This is the kind of argument you’ve heard before, perhaps too often, but not quite like this: the next generation of data and/or communications technologies will generate a new wave of productivity in the workplace. This wave will create a new foundation for profitability and industry that, directly or indirectly, will gain advantages for everyone in the global economy. It is to be expected that one of the main promoters of 5G Wireless will present this argument. Over the next few weeks, we have: Nokia’s main network and radio set.
But no one wants us to be in a pandemic, the depths of which would possibly not be fully explored. Therefore, the moment Nokia released this argument may also end up subjecting it to a review point that it may never have done. won when the most important factor in his agfinisha was Huawei.
As first reported through ZDNet’s Daphne Leprince-Ringuet, Nokia’s Bell Labs, the jewel in the world’s crown for 95 consecutive years, predicted in an October report that global businesses generated after the adoption of 5G would rise $8 trillion in global crude activity (GDP) by 2030.
If you’ve ever been editor-in-chief, you can already hear the sirens ringing in your head. Nokia’s press release read: “5G-compatible industries have the ability to offer a price of $8 billion to the global economy until 2030” [highlighted] A footnote explained that Bell Labs reached this conclusion “based on aggregate regional forecasts on how wage expansion, the expansion of profitability and the expansion of government profits will be affected by the expansion of generation spending. “It’s a very sensitive formulation. Here, Nokia uses “spending” as a non-name and not as a verb, meaning “investment” as opposed to “spending,” two very different categories from an economist’s point of view. The first anticipates a return; the latter would be only a cost.
Surprisingly, Nokia’s current report is formulated differently: under the name ‘Potential value and growth’, Bell Labs researchers wrote, ‘We expect the formulas of this economic equation, catalyzed through what 5G-enabled digitization generates global GDP up to $8 trillion until 2030. “No” until “yet” on par,” which in the latter case implies that $8 trillion of economic activity will have accumulated not in the next decade, but in a year without getting married. ZDNet radios have been verified, the difference is day and night.
“There were confusing things,” said Dr. Sherman Robinson, principal investigator at the International Food Policy Research Institute, referring to Nokia’s report, which he reviewed before his with ZDNet. Dr. Robinson is also professor emeritus of economics at the University of Sussex and a regular representative of the World Bank.
“They said GDP was happening, and they essentially looked at profits and wages, and the government approved,” he said. “It’s very confusing.
This is a small and misleading curve: this likely exponential accumulation of global GDP, as shown through knowledge collected through the World Bank. The confusion caused by Nokia’s report, Robinson believes, has to do with the correlation, or lack there, between business connectivity as a broad concept and GDP as a product of a particular formula. Sometimes GDP is decided from one angle or another:
Nokia has provided ZDNet with a written explanation of its methodology, we have not been legal to reproduce it, as it is lately being used for an upcoming unpublished report. In general, Nokia states that its researchers have studied the “gains” obtained in various sectors, through the adoption of its 5G business technology, as well as other methodologies that in turn use Nokia 5G. The company calls this global 5G wireless product portfolio “5G”.
“As a company, we have what we call a ‘productivity dilemma,'” Fuad Siddiqui said, talking to ZDNet. Siddiqui is the primary spouse and vice president of Nokia Bell Labs, and one of the main participants in the report. << Since the first and time of the trade revolutions, productivity expansion rates have declined since the 1950s. In fact, it can be argued that, since the 3rd trade revolution or the so-called "Internet age," productivity expansion rates have fallen over nearly a year. 3rd of what they were in the previous 50 to 70 years. "
Publicly, economic knowledge corroborates Siddiqui’s assertion, i. e. for more than 4 decades. As this productivity expansion graph shows, between complex economies such as the United States and Europe (the dark red line), bounces like a rolled-up cable on a busy trampoline, the trend line near this expansion is slightly downward. It is not that the global economy is contracting (it deserves to be contracting by 2020), but rather that the rate of expansion is declining. Note here, however, that “productivity” is measured per worker, as usual, not by industry or company.
Nokia’s wonderful productivity claim is attributed from the start to 5G:
Computers look less like productivity statistics.
The long-term price of 5G, as projected through Nokia’s report and those other 4, is based on something beyond the undeniable productivity attributable to 5G. However, Nokia’s report is perhaps the boldest of all. transformation that adjusts the global into the very nature of the company: a transformation where the commercial manufacture of physical goods jumps on the production of data technologies, to the main source of investment in communication technologies and, therefore, in 5G.
This transformation, the report says, “will have two basic effects: parity will be achieved between ICT investment and the contribution to industry GDP, and price creation will be catalyzed in all industries and ultimately in the world economy. “
Siddiqui told us that his research team had studied the main industries served through Nokia, looking for catalysts for productivity expansion. In 4 industry categories: physical care, communications, energy and transportation, cross-sectoral expansion begins to happen at a time when the benefits of one sector are passed on to others. Siddiqui attributes this sudden catalysis to an almost indeterminate force. “Several physical networking technologies came together here,” he said, “they merged at some point and then created a magic of aggregation. “
Unlike the first two commercial revolutions, what Siddiqui called the “golden century,” the third focused on customer and profit from intake rather than productivity. Siddiqui said:
Knowledge shows that countries have slightly moved the needle of productivity growth, put consumers in control and ended up making an investment in our infrastructure, but all that supply-side investment was basically used for entertainment. the needle. We have all those programs and all those tactics to distract us, but it doesn’t focus on productivity.
As mentioned above, 5G’s initial business style was based on a large wave of profits from updated customer devices to finance the large infrastructure projects needed to pave the planet with fiber. Nokia’s studies now suggest that telecom operators will have to look the other way: that customers will not be their initial source of capital. There is a cultural challenge here: an addiction to the available source of profit that, in the coVID era, adapts to a scarce good.
There are a number of sociological variables to consider, in addition to the economic ones, that is, the Nokia team is running to at least identify them, or even integrate them into their formula.
“We’ve noticed examples from other people who need to do their studies at home, on a giant scale, on a level we’ve never reached before,” dr. Sally Eaves, senior policy advisor at the Global Cyber Foundation in London. Studies and Research and contributor to Nokia’s report. In statements to ZDNet, Dr. Eaves continued:
We’ve had other people sitting under bridges because they can’t paint from home and they don’t have a connection. ArrayArray We have these virtual justice gaps all over the world and I think generally not everyone is aware of them. One of the effects of the COVID experience, which is still ongoing, is that it has exposed those things: things that were invisible become much more visible. It is a sham what we have those days. But, unfortunately, there is no democracy of access to the generation. It is not the same. And we’ve had a lot of cases, either in the UK or the US, where you are supposed to have an Apple where you can paint your house, or you have a working website and are accessible. Unfortunately this is not the case. We want to have the ultimate access point across the world. We want to have reliable data; we will have to have a cellular signal. Everything else, when communicating about the edge and artificial intelligence, and all the other advancements that we have in the generation, if we don’t have that underlying foundation, that excludes a lot of other people from the opportunity it provides.
Dr. Eaves later reported that the creation of the COVID-19 high-performance computing consortium is a positive example of giant service providers for a non-unusual cause. She thinks corporations in the telecommunications ecosystem can do something similar for 5G, “to help fill virtual and physical gaps even more. “
It can be argued that inequality among staff has contributed more to curbing global economic expansion than any degree of passivity caused by media abundance.
“When COVID arrived, we learned that the source infrastructure we were building and the investments we made can rotate to meet real human business needs,” Fuad Siddiqui said, proposing the production of life-saving appliances to hospitals and delivering products. to homes and businesses, as two examples. These examples serve to demonstrate, as he explained, the conversion of the virtual industry into the physical industry, the reinvestment of capital into responsibilities that lend themselves more to measurable growth.
It is this alchemical conversion that will be necessary, according to the Bell Labs team, for 5G to make an $8 trillion contribution to the global economy, either over time or as a lump sum. Siddiqui estimates that the existing design of economies established around the world, such as the United States, is weighted in such a way that 70% of its ICT investments are directed towards 30% of its industries. Over the next decade, the Nokia report says, the fusion phenomenon that Siddiqui alluded to – the “magic of aggregation” – can lead to a setback, according to which about 65% of ICT investments will target what Nokia calls “enhanced physical industries. “Nokia defines this organization as organizations whose business models have been remodeled through the adoption of “large-scale end-to-end 5G technologies over the next decade. “
The way this ambiguous magic translates into an undisputed economic metric is based on waves of layered aggregation. He told ZDNet that his researchers started with a reference price they called companies’ source-based ICT spending, whose purpose was to download a 5G activation factor, basing their forecasts on a Bass 5G adoption transmission style in 8 regions of the world, they chose a country to include all regions, for example, the United States for North America , Germany for Western Europe and South Africa for Africa.
The Nokia team then developed security, productivity, power and resiliency (SPER) price estimates in 11 service sectors. The resulting variables were used to produce what is known as the 5G expansion style of Bell Labs Consulting. This style explains an 11% minimization in overall investment. The pandemic era, however, is followed by a recovery era of four years from 2021. During this era, Siddiqui estimates, investments in physical enterprises (virtual enterprises) will accelerate even though everything stabilizes until 2030.
As the 5G form plos angelestform moves to a model as a service, Nokia’s method continues, with elements of the plos angelestform form adapted to the angels’ menu, reducing acquisition prices and contributing additionally to productivity.
Nokia researchers have observed how some commercial consumers (their names, so far omitted) have followed the first editions of their independent 5G platform for businesses. Looking at what Siddiqui called “inputs” and “exits,” the team calculated how consumer productivity increases contributed to the productivity of their home countries. “We use that,” he told us, “and then we calculate the resulting contribution to GDP. “This contribution is called the 5G GDP multiplier. Researchers used this multiplier to estimate the contribution of all corporations in a given category as an aggregate.
In short, Nokia sampled some consumer companies, estimated their productivity grades in the absence of 5G, took their productivity gains as coefficients, and implemented those coefficients as points for the rest of their industry. We then add those industries for their respective countries, countries for their global regions, and regions for the global in general.
“Nothing is certain. What we present, with a lot of research, modeling and genuine life experiences,” Siddiqui said, “was the confluence of those points to say, “This is a genuine opportunity that awaits us. “If we sign for strength and unite the various actors in the ecosystem, this is a genuine opportunity to reshape our industries, those backward and cutting-edge physical industries, that we saw, at the first and then, the trade revolutions, how they overloaded the economy. “
Is that the kind of tactic that would do a serious macroeconomic test?Specifically, is this what these types of studies have done from the beginning: model individual bodies and apply their gains and losses to the rest of the economy in the form of aggregates in aggregates?
We asked who does this kind of thing as a component of their job: Michael R. Ward, PhD. , Is a professor of economics at the University of Texas at Arlington. In 2014, Professor Ward and Shilin Zheng from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences produced an in-depth examination of economic growth points, adding exactly the phenomenon that Nokia Bell Labs has sought to observe, in China alone, and according to history. They studied how cellular communications revolutionized the Chinese economy, both culturally and industrially.
Like Bell Labs’ report, Ward and Zheng assume that the effect on telecommunications is a positive thing that can be expressed as a variable. Like Bell, Ward is involved in higher productivity gains possibly inspiring some regions to adopt a more liberal economy. thus converting the variables used to calculate expansion into the first position; let’s call it “digital transformation. “In addition, Ward learned that things of expansion in one region can have domino effects on another.
“We have those technologies to verify to estimate the productivity of those technologies,” Ward told ZDNet. “The challenge with computing is that it fits so fast that we don’t have a long enough time series. “
A lot of microeconomic studies over the more than two decades, Ward told us, have tested commercial and monetary activity at the plant level, identifying express points that can contribute to productivity. The challenge for economists and researchers is to do this at the macro level, especially with a generation that can take a while before anything else replaces it. IT infrastructure can be the most productive candidate, at least normally, because it’s the last layer of computing to change. But telecom operators are already talking about 6G.
We asked Ward if it would be feasible for a college exam to use the same technique as Bell Labs: producing sample-based aggregate grades.
“That’s true, but you have to be very careful with that, ” replied Ward. “Do you want to think about which corporations are doing this now? It’s going to have to be the leading corporations. They’re probably using the most productive applications. “
A major German automaker, for example, would possibly have a talent for adapting new technologies to their processes and would therefore possibly be the first to make such adjustments. all its German competition or, to go further, to the productivity profile of French car manufacturers.
“If you apply that to some other country, you’ll probably have to reduce it by a safe amount,” Ward said. “I don’t know what that amount is. “
In addition, historically, the first users of a generation gain advantages from the largest load reductions, but not so much for those who follow it. Therefore, any multiplier sought through researchers cannot be expressed as a constant.
Then we ask Professor Ward, when researchers examine the effect of a phenomenon on a country’s economy, how do they calculate what GDP would have been or would be in the absence of such a phenomenon?Ward replied:
This has been a wonderful revolution in economics, and the social sciences in general, for the past twenty years: what they call causal inference. We are very sensitive to the complaint that correlation is not causal. So what we’re looking for is to get to the bottom of correlations that are maximum maximum are probably causally related. . . What we believe we have discovered is a causal dating between broadband and growth. If you believe this, then more long-term broadband deserves to give you the same growth dating, as long as the long term is sufficiently similar to the past.
Ward and Zheng studied broadband penetration in each Chinese province. When a province had greater penetration than a neighbor, that neighbor was thought of as counterfactual, indicating what the cases might have been like if broadband had not been as frequent. In this way, long-term expansion trends for limited regions of the world, or safe industries in regions, can be rationally extrapolated as a result of a measurable phenomenon. The following situations should apply:
Sherman Robinson’s joy at observing the effect of a generation on the economy dates back to the 1960s, he told ZDNet:
Me at the Congressional Budget Office when other people were looking to understand: “How do we measure the contribution of computers to GDP?Let’s see if they’re more productive?My boss at the time said, “Well, wait a minute. Moore’s Law is up and running, and the device is much faster, but it doesn’t speed up the speed at which my secretary writes a letter. “If you take something like Moore’s Law and apply it to economic data, that’s not true. He wants to make other people more productive.
When the economy goes well, we can safely position our hopes and dreams in cruise control, thinking more about our goals than the media, more about fate than adventure. An additional economic activity valued at $8 trillion turns out to be a well-deserved dessert. When this same economy is physically attacked through an invisible invader, suddenly each and every step of our adventure counts, and our anxiety about tripping along the way increases. We pay more attention to how we take the instructions.
Or that’s an ambitious goal, too.
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