Coronavirus today: the theory of laboratory leakage

Good night. I’m Karen Kaplan and it’s Tuesday, March 14. Happy Pi Day! Here’s the latest news on what’s happening with the coronavirus in California and beyond.

There’s one word that’s been used a lot during the pandemic, repeated by others who were skeptical about new COVID-19 vaccines, who want to take public health precautions, or scientifically sound studies that have debunked beloved remedies like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin.

“Do your research. “

Usually, the other people who say this are not biologists who examine viruses and their origins. But Michael Worobey is the exception.

Worobey heads the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona and, like many others, is curious about the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. He claims the virus escaped from a study lab at the China Institute of Virology in Wuhan may have been dismissed as politically motivated, but Worobey and 17 other clinical experts suggested their colleagues keep their brains open and not conclude that an inflamed animal transmitted the virus to humans.

After all, “knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical to informing global methods for mitigating the threat of long-term outbreaks,” they wrote in a 2021 open letter in the journal Science. “We want to take assumptions about the consequences of herbs and the lab seriously. until we have enough data. “

So Worobey went out and retrieved the data.

As he recounts in The Times, he thought a lab leak was “plausible” but less likely than a “zoonotic” situation in which the virus passed from an animal to a user, especially after a study in the journal Scientific Reports documented that rainy markets in Wuhan sold animals known to bring coronaviruses similar to the one that causes COVID-19.

“The task of a scientist is to kick the tires of a speculation, to check to falsify it,” Worobey writes. “I submitted all my other studies to verify and falsify the assumption that the pandemic in one of those markets, Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where many of the earliest known COVID patients worked. “

Here’s how he did it:

First, he looked at the genetic sequences of viruses being studied in the Wuhan lab by a scientist named Shi Zhengli. He saw that they were too far from SARS-CoV-2 to be to blame for the outbreak.

Then, he wondered if the explanation for why so many of the early COVID-19 cases had ties to the Huanan market is that Chinese researchers focused their attention there. This turned out not to be the case because the government had not monitored the market over time. In fact, doctors discovered that many of their patients with the mysterious new type of pneumonia had ties to the market.

Wuhan has a population of around 11 million, and only about 1,500 of them paint in Huanan’s market position. However, 10 of the first 19 COVID-19 patients had ties to market position. With the help of others, he mapped patients’ homes to see if any other positions would emerge as a possible epicenter. The effects reinforced the fact that market position was the epicenter, as it provided a missing geographical link for patients who said they did not paint or shop there.

Other evidence came from stall tests conducted after the market closed by Chinese authorities. Evidence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus likely occurs in stalls where live mammals or meat were sold. (Unfortunately, the animals themselves were not tested before being removed. )

Worobey and his colleagues also tested cell phone knowledge to measure traffic in and out of Huanan marketpositionposition and compare it to other public places like schools, restaurants and shopping malls. Given this, the only realistic way for Huanan’s market position to be the epicenter of the outbreak is for it to be the position where the virus first appeared.

It didn’t happen once, but at least twice. This detective component becomes more complicated.

It turns out that there were two distinct lineages of SARS-CoV-2, known as A and B, and both had geographical ties to the Huanan market. Worobey and the others understood this before they knew that Line A had been detected there. . But such emerged in February 2022.

A deep dive into the evolutionary history of more than 700 early SARS-CoV-2 sequences revealed that the lineages descended from variants circulating in mid-December 2019. This corresponds to a situation where other inflamed people were confined to a limited geographical area. area. area around the market.

All of this leads Worobey to the conclusion that the pandemic almost in fact began with zoonotic transmission, not a lab leak. in a city the size of Wuhan, PC simulations recommend that “about one-third of transmissions will lead to an epidemic,” he writes.

It is still unclear why the Energy Ministry recently concluded, albeit with “low confidence,” that the pandemic began with a lab leak. If it is because no one has been able to identify an animal carrying the virus, it would possibly be explained by the fact that the market closed before such tests were carried out. If it’s too much of a coincidence that the first cases of COVID-19 are occurring in a city that houses a virology lab that studies coronaviruses, Worobey will. let him know that “the vast majority” of China’s largest cities have labs that do this kind of work (Beijing has four).

“I’m open to any evidence that supports a laboratory origin of the pandemic,” Worobey says like a true scientist. “So far, we have no such evidence. “

Case and in California at 5:28 p. m. Tuesday:

Track California’s coronavirus and vaccination efforts, adding the latest numbers and their breakdown, with our charts.

Gallegos’ family members didn’t need to get vaccinated against COVID-19 because they didn’t know the disease was harmful, until the death of a family friend prompted them to reconsider.

That’s when Gallegos, a student at Theodore Roosevelt High School in southeast Fresno, jumped at her chance. Fortunately for them, it is a promoter.

In Latin American communities, a promotora is an unlicensed but trusted fitness employee who encourages others to prioritize their fitness and helps others find the medical resources they need. COVID-19 through schooling and awareness.

Gallegos before the apprehensions of his relatives with facts. In the end, she convinced them to get vaccinated.

“My circle of relatives is fully vaccinated now,” he said, “but we learned the hard way. “

Along with 34 other students, Gallegos learned how to communicate about COVID-19 vaccines in a way that would ease people’s fears and motivate them to keep getting the more sensible booster shot. He told Heidi de Marco of Kaiser Health News that he joined the program. so that other families would not have to lose a loved one, like yours.

Now she is the go-to of her classmates when they have questions about COVID-19. These are the end results expected by officials when they designed the program for adolescents 16 years and older.

“Teens talk and get a wonderful response,” said Marco Sandra Celedon, executive director of Fresno Building Healthy Communities. “At awareness events, other people naturally need to talk to the young person. “

Students in California, as well as Colorado, New Mexico and Michigan, are being trained to serve as COVID-19 vaccine educators through the Oakland-based FACES for the Future coalition. In Florida, top academics participating in the Health Information Project communicate with their peers about vaccine safety, among other fitness-related topics.

Adults count on teens to make injections less threatening and improve vaccination rates, especially for the new booster vaccine targeting Omicron. Only 16. 3% of Americans have earned it since its launch in September, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The figure is even lower for Latinos, about 8. 5 percent, according to the CDC. Language barriers and lack of exposure to reliable data are two reasons, and teens like Alma can be on either front.

“It makes sense that we look at our youth as COVID educators for their peers and families,” said Dr. Tomás Magaña of UC San Francisco. “And when we communicate about the Latino community, we want to think deeply and creatively about how to succeed in them. “

Alma and her fellow promotoritos earned 20 hours and now earn educational credits plus $16 consistent with the hour for their outreach work. This includes visiting local businesses to distribute coronavirus verification kits and answering questions about COVID-19.

“I think it’s smart for them to be aware and not afraid to share their wisdom about COVID-19,” said restaurateur Chris Vang, who won the scale on (and check kits) from Alma and 3 of his compatriots. those checks to those who want them: consumers and employees. “

Discover advances in vaccination in California with our tracker.

Saturday marked the third anniversary of the day the World Health Organization transitioned from the COVID-19 outbreak to a full-fledged pandemic. This turns out to be a good time to think about what the advantage looks like now: the coronavirus or us?

The virus is still killing more than 250 Americans every day, according to the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, and the WHO’s coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard indicates the global number is several times higher. No one foresees a situation in which the virus disappears, and as long as it continues to circulate, we may be a few mutations away from a new variant that will wipe out our recent progress.

That said, humanity now has hard-won immunity beyond infections and vaccines. This has allowed many other people to return to a general lifestyle to the fullest. fall. )

Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray prefers to look on the bright side. An infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins, says that while the coronavirus has evolved to be more contagious, our herd immunity likely means COVID-19 will never be as harmful as it was. in its first year.

But Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Translational Research Institute in La Jolla, says the virus hasn’t given up, and neither have we.

“Whatever the virus does today, it’s still looking for another winning path,” Topol said. “I would like us to unite against the enemy, the virus, than against others. “

Long COVID is a reminder that 2023 is not the same as 2019. In a recent survey by the COVID-19 Pandemic Research Center at USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, more than a portion of County citizens who contracted COVID-19 reported symptoms that persisted more than 4 weeks after being infected.

The most common symptoms were excessive fatigue, mental confusion and persistent coughing. Others included depression or anxiety, body aches, trouble sleeping, headaches, joint pain, trouble breathing, and loss of taste or smell.

Perhaps the most troubling finding is that 77% of other people with long-term COVID said their symptoms interfered with their ability to interact in regime activities such as going to work, seeing friends, and tending to their private needs. About 25 percent of long-haul aircraft said they faced “significant limitations. “

“Most other people with prolonged COVID are slowly starting to get better. However, there are also other people who have had prolonged COVID for many months or even years, resulting in disability,” said Barbara Ferrer, director of the fitness department. He added that “no one is immune to prolonged COVID, even if they are fit and even if their infection is mild. “

Speaking of coronavirus infections, California Governor Gavin Newsom has one for the time being. He tested positive Wednesday after presenting mild symptoms of COVID-19 and being able to continue operating remotely (including launching Zoom to announce a lawsuit against Huntington Beach over its ban). in certain types of housing projects).

Aside from the governor, California’s maximum looks wonderful on the CDC’s community-level COVID-19 map. The number of counties in the “average” category has dropped to nine, with Sacramento being the most populous of them. The rest of the state: adding all of Southern California, is in the “low” zone. Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties saw their case rates drop in the last week of reporting.

Remember that luxurious retirement home on the west side of Los Angeles?Where did thirteen citizens and one nurse die in the first weeks of the pandemic?Three managers were charged with thirteen counts of elder abuse and five counts on Tuesday. All fees are crimes.

The deaths occurred during an outbreak in March 2020 that began when Silverado Beverly Place admitted a patient from New York City, which at the time was the country’s COVID-19 epicenter. The nursing home’s policies stipulated not to settle for new patients from high-risk areas. However, the man was detained without being tested for coronavirus infection. He evolved symptoms of COVID-19 the next day and has not yet been quarantined, prosecutors said.

By the time the virus spread through the facility, 45 and 60 citizens were infected. Silverado has already been sued in court civil. La company that manages the facility did not immediately rule on the fraud charges.

And finally, the pandemic has produced countless occasions of partisanship, but last week it provoked the opposite. On Friday, members of the House of Representatives voted unanimously to declassify data from the U. S. intelligence network. The U. S. Department of Health and Prevention on the origins of COVID-19. I’m not kidding – the vote 419 to 0.

The bill had already passed the Senate by unanimous consent. Now it’s up to President Biden to sign it or not.

As discussed above, the U. S. Department of Energy has a major impact on the agenda. The U. S. Department recently decided that the pandemic virus escaped from a lab. The FBI had reached the same conclusion in the past, while other agencies disagree or remain undecided.

Regardless of the evidence they have, it will have to be shared with the public, said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo. ), who sponsored the bill. “Other Americans deserve to know the truth,” he said.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn. ), the ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, agreed that “transparency is the cornerstone of our democracy. “

Today’s comes from readers who need to know: Does it still make sense for my choir to have a vaccination requirement, especially if it only applies to initial shots and not boosters?

To some extent, yes.

“Any immunity, through vaccination or herbal infection, is better than none,” said Dr. Edward Jones-Lopez, an infectious disease specialist at USC’s Keck Medicine.

That said, if your choir plans to meet its vaccination requirement, you should also modify it to include the new bivalent booster, Jones-Lopez said.

Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna’s initial two-dose COVID-19 vaccine regimen has done a great job of protecting people, but the more time passes, the greater the need for updated boosters, he said. The coronavirus continues to evolve and Omicron the subvariants circulating today are other of the strain that the original vaccines taught the immune formula to recognize. In addition, antibodies and some other cells in the immune formula shrink over time.

“Booster shots are surely recommended,” Jones-Lopez said. The recommendations for any organizing assembly would be to be up to date with all vaccines. “

We need to hear from you. Please email us your coronavirus inquiries and we will do our best to answer them. Wondering if your inquiry has already been answered? Check out our archives here.

The photo above would likely look like a memory of the early days of the pandemic, but it was taken this month. So, if all those travelers wearing masks seem to be citizens of a parallel universe. . . Well, you’re right.

They are in Tokyo and covering their faces because since Monday, the Japanese government has withdrawn its 3-year request for members of the public to mask themselves.

Travelers weren’t the only ones slow to accept the government’s offer. Fans with tickets to Monday’s World Baseball Classic games at the Tokyo Dome showed up covered in masks. Published symptoms to let consumers know they can remove theirs.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was without a mask when he arrived at work, but several lawmakers masked themselves for a televised budget committee meeting.

“As of today, wearing a mask is left to individual judgment,” Kishida told reporters. “We don’t force you to use it or take it away. “

If the afterlife is a guide, those masks are likely to stay in place for some time. Last summer, the Japanese government told citizens they would only avoid wearing masks outdoors, but they are still a common position.

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Karen Kaplan is scientific and medical editor at the Los Angeles Times. Before joining the clinical group, he worked in the Business section. He graduated from MIT and Columbia University.

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