Read The Diplomat, get to know Asia-Pacific
Both governments believe that vaccines will offer a way out of the economic and health crisis, but many obstacles remain.
Health at Jose B. Lingad Memorial Regional Hospital in San Fernando City, Philippines, May 9, 2020.
In late January, we learned that the Philippine economy contracted by about a tenth in 2020, as the aftermath of COVID-19 began to affect President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration. According to figures released through the Philippine Statistics Authority, GDP expansion for the year as a whole was minus 9. 5 percent, the worst economic contraction ever recorded.
The good news is that the crisis eased in the last quarter of the year, down 8. 3% from last year, largely thanks to higher government spending, after an 11. 4% contraction in the third quarter. But the annual recession is the worst the country has experienced in just three decades, and suggests the economic fallout from COVID-19 could worsen next year. As of Feb. 2, the Philippines recorded a total of 528,853 coronavirus infections and 10,874 deaths from the disease.
The only country that has noticed a worse scenario is Indonesia, which last month surpassed one million positive cases, becoming the 19th country to achieve this sad milestone and the first in Southeast Asia.
The economic effects of COVID-19 in Indonesia have been less severe than in the Philippines (the World Bank forecasts that the country’s GDP will contract by only 2. 2% in 2020), but its effects on public health have been particularly worse. You are seeing the rise in cases, last month the deadliest month for COVID-19 in Indonesia.
In fact, it’s probably much worse. Since Indonesia’s testing rate is one of the lowest in the world among the countries hardest hit by COVID-19, the actual number of cases may be up to 10 times higher, according to some experts. The number of COVID-19 deaths in Indonesia (30,277 as of February 1) is higher than that of all other Southeast Asian countries combined.
Indonesia and the Philippines share a number of common characteristics. The two countries are the two most populous countries in Southeast Asia, with many megacities and densely populated regions.
Both have been guided throughout the pandemic through small-town mayors who have suddenly gained national notoriety, promising a break with what in the Philippines are known as rags: “traditional politicians. “First, both ignored the risks of the disease, while members of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s cabinet sold a variety of quack remedies for the coronavirus, from prayers to herbal mangosteen juice. In February 2020, President Duterte even criticized the public for its “hysterical” attitude towards COVID-19.
Finally, like other countries that have failed to overcome COVID-19, both countries have relied heavily on vaccines as a way to defeat the virus. Last month, Jokowi won his required second dose of the CoronaVac vaccine, developed through China’s Sinovac Biotech. This came two weeks after his first shot, which ushered in Indonesia’s mass vaccination program, while Duterte plans to do the same in February.
Still, both countries have been slow to roll out vaccines. Last week, the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that Indonesia and the Philippines could need at least two years to achieve widespread vaccination rates, if not longer. He attributes this to the difficulty of buying enough vaccines amid intense global demand, the prices of transporting and distributing them in a timely manner, as well as the additional expenses needed to pay fitness professionals to administer the vaccines.
In fact, Indonesia’s vaccination program, which aims to vaccinate 180 million people by early 2022 (and 800,000 people each day), is behind schedule, largely due to logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ progress remains stuck in a quagmire. Overall, the country is lagging behind its neighbors in vaccines, with which the government hopes to vaccinate about 70 million more people, or two-thirds of the population, by the end of 2021.
This came amid reports of a thriving black market for COVID-19 vaccines and reports that Filipino bodyguards had already been vaccinated with an unauthorized vaccine smuggled in from China. Duterte’s government, like Jokowi’s in Indonesia, has also invested heavily in the vaccine developed in China. CoronaVac vaccine, despite lingering doubts about its efficacy. For either nation, the next few months will tell a lot about their ability to defeat COVID-19, or whether they will ultimately defeat them.
Understand the biggest issues in Asia and the Pacific with a subscription to The Diplomat.
In late January, we learned that the Philippine economy contracted by about a tenth in 2020, as the aftermath of COVID-19 began to take its toll on President Rodrigo Duterte’s government. According to figures released through the Philippine Statistics Authority, full-year GDP expansion was -9. 5 percent, the worst economic contraction ever recorded.
The good news is that the crisis eased in the last quarter of the year, with an 8. 3 percent drop from a year earlier, largely due to increased public spending, following an 11. 4 percent contraction in the third quarter. The annual recession is the worst the country has experienced in just three decades and suggests that the economic fallout from COVID-19 could worsen over the next year. As of Feb. 2, the Philippines had recorded a total of 528,853 coronavirus cases. infections and 10,874 deaths from the disease.
The only country that has noticed a worse scenario is Indonesia, which last month surpassed one million positive cases, becoming the 19th country to achieve this sad milestone and the first in Southeast Asia.
The economic effects of COVID-19 in Indonesia have been less severe than in the Philippines (the World Bank forecasts that the country’s GDP will contract by only 2. 2% in 2020), but its effects on public health have been particularly worse. You are seeing the rise in cases, last month the deadliest month for COVID-19 in Indonesia.
In fact, it’s probably much worse. Since Indonesia’s testing rate is one of the lowest in the world among the countries hardest hit by COVID-19, the actual number of cases may be up to 10 times higher, according to some experts. The number of COVID-19 deaths in Indonesia (30,277 as of February 1) is higher than that of all other Southeast Asian countries combined.
Indonesia and the Philippines share a number of common characteristics. The two countries are the two most populous countries in Southeast Asia, with many megacities and densely populated regions.
Both have been guided throughout the pandemic through small-town mayors who have suddenly gained national notoriety, promising a break with what in the Philippines are known as rags: “traditional politicians. “First, both ignored the risks of the disease, while members of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s cabinet sold a variety of quack remedies for the coronavirus, from prayers to herbal mangosteen juice. In February 2020, President Duterte even criticized the public for its “hysterical” attitude towards COVID-19.
Finally, like other countries that have failed to overcome COVID-19, both countries have relied heavily on vaccines as a way to defeat the virus. Last month, Jokowi earned his required second dose of the CoronaVac vaccine, developed through Chinese company Sinovac Biotech. This came two weeks after his first shot, which ushered in Indonesia’s mass vaccination program, while Duterte plans to do the same in February.
Still, both countries have been slow to roll out vaccines. Last week, the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that Indonesia and the Philippines could need at least two years to achieve widespread vaccination rates, if not longer. He attributes this to the difficulty of buying enough vaccines amid intense global demand, the prices of transporting and distributing them in a timely manner, as well as the additional expenses needed to pay fitness professionals to administer the vaccines.
In fact, Indonesia’s vaccination program, which aims to vaccinate 180 million people by early 2022 (and 800,000 people every day), is delayed, largely due to logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ progress remains stuck in a quagmire of problems. Overall, the country lags behind its neighbors in vaccines, with which the government hopes to vaccinate about 70 million people, or two-thirds of the population, by the end of 2021.
This came amid reports of a thriving black market for COVID-19 vaccines and reports that Filipino bodyguards had already been vaccinated with an unauthorized vaccine smuggled in from China. Duterte’s government, like Jokowi’s in Indonesia, has also invested heavily in the Chinese-developed vaccine. CoronaVac vaccine, despite lingering doubts about its effectiveness. For either nation, the coming months will say a lot about its ability to defeat COVID-19, or whether it will ultimately defeat them.
In late January, we learned that the Philippine economy contracted by about a tenth in 2020, as the aftermath of COVID-19 began to affect President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration. According to figures released through the Philippine Statistics Authority, GDP expansion for the year as a whole was minus 9. 5 percent, the worst economic contraction ever recorded.
The good news is that the crisis eased in the last quarter of the year, with an 8. 3 percent drop from a year earlier, largely due to increased public spending, following an 11. 4 percent contraction in the third quarter. The annual recession is the worst the country has experienced in just three decades and suggests that the economic fallout from COVID-19 could worsen over the next year. As of Feb. 2, the Philippines had recorded a total of 528,853 coronavirus cases. infections and 10,874 deaths from the disease.