Coronavirus had a sudden and dramatic negative effect on electricity demand, which fell to 20% in the UK during the blocking period, with similar decreases in Europe. The destruction of the force required through the coronavirus has given us a long-term look when variable renewable force (VRE: wind and solar) represents a higher proportion of the force supply. At existing levels, the strength formula does not have the flexibility to cope with this variability: the higher the percentage of VRE in a formula, the greater the challenge.
Will Covid-19 be a wake-up call to put Europe on the right path for its new foot structure of flexibility? Wood Mackenzie’s Rory McCarthy and Victor Laurent talk about situations that require flexibility and face the UK, an island that has no interconnection and needs flexibility for its opposing European numbers on the continent.
Flexible resource outlook for major European markets
Markets have been built on the assumption that at the existing point of renewable energy, i.e. VRE, there is sufficient flexibility in the system. The political objective has been to deploy cheap wind and solar energy. Little attention is paid to the stability of the grid or to the assurance that it has renewable energy. There is also an overcapacity, from coal to pump storage, which can offer varying degrees of flexibility. These are unrecoverable investments, which can be difficult to move.
The flexibility of the electricity formula is essential as our electricity networks are transferred to renewable energy. VRE grades that generate up to 0 net emission targets, threatening network stability. Wood Mackenzie expects the composition of the flexibility assets of the electricity formula in the five main European markets (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom [GB]) to increase from 122 GW by 2020 to 205 GW until 2030 and 265 GW until 2040. peak fuel, pump garage, interconnections and electric garage. Energy garage is set up as the winning asset in terms of annual implementation growth.
However, the marketplaceplace framework is not yet transparent to this growth. New marketplace facilities will be needed for the investment record for a new fleet construction of flexibility.
Flexible resource outlook for Europe’s primary electricity markets
In the UK (GB force market), the network administrator has been pushed to its limits.
Renewable energy penetration record, even before closure
Even before the close was closed, the UK’s electricity market broke records for renewable energy penetration. In the first 3 months of the year, a record 47% of electricity from renewable energy sources was provided, compared to 36% in the first 3 months of 2019. This was basically due to the increased availability of wind resources. Balance prices at this time were relatively low.
It is simple to assume that the winter months, when peaks require, would create more demanding situations and higher prices for the network operator. Conversely, the grid can be the maximum solid at that time. Supported by the giant mass of synchronous turbines such as nuclear and gas, the grid is solid.
Balancing up prices with the start of the blockade
Demanding situations are maintained when higher VRE production matches low demand. This was resolved when the closure began on March 23.
During this period, we have noticed an average relief of 20% on the (National Grid) application that matches the best degrees of renewable energy penetration.
The great flexibility
As we have noticed in the UK, the residual capacity of the country (i.e. reserve thermal power plants) will have to be flexible to adapt to excessive load changes. Therefore, the need for flexibility has a system-wide effect: from turbines (e.g., Acceleration of start-up time, start/stop cycles and ramp capacity) to garage technologies (e.g. Batteries, hydrogen, hydro). active force networks (e.g. response call, prosother).
The lack of flexibility adds to the UK’s thirst for green force, but can only be achieved with long-term government support. Certainly, when the marginal production load of the VRE is 0, relief will be a balancing option. However, when looking to increase VRE penetration to allow a net strength system of 0, the excessive degrees of relief observed in the UK or Germany go against the increased political need. A bigger option would be to have more flexibility, especially forced storage. It can be used to move VRE at times when desired and provide a stack of facilities to balance the network.
That introduces a big question. Does our market want a complete overhaul to provide this new type of formula flexibility?
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics company, is trusted in business intelligence for the global herbal res industry. We allow our clients to make better strategic decisions, offering objective research and recommendations on assets, businesses and markets. For more information, visit: www.woodmac.com