Brook. He previously worked with CBC N.L. in St. John’s, and has a particular interest in stories about sports and interesting people.
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