With the declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic disease, countries around the world began to assess imaginable approaches to mitigate their severity: one imposes a national blockade, while another increases herd immunity. A recent study published in the prepress server medRxiv in August 2020 shows that blocking is an effective way to reduce the reach and speed of infections in a country.
Faced with the pandemic, Sweden sought collective immunity, hoping that this would protect the rest of the population by ensuring that the threat of exposure to the virus was reduced because chains of infection cannot spread among those who are immune to the virus.Proponents of the collective immunity technique argue that this is a strategy they like because blocking cannot prevent the spread of the virus and only stop it, at an unnecessary cost both economically and socially.
The blocking technique is recommended, on the other hand, because it decreases the actual number of reproductions – the average number of people inflamed by each inflamed individual. When fewer people become inflamed in this way, the chain of transmission is damaged and there are fewer cases to be treated as well.Despite much media debate on the most productive measures, blockade or collective immunity, and extensive studies on predictive strategies or equipment to measure adjustments in reproductive numbers, there was a lack of definitive knowledge about the effectiveness of blocking measures.
The existing study is based on a quasi-experimental strategy called discontinuous time series analysis (ITS), in which the result of interest is collected on several occasions, either before or after an express intervention, thus observing the trend of the result in time, to locate the effect of the intervention. In studies where randomization cannot or cannot be performed, this is a practice of choice.
As of 3 June 2020, the World Health Organization had shown approximately 279,000 and 38,500 cases of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (United Kingdom) and Sweden, respectively, with a death number of more than 39,000 and 4400 in those countries.two cases on 31 January 2020, and on 2 March the first COVID-related death was reported, which followed an escalation, and the closure was established on 23 March.
England and Sweden first opted for collective immunity, but England switched to blocking strategy later, partly because of a style that showed that without any intervention, around 510,000 more people in the UK would die from COVID-19.were selected for the direct comparison of daily case and death counts because the delay in reporting a blockade in the UK allowed the pre-blocking symbol in any of the countries to be very similar, a prerequisite for making inferences based on this data.
With the closure, other people in England were unable to freely leave their homes for work, department stores or social activities.This was to prevent the virus from spreading among others in close contact.
In Sweden, the first case was reported on the same day as in the UK and the first death on 11 March; however, Sweden has not followed the lockout strategy, instead choosing to hold the public accountable for their suitability through strict recommendations to stay at home to paint and avoid traveling, as far as possible, at social distance, and if they are over 70 or have the slightest symptom of COVID-19, stay home all the time.However, kindergartens and primary schools remained open.
Researchers used the effect of lockdown in England on daily instances and the rate of new instances and deaths in the first hundred days of confinement, compared to Sweden.They found that the occurrence of instances in England over 30 days more than 20,000 instances consisting of 10 million people, compared to 15,000 in Sweden.Thus, England had a relative occurrence of 1.32 cases.
In England, the occurrence rate of around 3,400 deaths is consistent with 10 million people, compared to 2,400 in Sweden.Thus, the relative occurrence of deaths 1.42.La the fatality rate in England and Sweden 17% and 16% respectively.
The study analysed any imaginable effect of the blockade, calculating the adjusted daily occurrence of instances and deaths in England and Sweden, relative to the population of those countries.He found that before the blockade, the adjusted daily occurrence of instances in England exceeded that of Sweden through 8 million people.On the day of lockdown, there were 693 cases consisting of 10 million inhabitants in England compared to Sweden.
COVID-19 deaths in England exceeded those in Sweden through 1.5 deaths consistent with the day consistent with another 10 million people before confinement.As a result, on the day of confinement he saw 50 more deaths consisting of 10 million inhabitants in England to Sweden..
After the blockade began, the occurrence of cases was reduced through 19 cases consisting of 10 million inhabitants in England, compared to Sweden.The mortality rate has declined through two deaths of 10 million people in England compared to Sweden.
And after the restrictions were lifted? In England, the blockade gradually lifted, but neither the daily occurrence of cases nor the mortality rate was higher at e-stage. In Phase 1, beginning on May 13, more people were allowed to travel abroad and move to work, while On June 1, with Phase 2, restrictions for young people were gradually introduced.More local transport systems were allowed to reopen in cities and a few more retail outlets.Two families may meet instead of those in the same household.
All these relaxations were accompanied by enhanced schooling in the observation of social distance, dressed in mask and hand hygiene.
The use of interrupted time series research has made it imaginable to stylize the atypical and dynamic expansion of the pandemic using comparisons, which allowed the two countries to be in comparison even though it was not transparent whether the same trends would continue, and because more complex styles may have a style in a nonlinear way.
Of course, other points of confusion could have affected the outcome, as they are remote countries, with other climates and geographies, but the use of tools, the presence of life expectancy and the outbreak of the pandemic at the same time decrease the likelihood of significant confusion, according to the authors.
The researchers conclude: “The estimated causal effect is the result of transparent anti-COVID-19 measures implemented across England but not through Sweden.”With the blockade at the site, daily instances decreased, accompanied by the daily mortality rate.
The study takes a look at the long-term effects of the epidemic, adding a new winter epidemic or a momentary wave, after the release of phase 3 of the blockade in England, which has already begun.However, it is undeniable that the favourable short-term long-term effects were observable after the UK blockade, due to an interruption in transmission.Scholars emphasize: “Future studies are needed to perceive the long-term net final results of the anti-COVID-19 policy implemented in both countries.”
medRxiv publishes initial clinical reports that are not peer reviewed and should therefore not be considered conclusive, the consultant’s clinical practice/health-related behaviors, nor treated as established information.
Written by
Dr. Liji Thomas is an obstetrician and gynecologist, graduating from the Faculty of Government Medicine of calicut University, Kerala, in 2001.Liji worked as a full-time representative in obstetrics/gynecology at a personal hospital for a few years after graduating.He pleaded with a lot of patients facing pregnancy and infertility-related problems, and has had a rate of more than 2,000 births, still striving to perform a general, surgical delivery.
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